Hello, my name is Stanislav, and I’ve been trading actively since early 2020. Following my progress in the FX markets and commodities, I’ve realized that I’ve gone through quite a lot of strategies, indicators, PA, fundamentals and whatnot.
I’ve decided to start a trading journal, as I’m currently transitioning to full-time trading and would like to have a strong analysis of my trades to see if anything can be improved in addition to the different perspective I’ll have when I do a re-cap of the week and trading history.
Also, I’ll write down my weekly analysis mainly on XAU/USD here and what I expect for the week to see how far from the truth I’ll be once the week ends.
Loved the idea. Just, can I request you to check the strategy that I posted about today and, if you liked it, try that too? I am also testing that, but if you can join too, we can sooner find out if that is useful or not.
Hi there. In my opinion, all trends have a fundamental reason, so if you are able to pinpoint the reason(s) behind a trend, you will have a much broader view of the whole picture and whether there is a correction or a reversal. Based on the photo you’ve posted, it should work as long as you do not marry to a trade by adding more positions to a losing one, you have a solid risk-reward ratio, bonus points if the reversion is towards the long-term trend.
Currently, the seasonality oattern of XAU/USD is bullish.
4H chart - Finally after the break downwards on the 15th of May, we are have bullish momentum visible, breaking a falling wedge structure.
Daily chart - The $1900 zone appears to hold well, with a consolidation of ~20 days before we saw the bulls reclaiming that zone.
1H chart - An imminent correction appears to be on the horizon, as after soft print on the CPI we are consollidating for two days, I expect XAU/USD to keep consollidating a bit and drop towards the ~1935 zone before resuming the uptrend to 1976.
Currency outlook - In my opinion, since it is summer, the USD will go lower in spite of all headlines signalling that it is at it’s weaker state since February 2023 and we will print a new high in GOLD this week. Will note down an ongoing analysis on a lower timeframe once an opportunity presents itself next week.
yes Ruined, you analyze the gold correctly. There is a key zone of a pullback developing now. The technical coincidences are here: D1 EMA20 @1936 (nicely stretched up from MA20) as you sure know price likes to touch EMA20 once again, then > H4 EMA50 & EMA200 cross @1940, MACD looks perfect, RSI 65 a bit high but falling expect probably touching/reverse at 50, July 12 daily high @1940 and looking at lower…
H1 shows a perfect scenario! The EMA200 zone is exactly where it should be. A nice coincidence (math also) the zone is @1940 RSI MACD is ok, so this could be be even a small trade countertrend with a target price 1940. On the 15 minute chart you will see the nice small pullback in the 200EMA zone, continuing (probably) the short toward 1940. I draw a fib retrace up from Jul 14 14:15GMT to 15:00 this was “the” significant distance, but it has reached it again almost at 18:15GMT GMT and you’ll see the 1,618 level is right there, at 1944 again a good coincidence! This a half % from this point.
The resuming uptrend - in my view - can continue to the round $2000
Have a good trade, I am sorry not to give you any idea about how to keep a good journal. It should be somehow a personalized “little friend”, formed on own needs and guess many don’t have, just like me.
(200EMA zone is the stripe between 200high and 200low, you can create it or find it in platforms’ scripts)