Well, the big question is of course still: can Europe cure itself or not?
Until we get some sort of an answer to that the markets will continue to exhibit extreme swings between risk aversion and risk appetite.
I’ve had a look at the charts and as always there’s a lot of interesting things to notice. As usual few of these things actually offer useful setups.
I’m noticing a large number of weekly inside bars, for instance GBPJPY.
The only chart that I’d care to trade is EURGBP which looks enticing for a short if it breaks below the low of the last few weeks. R:R troubles me slightly though as the setup is a weekly one I’m finding that the SL would have to be around 400 pips. I’ll be watching for a daily setup to get me on board for a ride south.
Silver might be forming a head and shoulder on the daily. It will be interesting to see what Gold decides to do around the 1225 level. USDJPY is another pair on my radar, I’m still looking for long setups but there’s nothing there yet.
As I won’t be placing any trades tonight that means May will pass as a no trades month, aka a no loss month. Ergo, I’ve transferred some funds to my account in accordance with my trading plan.
Something to think about for sure! 
Extremely long overdue…
As we all know by now AUDJPY did decide to drop off a cliff. Unfortunately that happened without me on board.
Here’s the chart as it looked when I entered the trade on April 18:
Nothing wrong so far. The trade is counter trend but the signal is quite good imho. Price has clearly shown an inability to break above the trendline and when i enter the trade it has begun to drop sharply.
Now let’s see what actually happened:
On April 26 I’m taken out as price moves above the high of my entry setup. It then proceeds to test these high for another week before it falls of the cliff.
All in all I think the setup was good. The con was the counter trend factor but even so it was a fair setup. It was also a setup that failed. These things happen, simple as that.
Conclusion is that I would probably have taken this trade again so I see no reason to criticize my trade selection and trade management here.
This trade setup was, in my book anyway, a very good one. I expected this to be a potential runner. And it was, sort of… it just spurted the wrong way.
When I entered the trade price had broken a major down trendline and just recently it had also once again broken back above a newer rising trendline after finding support at the 92.00 PPZ.
A setup with the trend, with fundamentals to support it. everything looking good by April 20:
For a while everything looked good but then suddenly something happened that wasn’t supposed to happen - price dropped big time, almost erasing my profit.
Here’s where my gut feeling stepped in and I decided to rather avoid a loss and get stopped out only to see price resume its climb, than to take a loss.
This turned out to be a wise decision and I would do it again. When something seems wrong, protect your capital first!
This is what happened:
Again I’m pleased with both the setup and my trade management. No criticism warranted. It was a high probability trade setup and it failed. I got out at BE.
on to the next trade, whenever that will be 
Hopefully before New Year 
Btw, just an update on my account status. Nothing exciting here to say the least…
Maybe not exciting but 5% drawdown on an account open as long as yours is something many of the traders around these parts myself included would be proud of. So should you.
Thanks guys! 
They say third time’s a charm right? Or is it third time lucky? Nevermind.
Let’s test that concept with another shot at XAGUSD. I’m spying a head and shoulder-ish look taking shape on the daily charts. We may also be forming a major double top going back to December.
Recently price failed at the 19.50 level and week before last saw a major bearish weekly bar. Last week was a slight retrace of that bar, but not very impressive.
Drilling down to the 4H and zooming out the latest uptrend looks to me like it may be running out of steam around the 18.60 PPZ.
Fundamentally the commodities seem to be in trouble which also strengthens the case for a short silver position.
Obviously 17.50 is a major support and the SL will have to be moved to BE if price approaches that level.
Here’s what I’m thinking:
Short XAGUSD at 18.20 with a SL at 18.70. 2% risk. Move to BE around 17.60.
Chart:
That’s the curse of using FxPro for charting and Oanda for the trading.
FxPro had 18.67 as the high to place the SL beyond, so I decided for 18.70. When I placed the order with Oanda I saw that their charts had a high of 18.7070… I may adjust my SL very slightly to be a small distance above Oandas highs. It’s worth mentioning that the lows didn’t agree between the two either. It’s something to do with the metals it seems as I’ve not noticed discrepancies like that on the ordinary FX pairs.
Well, the pending order for a silver short was filled today and we will see what happens. Now it’s up to the market, I’ve done my part which was finding a good probability setup.
I decided to change my stop on Oanda to 18.75 to place it a few pips above the high of the setup formation.
GBPCAD is forming a two bar reversal formation and it’s pretty interesting. The part I don’t quite like is the traffic - the pair has been ranging since March.
USDJPY is behaving better again and if we get a break above and a retest of 92 I might start considering another go at a long. Time will tell.
If the reward to risk was better I’d be hard pressed not to place a short pending on Gold tonight. Unfortunately there’s that HUGE daily uptrendline close by which smirks at me and promises to eat my 2% if I try anything.
I’ll be watching for a break of that trendline…
I’ll also be watching for a successful retest of the 92 level on USDJPY.
Tomorrow’s NFP day so I won’t be placing any orders tonight. If Silver continues down I’ll be keeping half an eye on it tomorrow for a potential move to BE.
Quick update: I did indeed move my SL to BE on Friday. The silver short is now a free trade and currently at 1.15R.
I plan to be back tomorrow with a weekend FX check.
After having had a look at the weekend charts I’d say that GBPCHF is the one that looks the most interesting. Not enough for a trade, but worth watching. There’s a weekly pin bar rejecting the 1.70 area of resistance. At the same time there’s a long term down trendline that was rather recently broken and we also have a bit of traffic to the left on the chart.
Other pairs worth keeping an eye on might be GBPUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF.
No new trades for me tonight though.
Btw, where did the weekend go? I’m sure I must have been cheated out of some of it, it can’t be right that it’s Monday again in seven minutes 
Well, no uplifting news tonight.
I was stopped put at BE on my Silver short. No current open positions or pending orders. Then again, BE counts as a winner in my book.
I’ll have a look at the charts tonight and see what stories they have to tell.
Let’s analyze this BE trade while it’s still fresh in my memory.
The XAGUSD short setup was based on several factors but the most important one was the fact that a daily head and shoulders formation was forming. It’s true however that they’re not complete until they break as Pring points out. This head and shoulders was also part of the ranging zone that broke the last major uptrendline.
This along with price’s failure to challenge the 18.75-ish resistance zone was enough to convince me to place a pending short.
If price managed to break through the 17.50 major support, then there would be a possibility to catch a good reward ratio on the trade and it was with the intention of either holding the trade through 17.50 or get stopped out that I placed my order.
Here’s what the entry chart looked like:
Unfortunately I was stopped out at BE today and here’s what the exit chart looks like:
This was, in spite of the outcome, a trade I’m pleased with. I moved to BE at the right time and I’d rather get stopped out at BE than to see a trade go from 1R+ to a loss.
BE trades count as winners in my records and as I’m happy both with the setup selection and my trade management I guess there’s only one thing to do - a pat on my own back and on to the next setup.
All righty. No new pending orders tonight. Gonna get some sleep now for a change!
No trades tonight either.
Remember that we get paid for patience. 
Noteworthy on the charts:
Silver is failing to break above the last top, this might mean something. I’m short biased again but I’m not sure that the setup is pretty enough right now so I’ll be watching only for now.
USDCHF looks interesting as it is right now on the weekly. This could be a potential trade to come.
No trades that jump out and shout at me to trade them tonight though.
Another night of no trades. Getting to be a bad habit huh :rolleyes:
Tonight I actually see several interesting pairs. The bad news is that I’ve been busy all weekend and as a result I’m way past bedtime and no time to sit down now to study setups in detail.
No trades therefor but with more time for analysis there might have been…
Let’s watch and learn instead and hopefully I’ll have more time Monday night.
Pairs to keep an eye on: GBPAUD, NZDCAD, GOLD…(not yet but coming closer to a short), SILVER (still unable to break above resistance), USDCHF, USDJPY (weekly IB), USDNOK and my own pair - USDSEK.
Good trading to you all!