My Trading Log

In the process of trying to trade as efficiently as possible and maximize reward while minimizing risk, I’ve been looking at the money management part.

Most traders, at least retail traders such as I, will open a position, set a TP and a SL and that’s basically it.

For ease of understanding, let’s assume that all positions are the same size and that all SL are the same size.

The standard method results in, let’s say, a reward that’s two times the risk. That is, risk 1$ and gain 2$. Seems nice huh!

But is there any way that we could improve the reward [I]without[/I] increasing the risk?
Yes there is actually. It’s called pyramiding and has nothing to do with MLM scams or doubling down or any other of those crazy stupid things.
Pyramiding, if done properly, can increase your profits substantially without increasing the risk at all. To work really well you do have to manage to catch and ride a trend for some time.

Let’s have a look at the principle:

What we do to start with is nothing strange. First, we place a trade like any other, risking x% of the account. Nothing new here.
What happens next is the clever part: if, and only if, our trade goes into profit by at least the same amount that equals our risk, we can enter a new position in the same direction, risking again x%.
If the trade would turn on us now and go to hit our SL, we will only lose x% of our account, not 2x%. Why, because we move the SL on the first trade to BE when we enter trade number two.
That way, as long as the trend continues we can add to our trade size every time the previous trade has reached break even.

A quick comparison of the text book case:

  1. 1 Risk 0 Reward locked in (first trade is placed)
  2. 1 Risk 0 Reward locked in (second trade placed, first trade SL -> to BE)
  3. 1 Risk 1 Reward locked in (third trade placed)
  4. 1 Risk 3 Reward locked in (fourth trade placed)
  5. 1 Risk 6 Reward locked in (fifth trade placed)
  6. 1 Risk 10 Reward locked in (sixth trade placed)
    7 SL hit: result is a return of 9 times the risk (10 Reward - 1 Risk)

Remember that the ordinary trade would have returned two times the risk (2 Reward - 0 Risk)

Most of you will immediately see the drawback of this - we need to get to step 3 before a hit SL results in a no loss trade, and we need to get to at least step 5 before things get really interesting. But if we can ride a long trend it’s plain to see that pyramiding is a very efficient way of increasing profits without increasing risk.

If we expect a trade to be able to give no more than 3 times the risk in return, pyramiding is not a good choice, but if or when we enter those rare, but wonderful positions that we expect to be able to ride for a good while, this can certainly be worth doing.

edit: here’s a good read at investopedia: Pyramid Your Way To Profits

Makes interesting reading but can you see yourself doing this on forex? I find it hard enough day trading let alone trying to 2nd guess long term forex potential. I’m sure there are traders out there who do it though.
I discussed something similar on this thread but not quite the same as pyramiding, just “averaging up” - thread
I could see how this could apply to stocks or the FTSE very well. Most forex trades are probably 1:2, 1:3 before price might bounce back so you’re gonna get a lot of stop outs.

No, the really hard part is getting into one of those trades. You’d almost have to have a fundamentals based view and a lot of patience.

The other possibility would be to trade using maybe 1H or 4H charts (or even lower but that’s not my cup of tea), that way you could probably get in on trends that last long enough to make it possible to keep moving the SL to BE and enter another lot.

Unfortunately neither of those are realistic for me right now, but I’ll keep pyramiding in the back of my head, ready to use it when the right time comes.

There’s a section in Millionaire Traders where this guy talks about long term trading and he was hundreds of thousands in the red waiting for it to turn positive like the fundamentals told him - don’t think I could stomach that type of trading :slight_smile:

I’ve got an update on currensee.com for you…

I opened up a $50 account at IBFX and signed up for curensee’s beta test. It turns out that they do NOT have access to your account like we thought.

They give you an EA to put on your charts that sends your trading information to their servers. So you just place your trades in MT4 like normal, but all your trading activity shows up on curensee. They never have the password to your account.

The $50 hasn’t posted to the new account yet, so I haven’t actually done any trading with it, but it looks like a really good service!

Well that’s really nice to hear. I had the same concerns as you. I guess then that their service only works while you have MT4 running. That’s a drawback but not a biggie.

I’ll have to get around to opening an account with a MT4 broker then. :slight_smile:

In spite of vacation part of the month along with direction less summer markets I managed to increase my account by 3.46%.

I’m quite happy with that. Let’s see if we can stay in the green during September as well.

Well dude, thanks for taking the time to create this thread, its very interesting (ive just read all 27 pages!!). Im kinda new to Forex but ive read a few books, watched a few DVDs, completely the school of pipsology and played with Metatrader til im blue in the face… (dummy and live accounts).

Needless to say i wiped the live account but meh… thats what i expected to start lol

I have my own strategy falling into place, but your mention of volume and also SPARC has given me some interesting ideas too. so many thanks for that.

Can i ask a question… Im aware of the money mangement techniques and appreciate the importance of using it always. I know your a fan of day trading now (so am i) but how on earth do you limit loses to 1%? I mean i know HOW to physically do it, but the price fluctuates soo much.

Broadly speaking, if i have an account with �500 GBP then 1% risk is �5, and the spread costs more than that? Even if you dont include the spread that only around 5 pips and in day trading the price fluctuates soo much a few pips is easily broken

I can understand if you catch a trend on an intraday day trend hopefully it wont fall backwards, but prices tend to fluctuate wildily during the day (even more weekly/monthly etc).

Are you still using 500:1 leverage? (im using 100:1)

Let me say i dont disagree with you at all… I would love to only have to risk 1% of my capital… im just not sure how.

Using my technique (im not quite ready to share that yet cos its not finalised) im seeing that i could potentially make a decent profit, but im having to risk a great deal more than 1 percent (more like 20% or more currently only doing this in demo account)

Im concluding as i type that my technique is just too risky to be used live, but i really cant see a way i could get risk down as low as 1%

Keep up the good work :slight_smile:

Sounds like you’ve got a crappy broker, Bob. Are you allowed to trade fractional lots? Can you trade .01 lots or are you just limited to whole integers(1 lot, 2 lots, etc)?

You need fractional lots to trade 1% of your account with such a small balance. If your broker won’t allow you to do it I’d switch to Oanda.

Cheers Phil, My brokers not bad… im with Alpari UK. At the moment i am trading full lot sizes, although they do allow micro lot sizes.

My reason for not using micro lot sizes is that by the time you take the spread off it would be very hard to make a profit in micro. Unless of course the spread is per full lot? And 0.1 mocro lot you only pay 0.1 of the spread?

That would make sense… I dont knw how it works though cos ive only traded lot sizes of 1 (and 8 in demo only obviously)

Phill . just found in another post “how do you trade support and resistance” your PDF document. Seems to answer some of my questions. Apologies i missed this earlier… ive done a LOT of reading lately lol will have a look at that next

Cheers

Hi,

I’m glad this thread is of use to anyone but myself!

Phil has already kind of answered, but no harm in repeating.

Nowadays I trade daily and weekly candles only. This of course requires large stops of sometimes more than a hundred pips. For a weekly trade the stop can be even more.

Like Phil says, the only way to still just risk, in my case, 2.5% of my account is to reduce the lot size. Since I use Oanda this is no problem. I can trade any lot size I need to get the % right.

The spread cost is always x pips, and since each of my pips will be worth very little, the spread cost will also be very small. It stays in proportion so the spread isn’t a problem when trading small lots sizes like I do.

I believe it’s impossible to be successful long term risking more than 3% per trade, so I really think you need to trade smaller lot sizes. As far as I know this should be possible with Alpari.

Oanda’s max leverage is 50:1 and that’s what I’m using. But the fact of the matter is that the leverage doesn’t really matter that much. What matters is making sure that your risk per trade is kept at or below 3%

A quick example:

If 2.5% of the account corresponds to, let’s say, 10$ then that’s what we’re willing to risk on this trade, not a cent more.
Then, the SL has to be 100 pips including the spread. That means that we need to find a lot size that makes it so that every pip is worth 0.1$ (10$ / 100 pips)
Oanda makes it easy to figure this out, but here’s a link to a clever little tool that Interbank FX has: Pip Calculator, Forex Pip Calculator - Forex Trading Tools Here you can easily calculate how big your lot size needs to be in order to get that 0.1$ per pip.

That’s basically how I go about keeping my risk at 2.5% no matter what size my SL is. Let me know if anything is unclear.

I’m looking to short this pair.

Both daily and weekly price action suggests this pair may be going south.

I’m currently pondering entry technique. Retrace entry - aggressive, or enter at the break of last weeks candle? Hmm. Will think about that for a bit.

I think I’m right in saying Oanda is currently offering a 5 pips spread? FXCM on a micro account is offering 1.8 spread typically, with a $25 opening balance. With anything less than a $10k account, I would be happier with a micro with this spread. You can always place multiple lots. :slight_smile:

Actually I checked, on CADJPY both FXCM and Oanda have a typical spread of 5 pips. FXCM claim that their spread goes as low as 1.3, but I’m not sure anyone ever sees that spread. Their typical spread is said to be 5.

During the London and New York sessions I actually don’t think that many can challenge Oanda’s spread. Maybe match them, but beat them?

Anyway, one pip here or there doesn’t make all the difference when trading long time frames.

As it happened I set a traditional stop order a few pips below last weeks low.

It worked nicely and during the day I was at the most up around +105 pips. I moved my SL to BE and since then I’ve had the pleasure of watching as price retraces closer and closer to said BE point.

I’ve come to know myself better and one thing I’ve learned is that I will prefer to be stopped out at BE rather than risk seeing a winner turn into a loser.

As I write this price is stalling it’s climb about 20 pips below BE, so we’ll see what happens.

I’m also looking to open an Interbank FX account to be able to check out the Currensee thing. If I have the energy maybe I’ll get around to doing that tonight.

o99016mh

Well my FXCM standard account typically offers a spread of 3 pips on GU and one of my sons has a micro which offers 1.8 pips consistantly. :slight_smile:

There’s a bit of a difference between CADJPY and GU huh :slight_smile:

Currently Oanda spread is 2.1 pips on GU and during London and earlier NY it’s 1.2 I think.

Another day another trade. No worries :slight_smile:

A high quality bearish reversal around 85.00 on CADJPY would be quite playable now.