Hi traders, I know it’s been awhile since I last post on Babypips, but to bring some content on Babypips I was thinking on posting my trades here while also act as an open trading journal to keep me accountable in my trading journey. So i will try to be consistent and hope you can get something out of this and help on your trading journey as well !
Risk Disclaimer: is is not a financial advice and trading financial instruments involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite before deciding to trade. You could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment.
Photo by Clemens van Lay on Unsplash
1 Like
13/06/2023
Today i took two trades early in the New York session which I find it interesting/
EUR/AUD Long
TF: 1 Hour
Price: 1.5919
SL: 1.5993
TP: 1.5806
Hold duration: 24 hours
Risk: 1% of capital
Reason: Clean break and retest in a strong downtrend with a sell signal from the MACD, which aligns with the H4 trend. The recent ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came out at -10, which showed even falling sentiment from the EUR, which can be negative for the currency pair.
NZD/JPY Long
TF: 1 Hour
Price: 85.77
SL: 85.44
TP: 86.27
Hold duration: 24 hours
Risk: 1% of capital
Reason: A break and retest pattern in an uptrend and a MACD buy signal with risk on market sentiment readings from the bullish stock market and low VIX, also positive yield differential for the NZD against the JPY.
1 Like
Ooooh! 
Excited for you, Toshiro! Good luck with your trading journal and I’ll be cheering for youuu!
1 Like
Update:
EUR/AUD LONG BEP
Evaluation:
Trade already hit the 24 hour holding duration and ends out at a small win but I considered to be a BEP trade. Seems like the price action is evolving into a trading range as price was unable to make new lows. No reason to hold on to the trade.
NZD/JPY LONG TAKE PROFIT
Evaluation: Excellent trade overall, trend alignment was there and backed up by risk on market sentiment and price hit TP as anticipated within the holding period.
Thanks Ria !!! really appreciate your support and I hope can be of help in your trading journey as well from my post
14/06/2023
Today, not much of interest I could find on the forex pair, however crude oil does catches my interest.
XTI/USD Short
TF: 1 Hour
Price: 69.73
SL: 70.93
TP: 67.91
Hold duration: 24 hours
Risk: 1% of capital
Reason: A break and retest after price makes a two-leg pullback to the key resistance level and the strong bearish engulfer. The overall outlook for crude oil still remains weak, even after the recent supply cut. However, the 67 handle remains a solid support level to keep an eye on and probably want to exit before that. Also from the way core inflation remains persistent yesterday to 5.3% from 5.5%, seems like there is a possible for a “hawkish” pause coming from the FED, which can be dollar positive and bearish for commodities.
1 Like
Update:
XTI/USD PARTIAL PROFITS
Evaluation: The FED made a hawkish pause in their recent monetary policy decision as they wanted inflation to fall at a faster rate, which sparks some nice volatility in the trade. However, after reaching the holding period, the price almost hit TP and reversed. It is what it is, I would say, and I stuck with the plan and exited according to the plan.
1 Like
15/06/2023
Today in the early New York session, I only took one trade that I found most appealing from a technical and fundamental standpoint.
GBP/USD LONG
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 1.2667
SL: 1.2615
TP: 1.2773
Holding period: 48 Hours
Reason: Break and retest pattern, followed by a two-leg pullback and a nice double bottom at the support level, with the MACD also almost giving us a buy signal, but hence bearish momentum seems to be falling at the support level, which validates the support level. Fundamentally, we have the BoE in need of being somewhat more aggressive in raising rates to combat inflation (Core) while the US recently took a hawkish pause and with falling inflation.
1 Like
Update:
GBP/USD HIT TAKE PRIOFIT
Evaluation: A really nice trade as price immediately hit TP in a short matter of time than what is expected. A very high quality trade indeed where technical and fundamental support one another.
1 Like
16/06/2023
Last day in the trading week, and I took two trades today as I see the USD weakening and market sentiment to be risk-on.
XTI/USD LONG
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 71
SL: 69.96
TP: 72.60
Holding period: 24 Hours
Reason: Break and retest pattern formed following a big break to the upward, indicating a bullish bias. In addition, the USD is dropping as the FED just halted its interest rate decision. When the dollar falls in value, commodities denominated in dollars normally benefit.
AUD/JPY LONG
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 97.16
SL: 96.49
TP: 98.17
Holding period: 24 Hours
Reason: A clean break and retest pattern in a strong uptrend. Also recently, the BoJ changed their monetary policy, which makes the AUD more interesting for carry play. Sentiment is also currently at risk with the stock market rising and low VIX readings.
1 Like
Update
XTI/USD LONG PARTIAL PROFIT
Evaluation: The trade went in our favor but expired as it went over the holding period. So keep the discipline and take profit at a small win. Trend identification was good, entry was good, and discipline was in check. Move on to the next trade.
AUD/JPY LONG BEP
Evaluation: The trade initially went in our favor but then gave back all of the gains, and as the holding period expired, it was a net BEP. It seems like the trend is starting to mature, as the entry was made when the bullish trend had been trending for quite some time. Discipline was in check, not hope or greed. Move on to the next trade.
1 Like
19/06/2023
Today, I took one trade and may considered to be more of a swing trade as it was on the 4H timeframe, but trade was good enough to take.
EUR/CAD SHORT
Timeframe: 4H
Price: 1.4412
SL: 1.4485
TP: 1.4289
Holding period: 1 week
Reason: Break and retest pattern at a downtrend and price makes another pullback and MACD giving out a sell signal, and the current entry with the MACD initial entry was not much of a difference. Looking at the D1, entry was on the break below the previous day’s close after the pullback. Fundamentally, we have falling inflation in the Euro zone, which can be negative for the EUR.
1 Like
Update:
EUR/CAD PARTIAL LOSS
Evaluation: Don’t like how price starts to be rangebound and remains in the bull flag channel. MACD also show weakening bearish momentum. exit at partial loss, despite holding period remains valid.
1 Like
20/06/2023
Today as I close the previous EUR/CAD trade, I quickly take a look at the EUR/USD as to see if still remains bearish for correlation analysis. However I do find an interesting entry point as the dollar weakens.
EUR/USD LONG
Timeframe: 4H
Price: 1.0931
SL: 1.0891
TP: 1.10
Holding period: 48 Hours
Reason: Bull flag break in a bullish trend and at a previous support level. Dollar seems to be weakening as the US10Y struggles to continue its upward path and seems start to go sideways which can be negative for the USD.
1 Like
Update:
EUR/USD LONG PARTIAL LOSS
Reason: Yesterday the US housing permits came out better than expected which gave a boost to the USD. Also price is behaving sideways in the hourly timeframe as the trade expires as USD awaits Powell’s testimony. So closed out the trade at a partial loss and move on.
1 Like
21/06/2023
Today I took two trades which give out a good entry point and reason behind it.
AUD/JPY SHORT
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 95.82
SL: 96.50
TP: 94.80
Holding period: 24 Hours
Reason: Break and retest pattern to the downside as risk sentiment seems to be shifting to more of a risk off for the moment with falling stock market and sideway VIX readings. MACD almost gave out a sell signal and showing weakening bullish momentum at the support level.
GBP/CHF LONG
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 1.1426
SL: 1.1380
TP: 1.1496
Holding period: 24 Hours
Reason: A nice bullish engulfer at a strong support level that aligned with the 200 EMA. Fundamentally, speaking the BoE is still expected to raise interest rate to combat rising core inflation which can be beneficial for positive yield against the CHF.
1 Like
Update:
AUD/JPY LOSS
Evaluation: Setup was good but seems like powell’s testimony managed to bring a mix to market sentiment, but it is what it is and a loss is a loss.
GBP/CHF LOSS
Evaluation: Really got spiked out as volatility surges making significant whipsawed and stopping the trade out even after the surprise jumbo 50 bps rate hike from the BoE. So another loss, and seems time for a pause to learn from the past losses.
1 Like
Nice journal man. Good job!
I suppose it will be useful for your trading results in the first place. Keep it up!
27/06/2023
So after the weekend and no trades on Monday, today I took one trade at the New York session that seems worth taking according to my approach to the market.
NZD/JPY LONG
Timeframe: 1H
Price: 88.85
SL: 88.39
TP: 89.90
Holding period: 48 Hours
Reason: A break and retest, as well as a pullback to a support level after price makes a breakout, confirm the bullish triangle pattern. Market structure also remains bullish, with a bounce of a bullish trendline. VIX readings are also still showing risk - on sentiment as it is currently below 20. Targeting the 90 strong psychology level which will be a key handle in price.
Update:
NZD/JPY LOSS
Welp, a loss is a loss as it seems the sell off in the NZD/USD really spillovers to all the NZD pairs across the board. While the trade outcome cannot be predicted 100%, as long as risk is control I can take the loss as it is and move on to the next trade.
