This is a “tough read” but well worth it in my opinion:
http://saham.ws/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Solid-Ground.pdf
Russell Napier makes a thorough analysis of international sovereign recycling of surpluses in U.S. Treasury Bonds, and concludes that a major selloff in both stocks and treasury bonds is likely. The dollar will decline sharply.
I personally suspect that he will be right.
He expects capital controls and so advises getting money offshore into Singapore Dollars now before capital controls are imposed. (Yes, of course do it legally and report it as required).
“This analyst has long been a fan as the Singapore dollar as the best way to eke out reasonable
returns (in developed-world currency terms), while maintaining maximum
flexibility. The powerful dynamic of twin surpluses (implying artificial suppression of the exchange rate) is likely to result in a rise in the exchange rate relative to other jurisdictions that are not similarly blessed. If the country also has a rock-solid commercial banking system, as Switzerland did through the 1970s, then the prospect of the government having to print money to prevent a financial collapse should also be negligible.”
"An interesting feature of capital controls is that jail awaits those who breach them on exit, but a knighthood beckons for those who volunteer to repatriate.
There is of course a time when such repatriation will make immense investment sense - when valuations have reached rock bottom. Investors in Singapore dollars should see strong nominal and possibly real gains relative to developed-world exchange rates. More importantly, they will avoid the
conscription of their capital to shore up public finances and will maintain the flexibility of capital that the modern investor takes for granted, but which will soon be seen as a luxury of a past age."