This thread will be purely for me to note my longer term swing trades.
I am terrible at journalling my trades and thoughts, so hopefully this will help my discipline and increase my learning curve.
I’ll be starting with a £1000 trading balance using a spread betting platform and I will be trading higher time frame support and resistance in the direction of the current market structure. (Another ICT follower)
This is my first live account after only a small period of 6 weeks demo trading but I figure it will be more important in my development in terms of physcology to have real money on the line.
That’s all for now, I’ll post my main setup shortly. I initally intend to trade the Cable (GBP/USD) but as I am looking at swing trades, I will also monitor all the majors looking for long term swing trades.
I am looking to get short on the cable as I believe this is where price is heading. Last Sunday I was looking for price to re-trace to around the 1.6180 level to get short, however price moved down without me.
I’m therefore hoping that the low made last Wednesday is the start of the retracement back up to around 1.6150 - 1.6200 where I can then get short again to hopefully get in sync with where I believe price is heading.
Price is also in the sell zone on both the monthly & weekly traders trinity at these levels and price has also been making LH / LL since making a recent high on the 21/09/2012.
If price was to push up past 1.6200 then this would probably negate my analysis and mean I am wrong as it would then likely look to retest the 1.6300 level mentioned above.
I’m still trying to understand the COT reports more at the moment but when I compared the COT report for the British Pound earlier it does seem that the commercials increased their NET short positions around the time of the recent high at 1.6300 which has added to my bearish thought process.
I have pulled a Fib from the 21/09/2012 high (1.6310) to the low at 1.5974 on 10/10/2012 and I get key levels @ 1.6124 - 1.6167 (61.8% & 79%) with the sweet spot (70.5%) @ 1.6147.
Well, that’s my analysis and I’ll look to see if these levels are traded to in the early part of next week.
I’m looking at the same stuff TommyL. Hoping the weekly high is made sometime between now and tues LO and looking for it to get to that 1.62 fig OTE sweet spot. I’m also bearish.
Hey IyaJenkei, Let’s hope we can get our fill then. I’ve now placed my limit sell order at 1.6200 as this also lines up with a Key S&R level. My stop will be 1.6230 as if price penetrates this level then I think the MS changes to a bullish bias.
I’ll have to keep an eye on this though as for some reason I have a nagging doubt…?? :33:
I’m not able to watch the price action for the next few days, so I have cancelled my limit sell order and I’ll have to try and check in as and when I can. Daily swing high was taken out today so I’m not overly confident at the moment. Maybe I’ll get it back on but I think I will just watch for now until I am clearer in the direction of the price.
I’m not confident in my analysis for now what with the HH /HL of the past few days??
Hopefully my detailing here will help me get a feel for the way price reacts, that’s the plan anyway.
Ok, so price rejected yesterday at one of the pre-determined levels (1.6167) during the LO kill zone and traded down.
Today, maybe just before NYO we retraced almost 70% back up to this slide down and rejected again giving what I believe a power of three swing high, therefore I am going to re-resume my hunts for a short tomorrow.
I’ll be up early looking for a possible stop run / judas swing up to get short and hopefully ahead of 5 day swing high on the daily chart.
I’ll be looking at 1.6150 - 1.6180 levels in particular.
I’m still bearish on the Cable and I’m looking for price to retrace back to the original breakout around 1.6120 where there seems to be a nice potential resistance waiting to send it back down.
I’ll keep an eye on this over the next day or so, hopefully, I can finally get my trade in. :51:
Limit entry short triggered on Friday @ 1.6120, I used the 20 level instead of the sweet spot @ 1.6129 as it’s a more institutional level and I didn’t want to miss out if price didn’t reach the 1.6129 price.
Entry was based on a OTE from the high @ 1.6216 (5th Oct) to the low @ 1.5912 (23rd Oct) with market structure bearish on the daily chart. I’m hoping for the previous swing low @ 1.5912 to be taken out to keep the market structure bearish and in keeping with my downside objectives.
It’s been almost 3 weeks to get this entry in so I’m hoping it’s going to be worth the wait!
Unfortunately I was stopped out on this trade on Wednesday which was disappointing given the timeframe I’d waited to get in!
Anyway I took half of the position off at 50 pips and moved the stop to B/E so still made a small 2.5% gain so not all doom and gloom. I’ll reassess the next level tomorrow as it appears the MS has turned Bullish on the daily.
I also need to re-look at all videos and learn some other concepts that may help in my trading as currently I am mainly focusing on the OTE and MS only.
This week I am unsure on the Cable as to the MS so I’ll be watching this over the next few days to try and gauge which way we are heading.
I may look for shorts on retracements between the 1.6080 - 1.6120 price levels based on Fibonacci levels.
On the Fiber, I am feeling quite bearish now after the daily MS was broken to the downside on Friday. Therefore using the fibonacci retracement from the high on 31/10/12 to what I’m hoping to be the next swing low at 1.2820 with the 61.8% - 79% levels coming in between 1.2942 - 1.2977. At these levels I may look to take a short.
Couple the above in with a bullish view on the USDX, I’ll be looking for this to retrace in to the 80.00 level for another bounce up which will also help my bearish view on the Euro.
I’ve not set any limit orders in the MT4 yet as I would rather see how Monday / Tuesday fair at the minute.
Thanks Jonnycab, I’m still in there learning every day and reading the posts. Its just this is a way for me to document what I’m feeling and what I’m looking at. At home I will mark the charts on Sunday and then re-do them the following Sunday and lose all my previous thoughts and analysis. (probably not a bad thing ha ha)
This way I have a journal from week to week and one I can’t edit to make me feel better and look good as that would be fooling myself.
Hopefully it’ll improve my learning.
Let’s see where it goes. I see you’ve been doing well so long may that continue.
Ive been doing the same, but writing it down in a notebook (and more recently typing it up in a document - then posting some of it in the PTC thread).
Definitely very useful for going back to review the notes based on the current week after its actually happened!
I dunno about well, but definitely getting a bit of consistancy! I think this is probably the key point for me overall. Once you have that down, the pips will sort themselves out!
Entry at 1.3018 (as I was worried in case it fell short of the 1.3020 level) based on the LTH & LTL Fib (17-10-12 - 13-11-12) and on the premise that the 79% retracement level would clear the stops resting at 1.3020.
Took half the position off @ 1.2997 for +3% and was leaving the remainder to run.
A little disappointed I didn’t take another 1/4 off at 1.2980 as I saw a possible bounce coming and that would have locked in another 6% but as I am looking to swing trade I was initially looking at 1.2940 as the initial place to take the 1/4 off and leave the rest to do what the market deemed it would do.
On a plus note, I did wait for this setup from the 18-11-12 as posted above which is proving the point to wait for the setup to form and “submit” to the time and price theory so excellently advised by my mentor Michael J Huddleston.
I was tempted when price traded near to the 1.3020 level on both Tuesday & Thursday to jump in and chase the action thinking I had missed the move, but decided to stay with the plan!
All in all I’m around 18% up from the start of this journal, granted a few with scalps at a little higher risk than I have been advised. The biggest problem is pyschological and that is something Michael can’t teach. I’m also only using OTE / Fibs and Market Structure and the results are great (so far) see if I can hold on to them. Once I get more confident and more time, I’ll learn some of the other methods but for me these were the ones that fit with me and I’m going to try and use them to the full advantage.
Back to the current trade, I am still in this and hoping that we are forming a swing high so we can move down for some nice profits, however as I believe MS has now turned bullish on the 4HR and D1 has a bullish MF, I am looking to the next swing low also for a buy but it’s far too ealry for that. I need to clear the charts on Sunday and re-plot my levels and see what happens next week.
Anyway that’s my journal entry for this week. Updates as and when I have them. It does help in helping keep a focus.
I’m going to hold on to the current trade and hold for lower prices as despite the MS being bullish on the 4HR it remains bearish on the D1.
I’m hoping to see price move down to around the 1.2880 level, where if it breaks below we can then run further and challenge the stops resting at 1.2735 before maybe bouncing back up into the bullish 4HR structure as this level coincides with the 79% retracement from the high @ 1.3026 to the low @ 1.2661 and also the 161.8 extension level (1.2708) of the most recent swing 1.2879 - 1.3026.
Also just looking at the trinities for some added confluence and I see the following.
Daily trinity - price is in the sell zone on the 4 hr chart.
Weekly trinity - price is in the sell zone on the 4 hr chart.
Monthly trinity - price is in the sell zone on the daily chart.
Whether we have another push up before the move down I’m not too sure but hopefully it won’t breach last weeks high where my stop rests. I may adjust this as I have already taken 3% from this trade so may give it some more breathing room.
Viewing the USDX, It looks like there will be a bounce around 79.65 based on the bulllish MS on the daily chart and price is also in the daily and weekly buy zone on the trinities at this level.
This coincides for me (a move down in the dollar early in the week with a bullish end) with my EUR/USD analysis next week for a move up early in the week before continiung down later in the week.