This chart shows the positions Myfxbook members have on EURUSD. As you can see, the majority is nearly always wrong: They hold long positions when market is falling, and switch to short when it rises.
It makes sense though: the industrial forex players who make the most money arent on myfxbook - the money flows from small myfxbookers to the big players, which explains the graph above…
Of course profit-taking and long-term trading must affect this, but it still seems to give pretty good advice.
Has anyone tried simply betting against the community preference, no matter what the price does?
Interesting that no one has said anything about this. It is indeed a topic that some people have thought about it before, but to my knowledge no one has ever done it. I think it’s something that would be quite difficult to backtest, but has some merit and would out perform most traders on this forum. I believe Oanda and FF also have metrics to show net positions of traders, it would be interesting to see maybe a system that just uses a tally between the three to trade. I may consider doing this in a trade journal if you don’t
The red and green areas are the total value of lots traded at the moment. It seems that majority of myfxbook use very short-term counter-trend strategy and so they fail in (even slightly) trending market…
Understanding hurd trading is by far the key to profiting in this market. I simple watch ff’s traders order flow, and i can assure you that if you wait for accumulation on the lower tf and go against the hurd, you will be able to at least get enough pips to hit the next daily pivot.
