also whats the difference between an elephant candle and a news candle?
C will get into that later on in this thread, i want everyone to get every concept covered thus far before i move on to news trading and additions................now i am looking to see everyone post tech analysis for a pairof there choice everyday similar to the one i posted..................becuase doing that will mean that your already projecting price way ahead of time...........anticpating the direction of the market, with a good technical analysis, is the grail of trading................its part of a trading plan................its so important..............C there is no difference if they form the same shape, but you have to be aware that if you enter a elephant on news release it can badly reverse on you…this will be covered later on in this thread as part of news trading…good question C, just i am not convinced that everyone is current with everything so far…my commitment, is to get everyone to be able to trade for a living…its a must that everything covered so far is imprinted.301 Moved Permanently
My meeting lasted all day today, or from end of London to late Asian session by the time I got home and had dinner and could get to my computer which I had some correspondance to deal with first…and now time for bed again 
Glad to see I didn’t miss much, but it doesn’t look like any forecasting before Thursday cuz it is Thurs…lol…great idea tho, look forward to getting into that 
so ......................AUD USD example for today.....
AUD/USD has formed a Double Top pattern on the 1D chart.
daily chart = short overall
Pair is trading at Fibonacci retracement (38.2% of move since 1st of June, 2012) at 1.0219; pattern’s support is at 1.0167; pattern’s peaks are at 1.0614/25. .
The Demarker indicator on 1W horizon suggests that we might see a bearish rally on the pair in the near future. Short traders could focus on pattern’s support/weekly pivot (S3) at 1.0167/50 and Fibonacci retracements at 1.0098 (50%) and 0.9976 (61.8%).
1 hour Chart - Short term Bullish
Bearish down trend contained at support Daily Support 1.02440 and market is now testing resitance 1.0175. If resitance is broken, shorterm long postion squeeze up to the 200 SMA
2- If support 1.02440 is broken then short postions apply, for the medoium term to S3
Main fundamental events who might have impact on the development of the pair are US FOMC Meeting Minutes on 4th of October, G7 meeting on 10th of October and Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on 15th of October.
Thanks SP…becuase if we are doing that then everything covered in this thread so far is understood…when we get to this forecasting level, then you are at the stage of trading when you know what to look for at a glance…i will make robots out of everyone, we are machines when we trade…
guys understand why i am persiting on anyliysis…on my posts recently…understand this example below.
ok we looking at a chart and we see a candle close on the 1 hour below the 20 period of a potential squeeze up to the 200SMA.
so we enter to go long for the squeeze. Next thing we get blown out are stop is taken out and the price blows short backwards through the 20 period away from the 200 and we lost. So the SQ sucks in this instance right?
Well here this! if we did our tech study, when we entered the SQ we may have noticed that a daily chart major resistance was 2 pips away long from our entry. So thats why…
another example
price goes long at a daily support which is 3 pips from a SQ , so you long at the SQ…price smashes through the 200 and in 1 hour you just made 200 pips profit…thats why…we must do our tech analysis using evrything covered so far in this thread…Tech will make your understanding of what type of market your in be relalistic and your entried for bc , squeeze kamakazi validated…result: Champs from bottles with models
We just gotta put it altoghther
yes there are factors, thats why i am persisting on tech analysis for pairs…your entry was on a daily support resistance area, you got blown out from it …thats why i am persisting on the putting it all together with sound analysis…i wont cover anything else untill we got it nailed BECUASE I KNOW ITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TRADING FOR A LIVING AND TRADING TO LOOSE SOME AND WIN SOME…ITS THAT IMPORTANT…ITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SUCCESS AND FAILURE…ITS CRITICAL…SORRY TO BE SO BORING BUT ITS THAT CRITICAL, I HAVE TO SOUND LIKE A OLD RECORD…REPEATING, IF YOU LOOSE I FAIL…I MADE A COMMITMENT TO ALL OF YOU! TO MAKE YOU FT’S IF THATS YOUR CHOICE ONE DAY TO BE…
roger that T_T
i will be on skype 2row,anyone needs additional help, post here or skype
Ok so go to Daily,
mark horizontal lines where price has tested at least 2 or 3 times
go to 4H and mark horizontal lines where price has tested at least 2 or 3 times
mark channels (or trend lines) on the 1H
anything else
ok im getting this because the 4H channel/ Daily S&R/ 1H S&S was all in the way of the squeeze. so you have to wait for price to break those and then go short. ok lets say price brakes all those cant it still retrace a little and then enter like ICT or no, we enter as soon as price closes under all those barriers?
spot on…and use projected fibs or standard fibs its your choice…add a stoch or rsr or Demark if you need a bit more confirmation, its your choice…
the market will 99% of the time be in play within those markings on the chart. you will find that fibs are more accurate when they line up on an important level that coincides with an important S&R from the daily or channel…then your SQ entry or BC is spot on when you pay attention to the S&R. Remember those SQ that bounces short when you went long…see the daily S&R…its like a advance warning once it all on the chart…then you can plan your trade on good judgment…
Ok thats why fibs are important, im use to using stoch and rsi so il just use them, after price brakes the barriers il check if rsi is more or less than 50
thats right C. but you can play it either way...........
example you may target from SQ to the Daily Resistance…instead of targeting the 200 SMA…
example you may target from SQ to 40 pips above the 200 SMA as theres only a daily resitance showing 40 pips above the 200.
example: you may not enter at sq as the daily s&R is your entry point before the SQ
example you may enter the SQ but decide not to as the barrier is only 10 pips from an SQ entry…
you may use a s&R for entry or exit, or a fib
btw u havent mentioned how to properly use the 50 sma and 20sma
i mean basically what are they for?
you will have to go back through the posts from about page 5 onwards all is covered
basically we use the 20 to make the squeeze trade 20 +price+ 200. also when price is trending we look at pullbacks to the 20 to take additional entries, BL entries.
We use the 13 to smooth price and works well during volatile markets.
All of the MA;s mentioned above are a must …
now personal choices, when you need additional filters, the 50 and 100 work well. partularly to confirm additional entries at key places on the chart… sometimes price will ignore everything, so you may plot a 50, and find the pair is respecting the 50 for now in the short term…if it dont fit! dont wear it
now most importantly, a fool would short a bull market! if price is above the 200 and is trading above the 20 and price is rising its a Bull Market .
If we trade a squeeze we are trading sentiment before the big move, a confluance with a daily support ends sentiment real quick
I do not trade retracement, as retracement is always counter trend meaning, retracement short is going short in a Bull Market. I do not do that. Becuase its a wipe out of profits with one bad move…only time i would short a bull market is to lock in profit HEDGE a long position during retracment or consolidation. Or i want to go for a bevy and dont want to close my trade…