In terms of investing in Forex- I liken any trading ideas to your investment in the House market- If upon analysis and investigation you see a real opportunity to make money, you invested. Could the housing market tanked the day after your purchase, SURE, but the odds were in your favor. When I trade, Before even looking at a chart, I have the pairs and direction for an investment. Not only that, I could explain the fundamental reasons behind it. Thats where I’ve felt I’ve gained an edge. With that, I look at charts for a favorable entry. My expectation is I will profit.
Definitely human and make mistakes, but consistent in the fact if I work my plan I will be profitable at the end of the month/Quarter.
Welcome Cris and congrats on the success! When you take a trade what is your average time holding a trade? I am assuming that it is in the months or years range since you are using the word “invest”. What fundamentals are you basing your trades on? I am guessing you are looking at things like rates, inflation, economic strength, etc?
Aloha Krugman. Thanks for the congrats. Investing only means expending money with the expectation of achieving a profit. That can be short, mid, long term. My trades are shorter term, 1-5 days, although most of my profitable investments tend to hit relatively quickly. I do a weekly roadmap on Sundays to analyze all data for the week, including institutional positioning. I form Biases on Strong and Weak Pairs. I then use data releases to confirm any investment ideas, acting as a catalyst. Two Rules I really like and use: 1. Could I explain my reasons to invest millions of dollars of other peoples money. 2. If I looked at the move from the opposite viewpoint, are there reasons to invest that way… if it’s yes, than NO GO.
I always find peoples angles on trading semantics interesting. Although I agree that all speculating/trading is investing, not all investing is speculating/trading. That being said you are doing all of the above: investing, speculating and trading, especially if you are holding trades for 1-5 days. But here we are back to semantics again
I have 1 rule, If I make a trade and I lose money my wife will kill me. So will this trade be the death of me, if yes, then it is a no go. LOL
Not so sure on EURGBP… Pound although retail sales was a miss, it was there best quarter in some time. Also, August rate increase is looking more viable. EUR is long term becoming more bullish but is being impacted by tariff fears. Personally I wouldn’t be in this pair, at this time.
Nope 2008 “they” were starting to talk about “Regulating” HMOs ! - Time was past and memories of “Fair Rent Act” - killing the private rental market stone dead (UK) for many decades…- Anyway 2008 was entirey foreseeable as a very difficult time and people like Martin Weiss and Bob Prechter had put up some very convincing arguments that a great deflationary crash was coming,. Not time to be taking on debt at all !
[ Edit - In fact their analysis was good - but their assessments of the “results” “naive” - They forecast that "Gvernments woul be forced to “Let the banks go bust” - But my expectation was that they would just let inflation rip - to nullify the debt ! I was wrong - but “they” could not “Let the banks go” without destroying confidence in “Fake money” entirely !
So what “they did” was to “Bale out” the banks ! - BUT “they” hadn’t got the money ! - so where did "they " get it from ? Why “they” borrowed it of course
But where did “they” borrow it from ? - Why the BAnks of course ! and WE are paying the interest !
]
[Edit 2 - That’s why “Interest Rates” are low ! - if “They” let them rise, the interest on the Huge National Debts of the Govts of the “West” will cripple every working soul in the western world ! - It’s ok to “Drop hints” to raise your currency a bit - but woe betide any Western Govt - (or it’s voters ) who actually do it ! ]
In fact - I’d be panicking if I had a rental portfolio now ! - The Parasites have the rental sector clearly in view - and will "Regulate it and demand “Registration” until they kill the host ! (Again) - However, when the panic hits the “Pyramid landlords” who cannot pay their mortgages and the auctions start distress selling the repos - There shoud be some real bargains for "first timers with access to cash and some energy and a bent for DIY !
Now you see that’s what I mean by “Fundamentals” ! not "what did Draghi say yesterday ? "
2008 or thereabouts Warren Buffett was buying Trailer Parks ! - I’ve not heard anything to say he has sold them !
How it started was when I was around 15 I bought a book from the local bookstore called “How to make money in stocks”. I had no idea what I was buying I just knew I wanted to learn more about the stock market. It turns out the book was all about how to identify and trade price patterns. That laid the foundation early on and I continued to study and trade price patterns only. Today, I dont use any technical indicators or fundamentals, just price.
I like the fact you found something that worked for you , and you studied and practiced to really develop your approach. Nice Krugman. I’m friends with several traders and it’s funny how each individual needs a slightly different approach to suit their personality. Ex: a friend of mine trade Breakouts successfully, but doesn’t like the way I approach the markets. Vise versa for me.
