My Thoughts on the Aussie

From what I can see we are in a steady uptrend for the Aussie on the Daily from back in late October where it bottomed.

My thoughts at the moment are that I would be looking to buy at around the 0.6300 level aiming for 0.6800 and possibly 0.7200 if it breaks 0.6900.

Any other thoughs??


Do you mean downtrend in the Aussie? and is that against the US Dollar?

It does look like it’s making a base, with support between .6000 and .6250. If we see some recovery in global economy, I’ll probably buy around there and target .7000.

on the positive side
while slowing dramatically, Oz economy still in positive growth territory
employment numbers last week better than expected
AUD high positive correlation to gold should benefit.
Oz banks not exposed to the horrors US and Euro bank are
Baltic Dry recently climbing from its depths of despair
China, a net importer of Aussie goods, still positive growth
still a relatively high central bank rate

on the down side
commodities indices (Reuters Jeffries and DJC) continue to fall
AUD positive correlation with oil is not helpful- oil now at $38/bbl
Oz exports to drop on weak Japan,
AUD always hurt by risk aversion

net, I"m more bullish AUD than many others.

Sorry need to clear that up. The current daily is down as you say from 7250 early jan. And yes against the USD.

I am looking at the major trend from Oct 27th. What I am thinking is that since it bottomed at just over 6000 in oct there is a nice channel formed. Had a good bounce off 6000, 6100 and 6250 and tops at 7000, 7150 and 7250.


In a couple of days it is expected a trading range between 0.6952 and 0.7180. However, the price action from 0.6952 is more likely consolidation of the downtrend from 0.7322, a bigger fall is possible after consolidation, and a break below 0.6952 will mean deeper decline to 0.6800.
Short-term resistance is at 0.7129 followed by 0.7180, and the key resistance is now at 0.7238. Above this it will mean that the price action from 0.7322 is consolidation of the medium term uptrend from 0.6284, and bigger rally could be seen to 0.7500 or even higher.