No trades were taken today even though GBPCHF could have been entered as a short. I didn’t quite like the look of the chart with traffic so I passed on it.
Looking over the charts tonight I see some pairs that may become interesting if they decide to retrace a bit such as EURCAD and GBPCAD. Looking at the bigger picture GBPUSD could possibly become a long setup.
Keep watching, I may have changed my approach a bit but the part about being picky with setups remains.
I placed a pending order for a long AUDCAD trade that triggered a little while later. Currently about 15 pips plus so not time for BE yet.
Details should be available on the myfxbook page: O990l6mh’s Profile | Myfxbook.
After reviewing tonight’s charts the watchlist contains: GBPCAD, EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.
EURUSD is doubtful but the pattern of HH HL is still intact and it has retraced quite a bit.
The other three are also retracing against the trend and we will see what happens.
Yes Luke hrm, Matt, join me and we shall rule the galaxy as Lehman and brother LOL!
Sorry, tired and silly! 
Quick update.
SL moved to BE on AUDCAD
Well, stopped out again at BE. On to the next trade.
Speaking of the next trade, I can’t help but notice that I missed a beatiful 2H CBL short on USDCAD. I’m noticing that I tend to relax slightly when I’m already in a trade and the search for more trades slackens a bit. This is something I have to address.
Due to margin rules I’ve also realized that a total risk of 40% of the Kelly account is very much bordering on what’s possible.
As a result I’ve decided to change the risk percentages on both demos to 1.5% and 15% with a max risk of 3%/30%.
I’m changing both because it makes the math easy for me when calculating position sizes.
Updated version of the 4H Demo Trading Plan due in a few minutes.
Rules and Goals:
[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve three consecutive profitable months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Netdania.com ChartStation will be used for all charting[/li][li] Trading will be performed with Oanda demo accounts[/li][li] Trades will be placed using Oanda FXGame and Oanda FXGame for Android[/li][/ol]
[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li][li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li][ol]
[li] The risk per trade will always be 1.5%[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 3%[/li][/ol]
[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 10x the normal risk, that is, 15%[/li][ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 30%[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL[/li][ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at 1R or shortly before as circumstances allow[/li][/ol]
[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li][ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]
[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li][ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]
[li] Records:[/li][ol]
[li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]
[li] During the weekend a detailed analysis is performed where pairs of interest are noted and added to the four pairs that will be the basic pairs of the Watchlist. These four pairs are: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD.[/li][li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li][ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]
[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li][ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li][LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]
[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]
[li]Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]
Hmm, no analysis tonight. Sorry about that, sometimes life gets in the way of even the best laid plans huh.
Totally beat tonight after swimming and some other stuff. Swimming is really good exercise!
Anyway, no charts tonight. This won’t be acceptable in the future but for now…
I see some really good trades that I didn’t take and the best part is that those trades were pairs on my watchlist! Unhappy as I am to have missed them and instead picked two BE ones, I’m very pleased to see that my approach seems to really hold water.
Enough ego stroking for tonight. Promising a thorough weekend analysis and better focus next week.
I changed the section marked in red as I realized that keeping a basic set of four pairs was not helpful but rather created distraction. The most efficient way to operate seems to be to pick out a few pairs every night to watch the next day for potential trades. These pairs may very well change every night as the markets move.
Rules and Goals:
[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve three consecutive profitable months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Netdania.com ChartStation will be used for all charting[/li][li] Trading will be performed with Oanda demo accounts[/li][li] Trades will be placed using Oanda FXGame and Oanda FXGame for Android[/li][/ol]
[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li][li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li][ol]
[li] The risk per trade will always be 1.5%[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 3%[/li][/ol]
[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 10x the normal risk, that is, 15%[/li][ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 30%[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL[/li][ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at 1R or shortly before as circumstances allow[/li][/ol]
[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li][ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]
[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li][ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]
[li] Records:[/li][ol]
[li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]
[li] During the weekend as well as every evening a detailed analysis is performed where pairs of interest are noted and placed on the Active Watchlist. Pairs that may soon print interesting setups are placed on the Potential Watchlist. [/li]
[li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li][ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]
[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li][ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li][LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]
[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]
[li]Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]
This weekend’s analysis has given me four pairs to keep an eye on for potential trades tomorrow.
I’ll be watching for long CBLs on CADCHF, GBPUSD and GOLD. USDCHF will be watched for a short CBL.
All of them depend on them retracing just right and generally behaving.
If Gold wants to trigger I’ll be facing a bit of trouble as I’m using the BP position size calc and it doesn’t have that pair. In fact it doesn’t have that many pairs at all. I’ve made a suggestion to the staff to expand the list of pairs it can handle.
On the Potential Watchlist I’m placing a few pairs, NZDJPY and NZDUSD among these. If they retrace a bit over the coming days they may form excellent long opportunities later. We shall see.
As usual I’ll be keeping the powder dry until something really pretty walks into the crosshairs.
I entered GBPUSD long today.
I’m unhappy with myself because I screwed up the SL order and placed it at 1.5430 instead of 1.5340 :mad:. It seems it might be more than I can handle to trade two accounts simultaneously. I’m thinking of just trading the Kelly account and when all said and done I’ll use the trade records to calculate what the normal account would have been like. Not sure yet but it’ll yield the same info, just less stress for me.
As a result the standard account got a SL hit that shouldn’t have and I’ve reset it and replaced the order, correct this time. If it triggers all good, if not then the records won’t be comparable. We’ll see what happens.
I see surprising events have occurred. Tymen is banned. Not sure what that is all about but I’m sure we’ll find out.
Anyway, tonight’s charts.
Active watchlist: CADCHF, EURCAD, GBPUSD
Potential watchlist: AUDJPY, NZDJPY
As mentioned in the last post I’m in a GBPUSD long although I managed to perform a bit of Nick Leeson in my order input.
I’m looking at a potential long on CADCHF and a potential short on EURCAD.
We will see what tomorrow brings. I’ve made my decision regarding the two accounts. If GBPUSD triggers again on the standard account I’ll keep trading both accounts, if not I’ll just trade the Kelly account and then use the trade records to create the other account’s results.
Updating myfxbook in a few minutes.
Well, I placed a short trade on EURCAD today. I must say I was quite pleased with the setup and therefor was surprised to see the trade turn and run like Carl Lewis for my SL. I’m sure there was some piece of news or other behind that explosive move but I haven’t checked it. I ignore news and expect it to even out in the long run, today it worked against me, next time it’ll work for me instead.
So, EURCAD loss and GBPUSD came back from the brink of death and is now moving well.
I’ll be considering moving the SL on GBPUSD to BE soon, maybe tonight.
When you think you’ve learned more or less everything, that’s when you need a reality check…
As is well known to any poor sod who wasted his or her precious time reading this thread :D, I’ve focused on trading a method inspired mainly by J16 and Pring material. All that time I was convinced that I was on the right track, or should I say, the best track.
Thanks to several things I’m now changing that view. For this I thank Graviton and Darryl Guppy along with some other sources. The longer I’m doing this, the more I’m discovering that trading is simple but not easy.
There is no need to search for the picture perfect pin bar. Why? Because it will look like something the cat dragged in on a different time zone chart. This is the great drawback of looking at bar/candlestick formations.
Instead, look at something that every trader everywhere can see: the trend of price through higher highs and higher lows or vice versa. And guess what? When price is trending and seems to be about to make a lower high or a higher low - that’s when you want to look for a trigger to join in the trend direction. Why? Simply because the probability says that the trend is more likely to continue than to reverse or go sideways.
I use the CBL concept to enter into trends when retracements turn. I’m pausing my live trading until I have three consecutive profitable months on demo.
Remember the AUDCAD long that I was stopped out from at BE? Guess where that would have been now if I hadn’t moved my SL to BE?
I never quite felt like Eureka! before with the J16/Pring approach but everywhere I look now on a chart it’s clear to me which direction price is more likely to head. It’s such a simple approach - just identify the high/low trend pattern and seek a good entry. Even I can understand that. 
Fiddling about with my phone to place orders works but I may get myself one of those netbook thingies or something like it if I take this approach live. We’ll see, first things first!
It says at 1R or just before as time allows. The [I]right[/I] time however… well I’m open for advice. 
OK, quick before nap time:
For tomorrow:
Active watchlist:
CADCHF
EURCAD (yes, again)
EURNZD
Potential watchlist:
CADJPY
EURAUD
EURUSD
GBPCAD
Thinking of removing the potential watchlist, not sure it’s useful. Maybe more stress/distraction than reward.
Today, EURCAD short loss
GBPUSD long still open and currently in profit.
Updating myfxbook and logging off.
Well, the big news of the day of course is the BoJ intervention. Buying yen today would have been a special form of financial harakiri.
As for me, nothing on the watchlist triggered today but the nice piece of news is that GBPUSD has behaved well today and as a result I’ve now moved to BE.
Had a look at tonight’s charts.
Not much change from yesterday really:
Active Watch:
CADCHF
EURCAD
EURNZD
GBPCAD
Potential Watch:
GBPAUD
I’m beat after swimming for the second time this week. Really good addition to the usual gym workout. Gonna sleep like a baby tonight.
Anyway, I’ve decided to remove the Potential Watchlist and just rename the Active Watchlist. The new name… will be: Watchlist.
Didn’t see that coming huh
Although I haven’t been a trading superstar I can’t help but to feel quite pleased when I look at the charts and see that almost all the pairs I’ve been watching have behaved as I thought probable.
This is aof course partly misleading since if the markets where in a ranging phase or even a reversal phase things would not have looked so good. I guess what I’m trying to say is that this approach works better than anything else I’ve seen or tried.
Funny how it rather much resembles the approach that Tess & co use over at the ATT threads…
What I’m noticing is of course that the time issue will have to be further planned for. If I’m going to do this live later I need to plan my days more firmly with fixed times during the day when I check the charts.
Tonight yielded a large Watchlist:
EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
NZDUSD
USDCHF
I’m not telling which direction I’m thinking for the various pairs - that much should be obvious by now.
Friday tomorrow so I’m not sure I’m going to place any orders, they’ll have to look very inviting.
GBPUSD is still behaving well and I may move the SL up ever so slightly. I’m hoping and betting on a break through 1.5650 so I’m going to stay in the trade and risk being stopped out close to BE.