This is just going to be my little trading journal. I keep a written one in a notebook, but for me at least, the more I write things down the more I learn from them.
So, this is going to be my trading journal trading harmonic patterns. Whether anyone follows this or not is fine, ultimately it is for me to learn from.
So for now I am trading on a demo account, but I am treating that demo account as if it is a very small real account. Making $20 trades at the moment and that is it. These won’t be huge losses, nor will they be huge gains. For me it’s all about making more money than I lose. That means small, tight stop losses so when I do lose it’s small. High reward, low risk trades…hopefully.
First trade to put in my journal was made last night.
15 minute GBP/JPY saw a Bearish Bat pattern. Trade opened at 170.41. I didn’t write down my stop loss for some reason, but I would imagine it was around 170.5. I set my TP for 170.10 and it hit about 1 hour after opening the trade.
Did two small trades today before I decided to do this journal. From here on out, all my trades will have my stop loss and TP. I am really trying to stick to a TP that is in the .382 or .618 range for now and I am only trading single lots. I might change that if I do start seeing good things happen, but these next two trades are TINY!!!
5 minute chart USD/JPY Bearish Gartley. Trade opened at 101.92 and it just sat there for nearly two hours before it hit my TP at 101.88 for a profit of $.39
5 minute chart USD/CHF Bearish Bat. Trade opened at .8920 and it hit my tiny TP minutes later at .8918 for a minuscule profit of $.22!!
So far, I think I need to move off the small charts as my TP is just netting me tiny profits. But, I am demoing and feeling a little impatient to wait for larger patterns to develop on the higher time frames. But I am watching a couple that may develop on 1hr charts. We shall see.
You will find that moving off the short TF charts will help but a lot of that ts the moves are much more regular. Also if you have TPs of 4 pips you will find you get destroyed by transaction costs unless your win rate is epic. Good luck.
yeah, that is my concern as well. Fairly certain I didn’t cover my fees on the USD/CHF trade and probably lost half my profit on the USD/JPY trade to fees.
Anyway its just that value for avg. loss and win should take into account slippage and the transaction cost (spread and/or commission). When you exit on a loss its normally on a market order which has slippage compared with a limit exit for your TP. Also when your transaction costs are a quarter of the TP level then the effect it has on your P(win) to be profitable is significantly increased. Its worth knocking up a speadsheet and seeing the effects.
Last one on the 5 minutes charts before I move up to longer time frames. I saw this and had to test it again.
5 minute AUD/USD Bullish Gartley - opened trade at .9024 and just under 1 hour hit my TP at .9031 for a profit of $.70
Nearly got stopped out on this purely from having my stop loss a bit close to my PRZ as one candle tested down…was literally 1 pip from being stopped out.
Looking at longer time frames now and have a couple of setups that will probably get traded today.
Yesterday though I did have a trade listed below…
1 Hr chart - USD/CAD - 1.13 bounce was what I was looking for.
Bought at 1.0956 and was stopped out 6 hours later at 1.9042 for a loss of -£1.10. I had set a TP at the .382 retracement and it never came close. I was up almost 10% at one point but wanted to stick with my initial thoughts on the trade. I should have waited for a proper pattern instead of trying a bounce off a fib level.
Said I was looking at longer time frames, but I saw a great pattern on a 15 minute chart.
15 min GBP/USD - Bullish Extreme Harmonic Wave - Bought at 12:20 @1.6643. Set a stop loss 10 pip lower and a TP at the .382 retracement. Hit my TP at 13:45 @1.6677 for a profit of £3.40
To be honest with this, I really wish I was trading multiple lots as I could have taken this profit and let another lot run because it doesn’t look done at all. I was planning on watching it and maybe moving my TP up as it approached, but it spike up to it. In hindsight, this is probably a good thing anyways as I let my rules take care of it instead of messing about.
This is a setup I have been watching for over a day now. Right now it’s heading the wrong direction to complete, but it hasn’t gone to much yet and there is still time. I will continue watching it.
This would be an impulse wave pattern if it can get into the grey area to then go short.
I have noticed an interesting development on this EUR/GBP pairing.
Within the bearish high wave is a bullish Bat developing. This is ideal as if the Bat hits the PRZ it could bounce all the way to the High Wave PRZ and then you could ride this up and then ride it again back down.
I did all my bat measurements on a different chart, but transferred over the PRZ and pattern to this chart so we can see both PRZ’s.
Watched a lot of setups today. Some broke down before they established (GBP/USD being one of those) and some are just floating around. My EUR/GBP is approaching the PRZ of the Impulse Wave so I will continue watching that.
I did get to trade the USD/JPY harmonic wave though today. Because the market is closing soon, I took my profits earlier than I wanted, but I will be watching this again as if it continues down it will setup a 5-0 pattern. I have attached a chart of the setup.
1 HR USD/JPY Bearish Impulse Wave. Bought at 1830 GMT @102.72 and sold at 1941 GMT @102.56 for a profit of $3.12 (15.60%).
1HR EUR/USD Bearish Bat - Open at 10:30GMT @1.3758 closed at TP at 11:20GMT @1.3744 for a gain of $1.40 7%
Again, wish I was trading multiple lots as I would have let one run. Set my TP at the .382 retracement.
I am not trading multiple lots as I am treating this as if it’s a real account that I am going to open with only $200 and I am not going to risk more than $20 at a time until the account gets to $400.
