Here is part of my weekend data. I have broken down my view on the patterns/trends on the AUDUSD and EURAUD pairs. Enjoy.
[B]Overview:[/B]
The Aussie has been a major player for the last few months. Since July it has risen an outstanding 17 percent over the dollar. It seems that for the time being risk appetite is in full swing. The other commodity pairs support this strength.
[B]Technicalities:[/B]
Technical data supports a continued trend as a beautiful crab (see chart below) pattern has formed on the AUDUSD pair and a very strong downward channel on the EURAUD continues to push the pair further down.
[B]
Fundamentals:[/B]
Continued EUR fear could hinder the AUD but so far it hasn’t done so to any great extent. The delay in USD strengthening because of the current QE2 doesn’t seem like it will trigger any sort of risk aversion and, with the dollar heading toward total devaluation, who would use it as a safe haven anyway (exaggerating, I know. I’m just pissed because I can’t print 20’s out of my printer but Ben Bernanke is keeping the presses hot). I expect a significant return of dollar strength to show up within the next year and we could see the crab pattern complete and signal the sentiment change. Fear of a “double-dip” or second recession seems to have mostly abated, leaning to the idea that risk appetite will continue.
[B]Trading Plan:[/B]
I will continue to look for AUD bullish patterns that fit my trading plan. Both of these pairs have been doing an excellent job lately of completing and following Gartleys and, as you can see from yesterday’s meetpips, a good deal of my trades have come from them.
As always, I’m a newer trader so please take my notes along with your own research. Please feel free to comment if you disagree with anything. Good Luck!
