Guys, I was hoping for a quicker reversal. This is one of those times where the JPY got stubbornly strong and didn’t revert. Based on my experience with Japan and the yen, I think the outlook on a long-term basis is for Nikkei and yen weakness. However, there is far too much volatility in currencies to be worried about that when your average trades are opened and closed within a few hours to 5 days… I believe that people rely on long-term issues and forecasts far too much as a result.
I think it is always smart to consider 2 things when opening trades: (1) What is the short-term prognosis of this pair / these pairs? (2) What is the long-term prognosis of this pair / these pairs? If you feel that both the long-term and short-term prognosis is similar, you are more likely backing that currency pair into a corner and may have a win-win situation on your hands. It might just be a matter of time as to when you can and / or will profit.
The biggest mistake that I believe one can make is ‘trying to force trades’ rather than taking advantage of an active market and seizing such opportunities to open new trades.
In regards to the recent rise of the yen vs. some of the major currencies, I think I am guilty of jumping on it rather than proceeding more cautiously… Time will tell. Retraction has begun and we are early in the trading week.