Much the same for me, but when I got to that point, I picked a system that I wanted for the long run, and sat down and learned that, which took another couple of months.
Here’s a setup I’m seriously contemplating.
Why does it interest me?
[ul]
[li]Nov-Feb monthly bars have a morning star-ish look[/li][li]Recently broke above 7.70 which is a PPZ[/li][li]Pulled back and retested 7.70 - it held[/li][li]After Wednesday’s close we now have a two day bullish pin bar[/li][li]Plenty of space for the trade to run along with a good location to hide a stop - good risk:reward potential[/li][li]I currently have a bullish USD view[/li][li]MACD divergence (I know it’s a bearish divergence but I’m more interested in the divergence per se)[/li][/ul]
I’m still thinking though but here’s the chart:
Well, Oanda weekend spread is a whopping 1000 pips, so I’m scratching it. Even with a 1500 pip SL, a retrace and then the weekend spread is enough to bring a position close to the SL.
More waiting then…
For the week - +1 +4 +2 +3 +5 +1 +1 - a total profit of 5%, and I’m done for this week.
And on top of it, I’m not stressed, and I’ve spent a total of about 7 hours I think.
Not a bad guess actually 4!, just for safety, if it goes wrong I’m well out of it by then.
I’ve been trading this kind of thing for nearly 12 months now, I was having really good success, actually a bit more profit than I do now, by having the 4 pairs up on 5 minute chart in 4 quarters to fill the screen, so I could see about 4 - 5 hours on each pair, the dual monitor setup is handy for this, then I would identify ranges and trends and trade accordingly, scalping anything between -15 and +30 PIPS maybe, it was good, but I wanted to be less stressed about my trading and a smoother profit curve, so I pinned it down to this system, takes quite a bit of practice, it’s not like if you trade this way you’ll make a little money, but if you do it the proper way you’ll make more, but you can just practice it and practice it until it’s like riding a bike.
and no horses in sight
Well, nothing on the charts whatsoever tonight.
Seems we’re in the middle of a retracement in the dollar strength trend. There may be nice setups when this retracement turns. If it turns of course, but such is my current bias.
I’d like to see a higher low carved out and ultimately a break of the 0.93 area before I change bias.
I agree on the 0.89 level being an important PPZ and a break above does put the downtrend into question.
This thread is going to get really boring it seems.
Anyway, no trades tonight.
EURGBP looks pretty bearish with lst week forming a nice bearish outside bar with the close below the 0.87 PPZ. Trading a break and close below 0.86 could be an option but it doesn’t feel that attractive selling after such a long downtrend.
I guess I’m more of a retrace trader than a breakout one.
Other than that I’ve added two Edward Thorp books to my list of things to read, Beat the Market, and, The Mathematics of gambling.
I’ve found both of them free and legal on the net, so I’m posting one of them here if anyone is interested.
For some inexplicable reason I was unable to upload the other one, even as a zip it wouldn’t work. Don’t ask why, I have no idea.
Thorp, E O - Beat The Market.pdf (1.8 MB)
Some time ago I happened to subscribe to DailyFX emails from Joel Kruger. I still receive them.
This is a cut and paste from a mail I got today:
[B]Talking Points[/B] We are currently long EUR/CAD @1.4350 and will hold onto the position in anticipation of a major correction over the coming days. Our initial stop-loss had been placed @1.4190, but given the nature of the market at present (daily RSI below 20 = Severe), we are more comfortable holding the position without a hard stop in place. Negligible cost of carry makes the decision all the more compelling. We will continue to keep you updated as things develop.
Joel Kruger
Technical Currency Strategist
DailyFX Research Team
This isn’t even the first time he’s done that. Last year he tried selling the EURGBP exactly when it made a parabolic bullish move. Being certain it [I]had[/I] to reverse, he reestablished a position after already having been stopped out and then he removed the stop on that as price continued moving against him. I’m not sure I remember 100% correctly but I’m not far off.
Anyway, to me, that sort of behavior is as unforgivable as it is stupid. So far this year his equity is down… I don’t care if he turns out to be right this time, that’s not the point at all.
My point is that discipline is key. Without we might just as well give our money straight away to the red cross and let it do some good somewhere.
Here’s a trade I came close to placing a pending order on.
In the end I didn’t like the pattern of lower highs and there wasn’t any confluence that I could find.
Good setup, location, bar, but not quite what I want.
Trading is a game of patience, we will wait some more.
I will. I’m just very picky and I want the water to be just the right temperature before jumping in.
I’m aiming to completely rid myself of the “must find a trade” attitude that plagues most of us, me included.
I won’t fire until that A+ walks straight into my crosshairs and sticks its tongue out at me. I’ll wait as long as I have to.
Let’s see how intelligent it was to remove the stop and rely on praying or whatever (remember this guy is a so called pro):
Ahh, sweet - we got a new low today… Yep, that long position is feeling more and more attractive huh :eek:
This is why disciplined traders are the only ones that survive.
I’m looking at three instruments tonight:
GOLD
SILVER
USDCAD
Hmm…
Silver it is.
Pending order to sell at 15.75 with a SL at 16.35
Supporting factors:
200EMA
16.00 PPZ
Bearish structure with lower high and low
38 fib retrace coincides with reversal formation
Well, here’s the chart:
3% risk, let’s see what happens.
Keep us posted, I’m interested to see what’s going to happen.
Best Regards,
Matt Jones .
My trading Log for the week 2.5 PIPS and 3.8, a quiet week, a small profit.