All are invited to this thread who would be trading E/U (or any other pair) and post their ideas, trades etc. I will be using this thread to post my own trades and keep track as a sort of journal for future reference. I expect most of my trades to be EUR/USD. but once in a while I do trade G/U, G/J, and Yen.
Brief background-
I am a 6 month old start up-started shop in 09/2008. Used to trade USD/JPY. Moved over to EUR/USD as the most active pair. Currently trading part time and aiming for 200-300 pips a month.
For Sunday (I think it may come on Monday)- I am waiting for the upturn to reverse. IMO, the price will touch 1.2900 when the trading opens tomorrow. We may go as high as 1.3092 (small probability??)-we are on an uptrend on the H1 and the RSI is pretty bullish-but I am nervous to long at these levels. I have these two conditions for a Sunday/Monday morning trade:
I go short @ 1.2920-1.2928. S/L at 1.3100.
Alternatively, if the price go down from here without breaking 1.2900, I think a 1.2735-1.2750 is a good range to go short.
No trades if the price consolidates between 1.2775-1.2850.
Ok, yeah see I am not denying the high it may reach… thats why the stop (which you know I dont use much :))I would not think of shorts at 1.28 levels if Europe was not in an equal if not worse mess…
Let us see. Weekly and Daily favor the short,monthly says that the present downturn is just an aberration in journey upwards.
Nice work, If you were watching I am sure you were worried whenn the price approached 2800, but at the end it bounced up to your T/P.
For me, I was playing both, I had a short open with T/P at 2800, so it did not come in until overnight. I also had a long to the 2880, sure I lost out on 15 pips, but better to have some then none at all…
I just came back from the 9-5 gig, and was pleasantly greeted with 70 pips on the UJ trade I entered before leaving to work (bought at 93.60, closed at 94.3)
Presently just staring at my favorite pair-and it seems static on around 1.2715 zone
Honestly I have no idea where it is headed from here. It is really confusing.
Therefore per one of my tenets, I am staying out of the trade currently.
But I tend to think it may go down to 1.2665 (I guess kind of a 2nd major support after 1.2715 area). When it goes down there (1.2665), I will buy one lot at t/p 50 pips (1.2715) and no s/l. If it breaks 1.2600 area it may try and touch 1.25 also but for me 1.2665 is a good buy price therefore no stop loss (note that only one lot)
I am now going to spend some more time looking at some other favs, and see if I can make a good probability trade.
Yes I came within inches of my s/l and in the same manner took my t/p by a cinch. The way I come up with 1.2895 is that I calculate the probable extreme end of the move(1.2930 in this case) and then set my t/p either equal to 60 % of that move (about 1.2905 in this case) or 5 pips less the next price ending in a 00 or 50, whichever is lesser (usually)-that is why the t/p at odd numbers like 1.2895
But I was surprised it did not break 1.2915 again last night
I like the hedge idea as a good risk mitigation idea. Man, I could get creative with that!!!
uj-Yes, I am looking at UJ to do a 98.5 later tonight/tomorrow- but I am not yet bidding-I will wait and see if it retraces at 97-97.20,if not then no trade.
eu-It most probably will, that is why wait till the retrace to 1.2665. As the daily/hrly trend is down.so no trade at moment.
regret-You know what I missed one real good trade (E/J,which I do once in a blue moon)-all my charts were telling me it goes up but I did not bid (only reason being the very vast swings it takes, leading to huge DDs)
