Negative Risk aka in Profit?

Beginner Questions
1 

double Total_Current_Risk()
{

    double res = 0;
    for (int i = 0; i < OrdersTotal(); i++)
    {
        if (OrderSelect(i, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES) && OrderStopLoss() != 0)
        {
            double m_point = MarketInfo(OrderSymbol(), MODE_POINT);
            double m_lotstep = MarketInfo(OrderSymbol(), MODE_LOTSTEP);
            double m_TickValue = MarketInfo(OrderSymbol(), MODE_TICKVALUE);
            double m_sl = 0;
            if (OrderType() == OP_BUY || OrderType() == OP_BUYLIMIT || OrderType() == OP_BUYSTOP)
            {
                m_sl = (OrderOpenPrice() - OrderStopLoss()) / m_point;
            }
            else
            {
                m_sl = (OrderStopLoss() - OrderOpenPrice()) / m_point;
            }
            res += NormalizeDouble((OrderLots() * (m_sl * m_TickValue)) + OrderCommission() + OrderSwap(), 2);
        }
    }
    Print("Account Balance: ", AccountBalance(), " -- Total Current Risk (with swap and commission): ", res, " -- Net Balance: ", AccountBalance() - res);
    return res;
}

void OnTick()

Account Balance 500 USD
let say i buy instrument at 100 USD
stop loss 90
risk 100 - 90 = -10 USD

instrument goes up in my favor,
current price 120
open active trade is in profit,
trailing stop loss moved to 110

will Total_Current_Risk() return 100-110 = -10 ?

Net Balance: ", AccountBalance() - res

500 - -10 = 510 USD?

2

Correct on the assumption.

You’ll get stopped out at -10 pips 66.6% of the time, get to +20 pips 33.3% of the time. Half the time you’re in profit (16.7%) you’ll hit another +10 pips (30 pips total), half the time (16.7%) you’ll go back to +10 pips on the trade. Half that winning trade (8.33%) will go to another +10 pips (40pips). Half the time (8.33%) you’ll get stopped out at -10 (+20pips total) and so on until the variance is greater than the standard deviation of probabilities.

Run those scenarios through. To confirm. Be aware of size of spread/stop loss amount. If spread is 1 pip and SL is 10, a 9 pip stop loss throws a large negative EV on the trade.

1 Like
3

good note on spread, did not think of it
but in general risk can go negative aka good locked in profit with trailing stop loss

4

You may have to increase distances to minimize negative EV due to spread.

Same Expected Value with trailing stop or fixed stop/tp. Trailing stop won’t increase profitability.

5 Likes
5

This is absolutely definite. :slight_smile:

3 Likes
6

you are missing a point, it is about MM and locked-in floating profits

7

@EmeraldEyes and @TheodoreThring are doubtless well aware of that. It may be you who’s missing the point, here, my friend.

This (and 100 other similar posts) might help you:

2 Likes
8

you are not my friend