A very shrewd move indeed. 
Iāve had a bunch of stuff to do this weekend so Iām not quite done with my trading plan. Iāll post it when itās done enoughā¦
Well, bear with me, itās coming. Itās basically finished, nothing fancy at all - just some basic rules to keep me in check.
If time allows Iāll post it tomorrow.
Meanwhile and completely off topic, I offer this link to a band my wifes brother hinted on. First time heās suggested something that you can actually listen to willingly :D:
YouTube - ApocalypticaVideosās Channel
Finnish metal band that plays cello! (sic!) and they do it well. Cool.
Nothing else matters in a way you havenāt heard before:
YouTube - Apocalyptica-Nothing else matters Official Music Video
Sorry about the off topic. Next few posts will be more on target.
Aināt that the truth! 
I decided to place a pending order on CADJPY, short @ 88.80 with a SL @ 90.70. Target? At least 86.20 but why not 80.50 if all goes well.
Canāt possibly turn out worse than the NZDUSD short did huh :rolleyes:
Letās see if I can bring this years account back into black figures.
Just thought Iād throw up the charts from last night showing why I placed a pending order on CADJPY.
The order triggered and the trade behaved as expected.
Didnāt have the energy to use photobucket so the resolution isnāt that great. Left chart is the weekly, showing price to be right at the 38.2 retracement from the major drop 08/09.
Right chart is how the daily chart looked, notice how price formed a reversal setup right at resistance where it had turned a few weeks earlier.
This, imho, qualifies as an A+ setup.
Just moved the stop to BE with the reasoning that if price gets up to my entry point again, then Iād be thinking that thereās a big risk the trade will fail altogether. In other words, if it gets back to my entry, I no longer want to hold my position. No profit taking yet, still targeting at least 86.20.
May post more later
Sure do! Chart away 
Good question. Hadnāt even thought of that.
I might add there was some supporting almost divergence on the RSI as well, notice the almost.
Nice trade right back at you.
Well done trade.
If we add together the latest 4 daily candles, including today as it is right now, weāre looking at a doji.
I quite agree with your outlook/bias, the old trendline will provide a test and who knows where price will go from there.
I was looking for an obvious reversal around the 0.93-0.935 level, but I stayed out of the IB-ish one that you took as it didnāt fit in with my plan. I agree with your bearishness though and Iām looking for a good setup to get me in short.
The dream would of course be a break back below the old trendline and then a failed retest of said line.
Iām not going to jump any guns to get in, Iām still very much working on my patience and writing down a trading plan is a step on the path to [I]really[/I] treating this like the business it is. Iāve had lapses of bad judgment, such as the NZDUSD - getting in short at a swing low! Somebody shoot me now :rolleyes:. That was emotion getting the better of me and the excitement I felt over the setup should have been a warning sign to me. This year I will pay much more attention to keeping emotions in check. In that regard, trying LITS on my live account will have to wait until at least after the summer, maybe even til 2011. I wonāt risk anything until I have many months of consistency under my belt.
Anyway, it feels very good to have put my rules on paper (well, on bits and bytes) and I already sense the effect it has on me. This was a very smart thing of me to do and something Iāll recommend to anybody new or relatively new at this. Will post it soon.
Well, mind that this is a work in progress. There will surely be additions and changes, but for now this will have to do:
Rules and Goals
[ol]
[li]Main goal for 2010 is for the trading account to show a positive balance by 2010-12-31 as compared to itās balance on 2010-01-01[/li][li]General goal is to achieve an average of 6% or more account growth per month consistently over time[/li][LIST=1]
[li]This translates into roughly a yearly account growth of 100%, that is, a doubling[/li][/ol]
[li]Only time frames allowed for trading are daily and weekly. Monthly may be used for directional bias[/li][li]Risk will always be 3% of account on every trade[/li][ol]
[li]No more than 6% of account may be at risk at any one time[/li][/ol]
[li]All chart analysis is performed on a FXPro demo[/li][ol]
[li]FXPro daily candles are used for daily bar cut-off[/li][/ol]
[li]All trades are entered at the break of the setup formation[/li][li]Stop Losses are always used and are always placed a small distance beyond the high/low of the setup formation[/li][ol]
[li]Stop Loss is moved to Break Even when the trade has moved enough into profit that a retrace to the entry point would suggest the potential failure of the setup[/li][/ol]
[li]Charts and trades are checked/managed only once per day, in the hours before FXPro starts a new daily candle[/li][li]Exits are performed by trailing the SL behind S/R levels for trades with the trend, and with fixed full TP for counter trend trades[/li][ol]
[li]No partial exits and no scaling out[/li][/ol]
[li]Additional funds will be transferred to the account after every net profitable month[/li][li]Setups are based off of technical analysis alone.[/li][ol]
[li]News/fundmentals etc is entirely ignored[/li][li]Setups are chosen based on Pring/J16 methods[/li][LIST=1]
[li]Only the absolutely best are chosen[/li][li]A guess/estimate is 1-5 trades per month[/li][li]Every trade has to be able to offer a reasonable expectation for at least 1R[/li][li]Screenshots of entries and exits will be taken for all trades and posted in my thread[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[li]A rough outline of the chart analysis:[/li][ol]
[li]Location[/li][LIST=1]
[li]Relation to PPZs, trendlines, round numbers, space to move[/li][/ol]
[li]Pring chart patterns present[/li][li]Trend or range[/li][ol]
[li]Trend[/li][LIST=1]
[li]with the trend[/li][li]counter trend[/li][/ol]
[li]Range[/li][/LIST]
[li]Candle formation quality[/li][li]Confluences supporting the setup:[/li][ol]
[li]Moving averages such as EMAs 50, 100, 150, 200, 365[/li][li]Oscillator divergence, such as MACD, RSI etc[/li][li]fibonacci confluences[/li][li]Etc[/li][/ol]
[li]Expected minimum price target zone[/li][/LIST]
[li]LITS[/li][ol]
[li]First LITS trade can be taken after six consecutive months of profit[/li][li]Max six LITS setups can be traded per year[/li][LIST=1]
[li]Entry on the break level only[/li][li]Maximum total account risk for a LITS setup is 5%[/li][li]Can only be traded on the following pairs due to spread[/li][LIST=1]
[li]AUDUSD[/li][li]EURGBP[/li][li]EURJPY[/li][li]EURUSD[/li][li]GBPUSD[/li][li]USDJPY[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[/LIST]
[/LIST]
Well, I should be hard on myself. Thereās nobody else who can play that part since trading is a lonely game for me and most other retail traders. We have to yell at ourselves as nobody else will do it for us.
What I did was enter after price had broken through and then already begun to retrace. I didnāt actually enter at the break and I didnāt enter at a sign that the retrace was done either. I just jumped in blindly not wanting to miss the trainā¦ Stupid. Iāve also learned something else about myself - Iām not built for playing monthly bars, I donāt have that much patience. Iāll use monthly for bias, but will seek to enter on daily or weekly.
The CADJPY trade was stopped out a BE a while ago. Well, thatās ok, itās not a loss and that the main thing. Itās at a frustrating moment like just now that itās really good to have that trading plan to look to and tell myself: [I]No, I just trade dailies, not that half assed 1H pin bar that just formed. Thatās revenge you nasty old feeling whispering to me and my trading plan has taken out a restraining order against you. Go away[/I].
You do have to love the fact that I was stopped out [B]to the pip[/B] before price turned around again and formed two 1H pin bars. Methinks they must have been stop hunting me and my trillion dollar position
I find that it works really well for me. I didnāt make the plan for that purpose, but thatās a very nice side effect.
So, nice and quiet until itās time to check tonightās charts. Right now, fiber looks interesting. Well, weāll see if thereās anything AĀ±ish later.
GBP/JPY & GBP/USD are also teetering on the edge of a drop on the 4h.
Yes I see that bar too. Iām a bit bothered by the closeness of the old trendline though so Iām going to watch it play out from the sidelines.
I had a quick look through the charts and a common theme among the best setups seems to be that CAD is one of the currencies in the pair.
Not sure if thereās anything worth risking money on. Will have to have another look. AUDCAD and EURCAD look the best. hmmm
Kind of odd being short CAD yesterday and now thinking about a long CAD positionā¦
No, no trades tonight. Did look long and hard at AUDCAD which looks pretty good. Con is the traffic zone which price will be heading straight into as soon as it breaks. Also I havenāt gotten around to placing my PPZs on that pair, so I donāt feel quite comfortable taking it.
Confluence from fibs as price is between the 50 and 38 fibs having bounced off of the 61. Also bounced off a falling trendline and broke the long up trendline, so itās not a bad setup really.
Not an A+ setup, but probably an A or a B+
Iām having a hard time tonight deciding whether to place a short pending on GBPCAD or not. Itās the best setup on the charts today that Iāve found.
Hmmā¦
Iāll have to think about that for a while.
Well, thereās not that much confluence really apart from some RSI divergence on 4H.
edit: well thereās a head and shoulders thatās already broken on 1H too, but we donāt really trade 1H, now do weā¦
Weāre not really at a very substantial swing high either and the down trendline of late is pretty steep which may be a warning sign that it wonāt hold forever.
Itās an ok setup, but Iām taking a pass on it knowing there will be setups in the future that reach out of the screen and scream TRADE ME. This isnāt one of those.
We want the best only.
Turns out I can see oil listed in my mt4 demo, but I canāt actually get the chart. Bummer.
Looks like there are some interesting things happening on the dailies of several pairs as the week is drawing to a close. Something for the weekend.
After much thinking Iāve decided to place one pending order:
It turned out to be AUDUSD short @ 0.9150 with a SL @ 0.9350. Target undecided but 0.88 should be within reach. Risk 3%
Reasons for placing this order:
Another bounce off of 0.9330 resistance
Daily 2 bar reversal
āFeelingā that upside momentum wasnāt present last week
Divergence price/MACD
Long trend of higher high and lows were broken in mid December
Bullish pin bar on USDX weekly last week
If order is activated this will also mean last 4H low has been broken
This is not an A+ setup, but probably a B+ or an A.
Here the chart:
Martin Luther King Bank Holiday in the US today. Markets have been light volume.
The AUDUSD order hasnāt been hit but after some consideration Iāve decided to keep it for a while.
I donāt see anything else in particular on the charts tonight.
Removing my pending order on AUDUSD. Price is chopping around and the setup which the pending was placed on is now unclear at best.
I may instead place a short pending on GBPUSD later tonight, havenāt decided yet.
Just trading dailies takes some patience but I feel that itās right for me. Much less stress and less screen time. So far, since starting with my trading plan Iāve had just one trade, a break even. Well, just one or two trades per month will do just fine.
Iāll post again with a chart if I decide to place a pending on GU.