I’ll post my reasoning behind this along with the charts tomorrow. Just remember that this is in no way investment advice or anything like it, just me documenting my trading. Follow at your own risk!
Well, the setup for CADJPY was pretty obvious. Price has bounced several times at or around the 90 level and it appeared that this was yet again occuring as suggested by the daily bearish pin bar.
This trade I would describe as a range play.
Here’s what the chart looked like when I placed the pending order:
Today formed a bullish pin-like bar against the setup and now I just have to sit tight and either accept a 2% loss, or watch it turn and come back into profit.
It is hard, for me it was a matter of trial and error. After enough losses and foolishness I decided to do exactly as James16 suggests in his rules - be picky, very picky.
In a few years I’ll have enough data to start evaluating my trading. I intend to be around that long in the markets. (I know some people on another thread, I’m sure you can guess which, that will not be around anymore by then.)
I’m following Tymen’s thread with great interest now and I’ll see if I can contribute anything useful.
I’m interested in developing a trend trading method with high reward to risk and a reasonable win rate that is easy to apply and that is fairly mechanical although no profitable method will ever be entirely mechanical imho.
I’ve been dabbling in it a bit myself and it will be interesting to see what Tymen & co can come up with.
I originally found the J16 thread from reading the ‘Strat’s stress free trading’ (FF systems area) method which builds on J16 and goes into trend following.
On about page 20 or so he says “go and learn J16 and don’t go any further here until you know it thoroughly” - see you in 6 months time then Strat!
I intend to go back to it and start demoing it when I’ve passed J16 minimal requirements and am trading live.
I’ve been following both your threads and your interest in long term trading methods, methods that you can trade around your jobs, family life, etc.
I don’t know if you guys have been following Graviton’s thread, “Multi-Time Frame Trend Trading”. If you haven’t may I suggest you take a look the of “BEST OF GRAVITION”S THREAD” PDF that someone created.
This pass weekend I read it and IMO it’s really good information.
Most of the info in the PDF talks about Grav’s 5 lot, day and swing trade methods.
He also did a short but really good segment on his position trading methods, this is the part I think you’d both be the most interested in.
How he looks and waits for major trend changes, confirmation, entry points, adding to the position and taking profits along the way.
So if you haven’t read through Grav’s methods, I’d suggest you take a look at the PDF. IMO it’s really good information .
Don
EDIT: Long term trading section starts around page 74
Well, I was stopped out for a 2% loss today. Interesting thing is that if I had placed my SL at 90.10 - a few pips above the PPZ - I’d still be in the trade. That’s something I’ll learn from. It’s better to place the SL optimally on the other side of a PPZ if such exists nearby, than to try to minimize the SL to get a better R:R.
I guess that was pretty much the trade analysis as well. There’s one more thing though: I’m considering adding a rule about being allowed to exit trades that activate and then show no momentum. I’ll keep it in mind and I may add this rule later.
Here’s my current performance since inception. Not very impressive but I’m sure it’ll look better by the end of the year.