Here’s the entry chart and I guess it’s pretty obvious what I saw in the chart that made me place a pending order. Bearish outside bar at a swing high, bouncing off a PPZ area I’ve decided to make a best fit for at 1.2450.
(Actually, on Oanda’s chart it the entry setup forms a almost perfect evening star.)
Currently the trade is hovering around the entry level and now it is again time for some sitting on hands.
Ironically, The two other trades I was looking closely at yesterday, CADJPY and AUDJPY, have both fared better so far… I wrote CADJPY off due to the congestion area just below the entry setup and I decided against AUDJPY because of the potential support at the gap. Well well.
Several pairs do look sort of interesting though, for instance the AUD pairs all look very bearish.
If the stock markets are headed lower EURJPY might be a nice short.
GBP has reacted with strength from the UK budget news and GBPCHF is bouncing off of a retest of the falling trendline that was broken a while back.
GBPAUD is reacting higher at resistance turned support. USDCAD looks bullish with the PA of Monday and Tuesday.
None of them look quite good enough though for me to trade.
I have to admit it hurts a bit missing the CADJPY drop. I should have still been in that trade if I had been smarter about my SL. Well, no point whining about that. New setups will come.
Currently in EURUSD short, we’ll see where that goes.
Just have to add one thought before I’m off to bed.
Perhaps the greatest gift that Tymen has offered in his thread is the concept of the “CBL” - the Count Back Line. I’m realizing more and more that this tool may trump the ordinary Candlestick/Bar formations in its simple ingenuity.
I understand it was originally made public and perhaps invented by Darryl Guppy, well known Aussie trader.
This concept is something I’m going to have a very long and hard look at.
I’ll post a bit more on it later (I plan to anyway), but Tymen’s thread has all the info needed on the concept.
I’m thinking CBL and location/PPZ/S/R might make a very happy marriage.
4H would seem a reasonable TF although the concept is pretty universal.
It’ll be interesting to see what develops over at Tymen’s thread regarding the so called Macro method.
I have read that George Soros has been slating the EURO, if his word holds as much credence as they once did I think your EURUSD short will do pretty well.
Haven’t had much time for forex this weekend and so no weekend chart review…
I do see CADCHF looks like an interesting short on a retest of the PPZ but it’s not something I’m comfortable taking as I haven’t done my homework this weekend.
Will try to post tomorrow.
Currently in the UERUSD short, we’ll see where that’s going.
Today did turn out nicely for me as a short. Today’s FxPro close wiped out the gains from Wednesday to Friday last week. I could get out at BE now but I’m going to hold and see if the trend can’t be my friend.
You are quite right however that we may see nothing but chop up and down for weeks now.
OK, beautiful weather and a long unusually hard day at work (I was the only dentist on call in the whole city today, let me tell you that all the weird patients show up during summer holidays… if you only knew :D), and then some gym and running to clear my mind, and then some Brazil - Chile… well, not so much forex time tonight either.
Anyway, I will try to have a closer look at, and present some thoughts I have on the CBL concept tomorrow. Caveat - I haven’t read any of Guppy’s books yet but I managed to get hold of two of them.
I may also briefly mention a trader who makes a very good point on why indicators and sometimes even candle formations don’t work that well. Here, again, we shall see that the CBL concept shines.
Well, no trades tonight obviously. As I wrote to Matt, EURUSD is looking a bit better and hopefully tomorrow will see some follow through. Then again it’s not called turn around Tuesday for nothing, so we’ll see.
No trades tonight but GBPUSD is starting to form an interesting weekly bar setup and the daily view isn’t all that bad either.
USDJPY is now about to retest the falling trend line that was broken a while back. It’s also looking like it’s going to retest the major support at 88. Will be interesting to see what happens.
AUDCAD is also forming a pretty interesting weekly bar as it looks right now.
Today saw a good trade turn bad and then hit the SL. These things happen, it’s just the way of the markets.
EURUSD stopped out for a 2% loss.
Since inception my trading now stands almost exactly at BE.
Here’s the current figure:
And here’s tonights chart:
The good news: I feel that I have mastered the psychological aspect of trading and I’m fine with the current situation. No desire to do anything stupid such as revenge trading or the like, which I have been guilty of in the distant past.
More good news, I’m considering the possibilities of trading 1H-8H bars and not just dailies.
This would mean a major change to my trading plan and such a decision is not to be taken lightly therefore. I may chose to test it until the new year on a sub-account, thus keeping my main account and trading plan intact.
This would require extensive testing with petite position sizes, but as my old cell phone may be confiscated by the museum soon (it’s from 2006! :eek::D), I’m going to get myself a top of the line Android phone, hopefully this Saturday. This together with a simple chart service such as the ones at Fxstreet will allow me to easily trade during the work day. Finding the CBL concept has been a trigger as well, in these plans taking form, more on that at a later time.
Let’s just say that grading candle/bar formations is becoming less important with the CBL concept and location, if even possible, has become even more important.
Anyhow, my goal for the year is to not lose money and I’m still on track for that and I’m planning for the second half of the year to better my return a bit.
NFP tomorrow and fresh SL wounds to lick means no trades tonight.
I’m immediately running into a bit of a snag with my plans of trading while at work.
Apparently Oanda mobile doesn’t allow limit orders, only market orders. The only mobile choice is Iphone as they’ve made an app for that which offers the needed basics. Well, I’m not a fan of Apple so getting an Iphone is not an option. I want an Android phone. Period.
Unfortunately it doesn’t seem possible to run the “normal” FXTrade on Android either as “computer” Java isn’t wholly supported in Android
I’ll have to find another way. The problem is that Oanda is blocked in the firewall at work…
I’m condidering several options, such as running an old laptop at home and using Logmein, GoToMyPC, or TeamViewer to remote control it from work.
Or I’ll simply switch brokers to GFT who offer a web platform. I do like Oanda a lot though…
Or maybe I’ll look into Virtual Hosted Desktops…
I guess switching to GFT would be the simplest solution but this will require a lot of thought.
Of course I could bring a private laptop to work and keep in my office, I just don’t like the logistics of having to go in there to place orders etc.
Hmm, why can’t everything just work smoothly?
The sweetest solution would be Oanda developing an app for Android phones. Pretty please?
However, I’ll be watching several pairs with interest to see if my new CBL method on 4H might be something worth using. For now only watching to see how the market behaves.
I must admit though that CADCHF looks very interesting. It closed last week almost exactly at the biggest round number there is, 1.0, and this number also has acted as S/R in the past.
If I were using the 4H CBL approach, I’d place a pending order to go long at 1.0150 based on how my charts look right now. Roughly a 205-210 pip SL.
Mind that just looking at candle formations, there’s nothing on any time frame! That’s the beauty of a CBL…
This pair, along with other such as AUDCAD, NZDCAD, NZDUSD, XAGUSD and USDJPY will all be interesting to follow. Some of the pairs are not good enough that I’d trade them, but I’m trying to get a feel for using CBLs and strong PPZs together. NZDUSD for instance wouldn’t match my PPZ criteria, but I’m watching to learn now, not to trade.
Actual trading will continue according to my trading plan until I’m ready to either include CBLs and lower timeframes than daily, or to scrap this project.
Oh, and btw - I haven’t forgotten that I’m supposed to post on CBLs etc, just been busy. All in good time.
Well, I came home with my new phone, which is how I’m writing this, only to find the internet/phone cable on the ground… Not good… Most likely this means several days without internet. Not sure how I’ll survive this.
Anyway, no trades or much activity at all from me for a while. I’ll check in from work and on this, my new best friend!
Android for me. I don’t like Apple, never bought into their hype. I view them as the worst of all the big computer corps when it comes to stealing, threatening and making lawsuits right and left. That’s just my view and I’m [B]NOT [/B]opening for a debate here in case anyone should feel the need to explain how wrong I am…
Anyway, Apple was never an option for me, so I went with an Android phone, the Samsung Galaxy S I think it’s called. I’m in love to put it short…
Even better, sometimes God, or at least Oanda, apparently do answer prayers - they released their FxTrade Android App this weekend!
How sweet is that! In one stroke my need to think about complicated stuff like VPSs etc is gone. Schweeet.
In other news, my internet is still down… One of the fine things about living in the countryside :rolleyes:. I’m writing this through using the Samsung phone as a internet access point for my wlan… High-tec!
Anywho, it’s like 32 Celsius here and I’ve spent 2+ hours mowing the lawn. Time to go swimming soon. Just one more post.
