My Trading Log

[o990l6mh]

It’s a sound plan - I see the minor PPZ that you’re hoping will hold. The descending trendline on the daily is at just above 0.73 so if price breaks your PPZ it may well head up to there. If I was a touch trader that would be an excellent place to short it - round number, trendline and a PPZ there too. Oooh I think I might have my entry point for the long term NZDUSD short now what will price do?

Yes, that’s not a bad idea actually - if you had the patience to wait for a retrace… I’ll try to learn something from this - better to let a trade or two get away from you by waiting for a retrace that doesn’t come, than to jump in at the first chance shouting “Geronimo!”

[o990l6mh]

lmao I like the image that conjures! Of course, price doesn’t always retrace so it really is six-of-one half-a-dozen-of-the-other. Assuming you stick to your plan and scale out at the point you identified, you could scale back in at the touch - I guess the conflict there is are you sticking to the plan you had originally (no, but does that necessarily matter?) - and also technically you are adding to a losing position (but then, you’ve already lightened the position and getting in at 7300 means you can set a pretty tight stop so again, can we legitimately break the rules here?).

Yes, adding to a losing position is a major no-no in my book. I had defined the risk I was willing to place on the trade though, so I could reenter with the 4%-potential scale out loss%. As you say, with a tighter stop this could still result in a worthwhile position size.

If the market gods are on my side, which they seldom are :p, there won’t be any scaling out.

[o990l6mh]

For the first post of the new decade, I thought I’d post a chart since I haven’t done that for some time.

I’ll let you figure out for yourselves what I’m trying to say:

In case you’re wondering what SGD is, it’s Singapore Dollars.

So, do we think that the probability:

1. is highest that SGD will appreciate?
2. is highest that USD will appreciate?

[R_Carter]

My monies on a retrace to 1.4377… after that too long a TF for me, I trade the daily.

On your favourite hobby NZD/USD my daily is showing early indications of topping out. But PA has just broken the 100 ma (LWMA) dont think it will hold though.

[o990l6mh]

@MattW2009

I think it’s too early to call. Price has clearly been in decline for quite some time so there is no direct reason to believe it wont continue, except that it’s possible over extended and showing some sideways movement. The true tell of future direction will be if point 2 or 3 are taken out (for those who don’t know the 1-2-3 trading method, point 2 is the swing low, point 3 is the swing high). Taking out point 2 shows a bearish continuation, taking out point 3 WITHOUT making a lower low will show trend reversal to a bullish rally.

I quite agree with both of you, it’s to early to call a trend change to up. But it may be just the right time to see if we can’t get a retrace and after moving to BE, who knows - we might actually break point nr 3. We already have a potential higher low at a very valid location.

Somewhere around 1.43-1.45 is a likely retrace to reach imo. I’ll move to BE around there and either get stopped out or hit a runner.

Here’s a weekly chart to clarify what the big deal is with the 1.38 line:

[o990l6mh]

I tried digging around for some fundamental viewpoints but couldn’t find much (admittedly I only looked for 5 mins on Google). So instead here is my take on the fundies…

Singapore is an emerging market and although not part of the BRIC it is the fifth wealthiest country in the world in terms of GDP, focussing on foreign investment to drive industrialisation. With China destined to become one of the major powerhouses of the coming few decades along with other Asian countries the future for the fourth largest financial centre in the world is bright.

So on that basis the Singapore Dollar should continue to show strength as medium/high risk investors return to the emerging markets seeking high returns. With that in mind what will predominately drive the USD/SGD exchange rate will be the strength of the US economy.

The US has taken a bit of a battering lately but the $-index has turned up hinting at a bottom in the decline. This should herald a steady return to pre-collapse levels and therefore indicates coming strength for the US Dollar. However emerging markets are gaining steam whereas the US is considered old hat with low-risk low-return investment opportunities so on that basis over the longer term we should see the Singapore dollar gaining strength over the dollar.

Disclaimer: I don’t do fundamentals. I could be very, very wrong.

I agree with that view and the same disclaimer goes for me. I’m trying to ignore that and just look at what the charts are telling me.

Oanda does pay/charge the interest rate difference, so it does cost to go long USD at the present (except against the JPY…).

Haven’t really planned the entry yet, I might enter part on the break and part on a retrace. 1.4040 seems to be a minor PPZ, so I might plan my strategy from there. We’ll see.

[steveshelby2550]

Price appears to be moving up according to the monthly and weekly charts, IMO.

[R_Carter]

I see on the daily TF chart NZD/USD could finally be topping out and resuming the short trend. I’ll see what the Asian makes of it tonight and perhaps place the short.

[o990l6mh]

Someone else’s take on LITS:

Line in the Sand @ Forex Factory

There really is nothing new in the markets

How annoying that the thread even is called Line in the sand! I promise I had never seen it before. I never thought I was the first to think of the concept though, so it’s no surprise. It’s more of a surprise that there’s not more about it on forums imo.

The thing that they lacked in that thread was where to put the line, a J16 A+ daily setup helps a lot in that respect. In fact I’m beating myself slightly for not being home today to trade GBPUSD LITS style (may have to figure out another name ;)).

I’ve made some calculations as to which pairs are best suited for it and (with Oanda’s spreads), 3 pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY stand out, EURGBP and AUDUSD are a bit behind but also qualify imo. The other pairs have a too low ATR/spread ratio to be well suited.

Obviously, the NZDUSD trade was a loser. Bummer. I’ve learned to always wait for a price action formation, so that was money well spent after all. Good lesson and not too many tears to learn it.

[o990l6mh]

I see on the daily TF chart NZD/USD could finally be topping out and resuming the short trend. I’ll see what the Asian makes of it tonight and perhaps place the short.

Yep, I’m also ready to get back on the horse after being thrown off. We will see if there’s not a trade to be shaken out of it yet.

[o990l6mh]

My first trade of 2010 and I’m taking a 2-day pin on AUD/JPY. I’ll probably put up some more detail on my own thread tomorrow but I’m seeing a double top of sorts with price liable to head back into its historical range (of which 8500 is the top). As such this is unlikely to be a new trend but I should be able to squeeze some pips…

Seems to be the current theme: USD and JPY strengthening and everything else weakening.

That’s a nice setup you identified, I hadn’t looked through the charts tonight.

[R_Carter]

My first trade of 2010 and I’m taking a 2-day pin on AUD/JPY. I’ll probably put up some more detail on my own thread tomorrow but I’m seeing a double top of sorts with price liable to head back into its historical range (of which 8500 is the top). As such this is unlikely to be a new trend but I should be able to squeeze some pips…

Yes the JPY crosses have been my favourite day candle trades this week (USD/JPY & GBP/JPY) took the break of the CHF/JPY today and will likely stay in until the center boll on the daily (heres hoping). Good luck with yours by the way.

[R_Carter]

Two daily equadistant jodi’s on NZD/USD… now theres something you dont see every day. Hmm… now is that good or bad?

[o990l6mh]

Two daily equadistant jodi’s on NZD/USD… now theres something you dont see every day. Hmm… now is that good or bad?

Good question. USDX may be forming a bull flag as well. We may be at the turn now. Or not, that’s the charm of probabilities

AUDUSD is breaking back below the falling trendline as I’m writing. I’m watching to see if IBFX 4H closes as a pinbar, it looks that way now. If it does I’m going to take a shot at it with the wild intent of trying to ride it all the way down to 0.89

[R_Carter]

Well the AUD/JPY is scrapped as price headed higher invalidating the setup…

R Carter - would love to hear your response on the Leonardo’s Test thread

Yes Gold pushed it up and so followed the Kiwi. :mad:

Is that the title of the thread… dont know it.

[R_Carter]

Yes, here ya go! http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/31587-leonardos-trading-test.html

Thanks for that. Wasn’t sure if it was the guys name and the thread title. I’ll go take a look and PM dont want to distract from the main mans thread.

EDIT: Didnt realise it was your thread… replied there… marks out of ten.

[system]

USDX may be forming a bull flag as well. [B]We may be at the turn now.[/B] Or not, that’s the charm of probabilities

They gonna throw it at FOREX: News prints. It started, already.

AUDUSD is breaking back below the falling trendline as I’m writing. If it does I’m going to take a shot at it with the wild intent of trying to ride it all the way down to 0.89

Off to the races, are we?

[o990l6mh]

They gonna throw it at FOREX: News prints. It started, already.

Off to the races, are we?

No, no trade there and no gambling either, horses or forex :). I guess price must have overheard me. That potential pin disappeared like a mirage in the desert. I have a skill that way…

Anyway, I’m glad it did. I have vouched to trade dailies only and I’m unhappy with myself for coming close to cheating on that.

I take it that you’re waiting for the right time to start buying USD? I seem to recall you wrote something like that in another thread.

[system]

No, no trade there and no gambling either, horses or forex :). I guess price must have overheard me. That potential pin disappeared like a mirage in the desert. I have a skill that way…

It might appear again.

Anyway, I’m glad it did. I have vouched to trade dailies only and I’m unhappy with myself for coming close to cheating on that.

Well, you stuck to it. Didn’t break your rules and no damage done.

I take it that you’re waiting for the right time to start buying USD? I seem to recall you wrote something like that in another thread.

I figured following the smartest money isn’t a bad idea for Q1. And they are betting on a USD rally short-term.
I am waiting for price to hit key levels across a number of pairs as a trigger for engagement.

[o990l6mh]

I intend to make a post or two during the weekend as I’ve finally gotten around to formulating a few hard rules and make a trading plan out of them.

Everything will be done in a way that is time efficient and simplistic. I’ve removed as many choices as possible, to decrease the human (me :rolleyes:) factor.

I dare say that this, or something similar, is something that anyone like me, with a full time job during London hours, should/could use to reduce stress.

A small spoiler: I [B]will not[/B] trade on anything else than daily and weekly charts.

More later.