In the interest f protecting my capital I’ve moved my SL on USDJPY to BE as today’s price action suggests price may revisit my entry level.
If i get stopped out I will be looking to reenter if/when appropriate.
Well, out at BE then. No open trades and no pending orders at this time.
Wow!
What a day in the markets huh! USDJPY proceeded to drop like a meteorite and finally took out some poor people’s stops just below 88. Today’s range was 600 pips…
Tomorrow it’s NFP Friday and I’m staying out of the markets for the rest of the week. Going to lick my mental wounds from getting a BE trade instead of a long runner.
The Dow at one point dropped 1000 points first time in history!There were warnings of some corrections when the vix started to perk up last week.I guess the main word being used is Contagion.The rollover effect it will have on there neighbors(Greece) remains to be seen?
Yes, we are soon going to find out if the Eurozone is able to ride this storm out, or if the contagion will spread and pull the whole zone down. If the worst happens I’m guessing that the entire world economy will reenter a recession as China and other exporters will be out of customers.
Potentially, I would speculate that this may turn out worse and have a more prolonged effect than the credit crisis had back in 2008.
I must say that I really hope this Greek tragedy can be contained and dealt with. Nobody wants another recession, the first one was rough enough.
This i got of a blog, an article by JP Morgan, the first few sentences say it all:
The bailout does little to answer questions on Ireland, Spain and Portugal; is the new “safe zone” having a line of credit that takes you out of the capital markets for 3 years? Their public sector debt burdens are not as bad as Greece, but they suffer from some of the same (or larger) corporate debt burdens and productivity gaps vs core Europe.
It’s hard to keep track of all the EMU pillars being discarded at once (no bailouts, changes to ECB collateral rules, Eurozone rating agency). Will ECB purchases of sovereign bonds be next? The Fed and Bank of England have done this in spades; but Europe is different. German Constitutional Court rulings in 1993 asserted powers to review ways in which European institutions might be exceeding rights conferred to them. Furthermore, the US and UK do not have to grapple with a history of monetization of government debt as a contributor to military, economic and social disaster (1923). That may be why Merkel remarked last month that “Europe is not only a community of peace, it is a community of stability
When, if Germany starts buying Greeces junk bonds can anybody say “fire in the hole”.:eek: Lets hope they can put the fire out and contain it .
That sounded sweaty…
I yelled out 7500 before the bid and ask got any wider!
Well, I’ve not been in any rush to trade last few days as I’m waiting for the markets to calm down slightly first.
Analyses of AUDJPY and USDJPY are coming up later in the week and if I’m successful in my tinkering I may be able to share some preliminary thoughts on possible additional methods of trading which may nicely supplement my basic style.
We will see.
No trades tonight but I’m watching AUDUSD and NZDUSD for short setups. They are both starting to look inviting on higher time frames, Looks like major topping formations are building up and possibly nearing completion.
My fundamental view is that we’re at the beginning of phase two of what began in 2008 and this phase may be more drawn out and less dramatic than the credit crunch, but it may be just as serious if not worse. I would not be buying stocks right now… but like I’ve said many times before, my prognoses are just as reliable as tea leaves…
Anyhow, USDJPY is in no mans land currently as far as I’m concerned.
I’m going to start watching for a retrace on EURUSD as well to get on short. It seems more and more to me like we might be heading for parity against the USD or even beyond. If it keeps going south there may be interventions from both the US and the euro zone to try to halt the decline, but as is well known, these sorts of interventions are almost always futile - maybe good places to go short ;).
risk aversion, global panic
the proposed mining tax,
reserve bank have hinted that interest rate increases have peaked…for now
No, not quite sure what’s behind this major drop. Probably several issues working together. The RBA hint that the interest rate won’t be raised for a while must be a big part of it.
There are also signals that China might be slowing down and since they’re the cheif customer for Aussie commodities, that may contribute.
Blend in some general risk aversion and throw in the mining tax pipsnorter mentions and maybe that’s enough to explain the drop.
I haven’t been very active lately for several reasons. I blame part of it on the nice weather but I also have to say that the markets have been quite volatile and I haven’t been able to find any setups that I really liked. I was at the computer when USDJPY was at 88 and I was thinking: I should buy here! but then discipline took over and I didn’t. Although it would have been a very good trade I’m pleased that I followed my rules and my trading plan.
The main reason though is that I’ve spent a very large amount of time searching for a somewhat more mechanical approach to supplement my main trading approach with.
I’ve decided to search high and low, so to speak. Along the way I’ve found some very interesting information.
I guess the main find was a reaffirmation of something I already knew: there is no such thing as a consistently profitable 100% mechanical system. Period. I already knew this but it was still interesting to see how all, and there are many, threads dealing with these attempts crumble and die after varying amounts of time.
I’ve also been reassured by finding that the only threads that survive and thrive are threads that focus on S/R and PA in different forms.
What has this meant for my search then? Was it pointless?
The answer is no, I’ve learnt a lot and I may actually have a viable short time frame method, perhaps more on that in the future, I will work on it more first and then I’ll seek input from Matt before making a fool of myself. If it does seem to be viable after that I’ll post about it.
Anyway, I’m left with six new threads that I’m going to look through and they’re all quite long so it’ll take its time.
Major weekly BUOB on EURCAD is the best setup I’ve found on the weekend charts. Let’s say that this is the definition of counter trend…
Buying the euro just seems so wrong… then again, a chart is a chart. Hmm, will have to think for a little while.
So true!
My 100% mechanical Sunday Breakout method showed great backtesting results for over 5 years, and I traded it live for about a year and made a ton of money with it, but it appears that it’s slowing dying now and isn’t profitable anymore.
I wouldn’t give up completely on mechanical systems though! The trick is to find one that works during current market conditions but doesn’t take back all your profit when it stops working. If you can tell that it’s usefulness is coming to an end, and stop trading it, then it’s not really a failed system.
True, and no trade was taken.
Plenty of pin bars tonight. I suffer from a serious lack of time or I might have placed an order tonight. Well, there will more setups.
It’s a stay out for me this week, with my ‘micro’ strategy, but what I find interesting following this thread is, that what happens on a ‘micro’ (tick by tick if you like) basis is so relevant to what happens on the larger timeframes.
What I’m getting at the moment is the impression that setup aren’t setups at the moment, it’s more of something like support/reversal setups at support areas, but it could decide to just drop at any moment.
Maybe I’m wide of the mark, but I’m sure I notice that when it’s a good time for my strategy it is good for others as well, it may simple be that if the market is jittery on a tick by tick level, it will be jittery on a longer timeframe also.
Not at all unlikely. There’s certainly more uncertainty than usual currently in the markets.
I’ve been very short on time lately and haven’t been able to watch the markets as I’d like to so that’s the main reason I’ve been pretty quiet.
I get the feeling the tension is building and a big breakout will happen any day.
Today saw a good move but it stopped abruptly at New York close, I think we will know tomorrow when London gets going if today’s move was the start of a bigger retrace or the limit of the current range. That’s the extent of my analysis and prediction very noncommittal I sound like a politician :rolleyes:
I have been trading bol bounces on a 15 min chart so the range bound choppiness has been great for me.