My Trading Log

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
1399

A little late but here it is, The 4H Trading Plan, ver 1.0:

        Rules and Goals:

[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve three consecutive profitable months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li][LIST=1]
[li] FXPro MT4 demo will be used for weekend charting and planning[/li][li] During office hours or when away from home Netdania.com ChartStation will be used for charting[/li][li] Trading will be performed with Oanda demo accounts[/li][li] Trades will be placed using Oanda FXTrade and Oanda FXTrade for Android[/li][/ol]

[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li]
[li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li][ol]
[li] The risk per trade will always be 2%[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 4%[/li][/ol]

[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 10x the normal risk, that is, 20%[/li][ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 40%[/li][/ol]

[/LIST]

[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL[/li][ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at 1R or shortly before[/li][/ol]

[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li][ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]

[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li][ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]

[li] Records:[/li][ol]
[li] Detailed records will be kept in a Google doc spreadsheet[/li][li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]

[li] During the weekend a detailed analysis is performed where pairs of interest are noted and added to the four pairs that will be the basic pairs of the watchlist. These four pairs are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD.[/li][li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li][ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]

[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li][ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li][LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]

[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]

[li]Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]

1400

Yes, it will be interesting to actually test it and not just speculate or read about it. My gut tells me that it works, but that most people fail with it due to nerves. Demo will only show if the math works, the nerves won’t reveal themselves until real money is risked.

First weekend analysis after summer due for tomorrow.

1402

True, but doing that would ruin the comparison of Kelly vs normal risk management all other things being equal.

1404

I’ve had a look at the weekend charts and I found many pairs that are trending on the 4H chart. I will attempt to enter with the trend using a CBL entry during retracements. If the retrace violates the 4H trend pattern by breaking the previous swing high/low the entry order is removed.

Here’s a long list of pairs that all fit the criteria currently:
Bear trending: CADJPY, EURCHF, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPCHF, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY
Bull trending: GBPCAD, XAUUSD, USDCAD

Common denominators seem to be yen, swissie strength and loonie weakness. Currently that is, things change quickly.

Obviously that’s a couple to many pairs so I’ve marked the imo most promising pairs red.

If I place pending orders on all of these I may end up in more simultaneous trades than the rules allow. Not sure what to do actually.
Maybe ver 1.1 of the 4H Trading Plan will cut the risk per trade to 1%/10% and keep the 4%/40% max simultaneous risk. That way I could simply decide which 4 pairs look the most promising for each day or week and follow them while putting the rest on the back burner and only check them in the evening.

I’ll check the charts tomorrow before work and maybe place some pending CBLs depending on what these pairs get up to tonight. Gotta sleep now if I’m gonna make it to work early tomorrow. That will be a first… :smiley:

1407

Exactly right, except the buffer may be smaller than 10 pips.

1408

If I had the skill to consistently filter out the best setups I certainly would. Unfortunately I don’t really seem to have that level of skill yet.

1410

Today was the premiere day of test running the demo trading.

I have already learned a few things today. The most important being that placing orders and checking the charts is completely different when you’re trying to do it while the dental assistant is going to get the next patient. What I’m trying to say is that relaxed time for proper analysis and thought is scarce - that has to be something I do in the evening.

So, I’m going to use the evening analysis to plan for the next day.

I placed two orders that both triggered today, CADJPY short and USDCAD long, both at 1%/10% risk. In other words, two bets on CAD weakness.

As for the 1% with max 4 trades vs 2% and 2 trades max, I haven’t reached a decision yet although I’m leaning toward 2 since that simply keeps things a bit simpler for me. In that respect today’s 1% position was incorrect. We’ll see what the decision is later.

I’ve felt a cold on the verge of breaking out for a few days so tonight I’m actually skipping the nightly chart analysis to see if I can sleep it off.

Here are the links to the myfxbook account tracking these two systems:

Normal risk: https://www.myfxbook.com/O990l6mh/intraday-phoenix-foundation-demo-system/44649

Kelly risk: [U]Intraday Phoenix Foundation Demo System with Kelly Money Management System | Myfxbook[/U]

1411

Oh, just one quick addition, SL moved to BE on both trades now.

1413

click
"If you were looking for the system’s page, please click here: Intraday Phoenix Foundation Demo System with Kelly Money Management System | Myfxbook "

1415

Hrrmm. :o

Edited my post with the correct links. Now it works.

1416

I must have been a bit off last night. When I checked just now the SL wasn’t at BE like I thought. I must have forgotten to change it on both demo’s and just did it on one of them… NOW it is at BE though and I got away with it. Still, first time I’ve made an error like that, not liking it.

I feel that tonight’s charts will have to go unchecked again unfortunately and the rest of the week will be very busy nights as well.

Anyhow, as I write this the standard demo is at +3.6% and the Kelly demo is at +36.4%, all figures are just floating profit aka pie in the sky.

Early conclusion is that if we just win all the time Kelly is going to work wonders… :stuck_out_tongue:

1418

I often have the same problem. I’ll be waiting hours or days for set-ups to make, then all the sudden the market moves and I have more than my trade rules allow. I will select 2 cbl entries over 1 cbl and I’ll select trades where the midband is pointing the least against the direction of my trade. So if I’m trying to trade down, all other things being equal I will select a trade where the midband is just barely pointing up, say pointing to 2:30 O’clock over one that is pointing against me more steeply like 1:45 O’clock. And of course, for a down trade I would choose a trade with a flat or slight downward pointing midband over one pointing up, but those are more rare. And for me, I will chose a trade in the direction of the higher level trend over one against the higher level trend. Not sure if any of these will help you, but some things to look at as you go along. Happy trading :slight_smile:

1419

Yep, no closed trades yet. Open positions and pending orders are visible though.

Or wait, USDCAD is actually closed, at BE though so no big equity jump there.

1420

Amen to that! And your posts do help, reading through your thread showed it to be one of the absolutely best threads I’ve come across and your advice is always welcome. :slight_smile:

1421

Busy busy and short on time. Won’t have much time for the rest of the week at all really so just a quick update:

CADJPY spent the day retracing against my position and USDCAD retraced so far that I was kicked out at BE.

Currently CADJPY still open and as I’ll be pretty busy and then there’s NFP on Friday I doubt I’ll get around to doing much more this week.

Seeing how even watching a few charts will take some time and energy I’m realizing that the evening analysis will be important to plan ahead for each coming day and the weekend analysis will be very important. I’m going to treat this much more seriously from now on.

In the same spirit I’m considering doing all my charting on Netdania and either use FXPro only for my live daily bar trading, or not at all. I need to simplify in every way possible, no need to make it harder than it has to be. And the funny thing is - trading is really pretty simple once you [I]get it[/I]. Most people never do though - they keep chasing their tails until they grow weary or run out of funds. I plan to not do that.

I haven’t been taking any daily trades of late and that is partly due to an intellectual battle going on in my head. I’m beginning to realize that trading trending 4H charts on retraces will often give exactly the opposite signal compared to looking at a daily pin bar for instance. The daily pin bar can simply be a retrace in the 4H trend without violating the higher high/higher low or vice versa pattern. Only when that pinbar also violates the HH HL or vice versa pattern does it really become “valid”.
I haven’t really been looking at things like that before but I now understand why professional traders don’t seem to obsess that much over bar formations and the quality of them. Bar formations in themselves mean less than I have previously thought. They really only mean something in conjunction with something like a break in the HH HL/LH LL pattern or a trendline break or a reaction off of a strong S/R zone, etc.

To put it short, I’m evolving in the way that I analyze a chart and as a result there’s a conflict between how I’ve used to do it before and how I’m doing now on the 4H demo. I will think a bit more about this but the likely outcome is that I will change my live trading plan to fit with how I do my analysis now. I’m not sure how to fit that together with just daily bars though… Will take some thought. Quite possibly I’ll just stop trading live and focus on the demo entirely and if/when I get those three consecutive months I’ll replace my live trading with the demo approach. Yeah, that’s probably gonna be the plan. In the mean time I’ll just load my account up a bit and if the Kelly experiment works out I’ll dedicate a small live sub account for that.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though. :slight_smile:

Lastly, myfxbook should be updated in a few minutes.

1424

Matt, agreed. I notice that if I have other good reasons to go short and I see a long pin bar bear candle I’ll call that a confirming signal to go short. But if I’m having a good bull trade, and the same bear pin bar candle occurs in the middle of it, I just totally ignore it. So it’s very reasonable to ask if the bear pin bar really made any difference in my trading or not. Really, probably not, since I wouldn’t take a trade solely on a pin bar formation and I wouldn’t exit a good trade if one shows up in the middle of it. In the end, I can’t keep my eyes from zooming in on these, but at best they are just confirming something I’ve already decided on for other reasons, and probably they have no benefit at all.

1425

That displays the highest balance the account has ever had, aka the all time top balance. It has nothing to do with open trades p/l. The reason it’s slightly more than 100.000 is due to the daily interest addition to your account balance.

If you switch to the “balance” tab instead you’ll see daily plots of both balance and equity. It doesn’t seem to show the absolute intraday high but rather end of day data. For instance, it shows the Kelly account to have had a max of just under 120.000 but it should be higher than that, so I’m guessing that just under 120 was the equity at the daily close but I haven’t checked it.

1427

Just updating quickly.

CADJPY was stopped out at BE as well and as a result the 4H demo currently stands at 2 BE trades with no open trades and no pending orders.

I’m going to update the 4H Demo Trading plan tonight or tomorrow with some small changes.
On the subject of max simultaneous risk I’ve decided to stay with 2%/20% per trade and no more than 4%/40% at risk at any one time. This is because I find that the whole market is quite strongly correlated and it would be unwise therefore to risk more at the same time.

1428

Rules and Goals:

[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve three consecutive profitable months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] Netdania.com ChartStation will be used for all charting[/li][li] Trading will be performed with Oanda demo accounts[/li][li] Trades will be placed using Oanda FXTrade and Oanda FXTrade for Android[/li][/ol]

[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li][li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li]
[ol]
[li] The risk per trade will always be 2%[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 4%[/li][/ol]

[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 10x the normal risk, that is, 20%[/li]
[ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 40%[/li][/ol]

[/LIST]

[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL[/li]
[ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at 1R or shortly before as circumstances allow[/li][/ol]

[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li]
[ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]

[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li]
[ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]

[li] Records:[/li]
[ol]
[li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]

[li] During the weekend a detailed analysis is performed where pairs of interest are noted and added to the four pairs that will be the basic pairs of the Watchlist. These four pairs are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD.[/li][li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li]
[ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]

[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li]
[ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]

[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]

[li]Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]

1429

Well, I’ve had a look at the charts and there are a few pairs that I’ve put on my Watchlist: AUDCAD, AUDNZD for longs and GBPCHF for a short.

No orders placed, I’m just watching these three to see if we’ll get a nice CBL entry in the direction of the trend.

None of these are very tempting but I’d say AUDCAD looks the best.

We will see what the week brings. :slight_smile: