My Trading Log

No, there’s something wildly wrong somewhere

This link will set it straight:

Forex Interest Calculator | Calculate Forex Interest - OANDA FXTrade

I’m deleting my misleading posts…

Turns out something like -18.69 $ for a 10 000 unit position for 480 hours

That’s a bit different huh :o

Well done running with that trade :slight_smile:

Going outside into the blizzard now to feed the birds for tomorrow. Brrr. Will see about posting that monthly bias thing later or it might be tomorrow instead.

That is entirely dependent on my objective and my chosen way to get there.
If my chosen way is flexibility then yes, I would take a longer term trade in the spot market possibly combined with CFD, Options and/or Futures.

Swap is another item under cost just like commission ect. That would need to be calculated and laid down in your game plan you would have ready for a longer term trade.

It’s quite costly shorting for instance AUDUSD for a long holding period.

It’s cheaper than GBPUSD. :slight_smile:

Martin Pring had an interesting observation in his book. He had done statistics on the patterns he presents in his book.

His conclusion was that price patterns do work and, they have a significantly higher win rate when they form with the major trend.

This again reinforces the saying that the trend is your friend.

So, we prefer to trade setups that go with the trend. How do we decide what the major trend is then???

Well, again nothing revolutionary. We look at the time frames above the one we trade on. I trade dailies and the occasional weekly. For me, monthly would be good to look at for an idea of the major trend.

Here are a few monthly charts, can we form a bias here?


Here we see a January inside bar that’s been broken to the down side during the first week of February. Hmm… Possible bias anyone?


Chart says it all huh? Bearish two bar formation at somewhat of a swing location. Hmm…


Again, if you’re thinking of going long, you’ll be going against the last 3-4 bars. January doesn’t exactly say long, does it? Hmm…


Another bearish two bar formation. Then again, some ranging action. Hmm…


Wow, feel like going long against the October, November and January bars?


What about shorting this pair, you’d be shorting against two bullish pin bars, both still valid. Short anyone?


Last example, self explanatory. These are just examples of how we can use higher time frames to guide us. If you trade 1H, then maybe it’s the daily chart you want to have a look at.

Am I saying we shouldn’t trade against the trend?
No, that’s fine. But we need to be aware of the difference in pip potential. The counter trend trade is likely to reverse completely against us sooner or later, the trade with the trend is less likely to do that.

Well, nothing that screams [B]trade me[/B] tonight.

Gold, NZDUSD and USDCAD look a bit interesting. Gold is counter trend but the other two could have been worth playing if they had formed at more of a swing location.

There will be better setups along for the patient trader. No trades tonight.

Those setups would have worked pretty nicely.

Better out wishing you were in than the other way around though. No rush to trade, there will be more chances.

Nothing very interesting on the charts tonight. Well, interesting sure, tradeable for me, no.

EURGBP looks a bit like it might be heading lower, that’s about it.
USD strength today, everything moving with the trend so no opportunity to jump on the trend right now. No doubt there will be retraces… Patience makes the trader profitable.

NFP tomorrow anyway, caution advised.

:slight_smile:

So instead of just being down 5% on equities, your trading skills have hedged all or part of that equity drop.

Well done Matt! :slight_smile:

The smart money would seem to have been right… that’s why they’re called smart… :wink:

HaHaha
they must have known something.
I keep following them as far away as I possible can on the stop location map.
I don’t know what they are up to next.

World’s top bankers fly in to meet at secret location; Trouble on the horizon
Secret summit of top bankers | News.com.au

We will see. :slight_smile:

Warning: off topic

Here’s something I found on the net.

If you live in the illusion that money isn’t an important source of happiness, read the attached pdf.

Maybe I’m a sadly materialistic person, but this article happens to agree with my views to a high degree. Money isn’t everything, but it’s a big part of it.

Found here: TraderFeed
Pdf downloaded from here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/File/116113/Angus%20Deaton%20Gallup%20Poll%20Article.pdf

Angus.pdf (990 KB)

Nothing warranting a trade order tonight.

I’m developing a decision/analysis support spreadsheet, or actually two.
I like the structured process it results in. Less room for emotion.

All this non trading is actually very peaceful and enjoyable. Knowing I just need one or a few trades per month removes the stress, for me at least.
And if not a single trade presents itself, then I’ll just wait for next month.

That, and having and following a trading plan to the letter, has made a huge difference to me.

I’ve finally found the time frame that suits me and insignificant as that may sound, I believe it’s a big deal. Dailies it is, the odd weekly maybe. 4H, what’s that? :smiley: (ok, I do look at them sometimes, but only for additional information on how price moved).

Question: How do you increase your odds of finding really good setups?

Answer: Add more instruments to your watchlist.

Tonight I’ve added 12 pairs to my watchlist which is now made up of 38 pairs instead of 26.

As for the charts tonight, still nothing to warrant my attention really.

Here’s a setup I looked at for a while before discarding it.

I think it’s pretty good really but I’m one day late to it and the other drawback is that it goes against the monthly bars. Other than that it’s good. I only want the very best though, so no trade for me.

That was the best I found on the charts, so no action tonight either.
This thread will bore most to death I suspect but it’s really about taking a sniper approach instead of the shotgun approach, to steal a phrase from the J16 thread.

Shotguns are for small game;)

I generally use one though.

It’s harder to miss:p

That’s another reason to grow our accounts slow and steady. It gives us time to adapt our mindset and to learn to trust in ourselves and our skills.
Adding continuously, but only after profitable months is a way of rewarding good behavior and at the same time growing the account slowly without making an equity “jump” that might suddenly make you hesitate as the % risk stays the same but the $ risked grows.

In a couple of years we’ll have enough experience to not be spooked by a retrace even with a large account, because of time, skill, self confidence and experience.

No rush, we’re both young and it’s better to do this properly.

Nowadays I don’t care one bit about claims others make about their performance. It’s of no significance to me. I used to at least have a closer look, always finding there was nothing to see. I’ve stopped doing that now, unconsciously - I just realized it.

Trading isn’t fun/exciting anymore, I guess I must be on the right path.

Geez, another rant, sorry about that.

In a couple of years we’ll have enough experience to [B]not be spooked by a retrace[/B] even with a large account, because of time, skill, self confidence and experience.

HaHaha
you’ll go on spooking instead.

[B][I]Trading isn’t fun/exciting anymore[/I][/B], I guess I must be on the right path.

My congratulations! :slight_smile:

When you have come that far in your thinking about your trading you’re actually there in my experience. Nice.