No major PPZ, that’s true. On the 4H chart one might draw a line at 1.6440 and consider price to have bounced off of that line today.
We’re not at a swing high either, rather we’re in the middle of a range 1.615-1.67 where price has been stuck since early June.
If the daily closes with the same nice look it has now I might trade it from the 4H chart allowing for a tighter stop if I were to trade it.
As we both see it’s not one of those A+ setups that we want. It may very well, probably even, work out and then it’s important to not beat yourself up if you chose to sit on hands. Instead one should congratulate oneself to having followed the plan. You know - better to be out wishing you were in than…
Right now EURUSD is looking more interesting as it’s forming a two bar bearish formation in what is definitely a potential swing high. Have to wait for daily close though.
I guess I’d probably scrap the cable trade due to the middle of range thing, but don’t listen too much to me. I’ve been known to be a good contrarian indicator at times
I just had to show this, scroll to the bottom of the page and check out his account curve. That’s how much trust we should put in the so called gurus and experts.
At least this guy isn’t trying to hide it, he’s definitely honest but probably wishing he had waited a while before starting to publish his recommendations equity curve huh
Yeah, EURUSD is going to find trouble at 1.45 and 1.4450 and 1.44 but I’m still holding to see what happens. SL has locked in profit at 1.4682 so whatever happens it’s a winner.
GBPJPY did indeed complete a nice pin bar turn at the 141 level yesterday and today has shown some follow through. 144 seems to be causing trouble right now. If it can break above, 146.5 might be the next resistance zone.
Fundamentals is something I completely ignore. It would require far to much time to have any acceptable grasp on it and it’s really all priced in and free for us to see on the chart.
I haven’t been following along that closely with the markets last few days. I’m spending all my energy at another forex project. If I had seen that pin bar I would have traded it and I would probably be moving my SL to BE just about now.
In an effort to remove some of the anonymity that I, like almost everyone else, is hiding behind on these forums, I’ve decided to follow in Tymen’s footsteps and make my real name known.
I’ve edited my signature to show my name, but for some reason I can’t see my signature in any of my posts. I’ve used both IE8 and Firefox and I can’t see the signature. Oh well, hopefully it’s just on my end.
Tymen for a while (a long while) also had his real portrait as avatar but I’m not ready to go that far yet, besides I really like my MacGyver avatar
This weekend I have two things on my list as far as forex goes.
I haven’t been paying much attention to the charts for a while as my thoughts have been more or less consumed with my forex project. It seems more and more promising, so much so that I have to start scrolling through charts to backtest it. I need to do that for several reasons but one of them is to see if my optimism has a real foundation or not.
I really have to get to scrolling charts!
I did actually manage to squeeze some pips from the NFP release today. That brings this month to a +1.9% account increase. Not bad considering I haven’t traded much at all.
It’s based on 0.1-0.2% risk as I’ve done some test driving of the project.
If the backtesting supports the feasibility of what I’m working on I’ll post all about it. If not I may spare myself the embarrassment
I’m also on the edge of my seat waiting for “Project MacGyger.” Maybe he’s built an entire trading system out of half a Bollinger Band, an old trendline, and a stopwatch??
It’s not my intention though, it’s just that it takes a long time to backtest with an excel spreadsheet and 17 rows to fill in for every trade. Oh, and a wife wanting attention…
I’ve started working on it and so far so good, but it’s going to take maybe two weeks to finish it, especially as I’ll be away the whole of the week after next on business and I have to spend a lot of time reading literature in the evenings until then. Sigh!
What I’m doing is really so simple it’s laughable, but I haven’t seen any mention of it anywhere I’ve been. Maybe that’s because it doesn’t work, or maybe it’s because I’m a genius. We’ll see.
Project name: Line in the Sand.
Gives kind of a hint huh.
I’m also on the edge of my seat waiting for “Project MacGyger.” Maybe he’s built an entire trading system out of half a Bollinger Band, an old trendline, and a stopwatch??
LOL That’s the funniest thing I’ve ever read on this forum:p
I’ve been drooling over the weekly AUDUSD all weekend (Obsessssss much? as Ace Ventura would say). For three consecutive weeks this pair has tried to move higher and failed. Last two weeks are nice dojis in a swing high location.
So, if up isn’t where we’re going, might it be down?
I do have a PPZ in the way at 0.85, but the setup is so good I’m willing to play this anyway, hoping/expecting a break.
After looking through the charts it’s clear that other USD pairs also seem to be about to roll over.
EURUSD and GBPUSD both look very nice.
EURUSD is essentially forming an evening star at a swing high. Bit of a lower wick on the bearish candle, but looking at the daily chart shows us that NFP volatility accounts for it. Still it’s on the chart, but all in all the setup is good enough for me to trade.
GBPUSD spent last week retesting and failing at the 1.61-1.615 zone. After a break of 1.58 there’s no major support until 1.50 which makes the potential target very attractive. Clearly I’ve missed part of the move but there’s enough potential left to be a good trade.
I’ve decided to risk 2% on the AUDUSD, 1% on EURUSD and 0.5% on GBPUSD. That’s essentially a 3.5% bet on USD strength. A bit more than my standard 2.5% but still within acceptable boundaries, especially given that the risk is spread across three pairs.
These are the pending orders I’m placing into Oanda:
AUDUSD short @ 0.8565 EDIT: SL 0.8890
EURUSD short @ 1.4465 SL 1.4715
GBPUSD short @1.5760 SL 1.6130
Targets are open for now. Just to be clear again: I’m not a pro, these are not recommendations. This is just me sharing the best trades I’ve been able to find this weekend, trade them at your own risk (and reward :D).
AUD/USD bounced directly off the price you’re using as a stoploss back in July '07. I don’t have the patience for trading weekly charts, but if I was going to trade this I would put my stop higher, just in case this turns into an S+R area. I’d want my stop above the S+R, not right on it.
But then again I’ve never traded weekly charts, so I might have no clue what I’m talking about.
If price does activate my order it will then have to turn up and make a new yearly high in order to take me out. Still, you’re right, maybe 0.8890 would be a better SL level.
