The New Zealand dollar is not the Australian dollar. This may seem like an obvious observation; but you wouldn’t think so when comparing the price action between the two currencies. The reason for the Aussie’s strength is clear: the RBA has already initiated a hawkish policy stance and economic data is fully supporting a progressive economic recovery. Yet, the kiwi doesn’t share these fundamental benefits.
New Zealand Dollar Rally Surviving on Borrowed Time and Strength
Fundamental Outlook for New Zealand Dollar: Bearish
- A surprise rate hike from the RBA pulls forward speculator’s expectations for the RBNZ’s timeline
- Risk appetite leads the kiwiand all its high-yield counterparts higher
- Is the NZDUSD advance growing technically winded?
The New Zealand dollar is not the Australian dollar. This may seem like an obvious observation; but you wouldn’t think so when comparing the price action between the two currencies. The reason for the Aussie’s strength is clear: the RBA has already initiated a hawkish policy stance and economic data is fully supporting a progressive economic recovery. Yet, the kiwi doesn’t share these fundamental benefits. The New Zealand recession is still quite prominent, there is now a more appealing investment currency among the majors and RBNZ Governor Bollard has explicitly expressed his intentions to keep his nation’s benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.50 percent until “late” next year. These are glaring discrepancies and they will not hold out forever.
Looking out over the coming week, the currency’s relationship to its Australian counterpart (and more importantly risk appetite) will be tested with a notable round of economic data. A critical step towards putting interest rates back on that much-sought-after hawkish policy is establishing a true economic recovery. Data has so far shown a tepid recovery; and we will look for heat with the economic indicators on the docket. Retail sales, business activity and housing sales will offer a relatively complete picture of economic activity. Of the three, the retail spending figure holds the greatest potential for volatility. However, the sales data is the most promising indicator for the week. The third quarter Consumer Prices data will provide Governor Bollard a clear gauge for establishing the need for restrictive monetary policy. Still trying to support an economic recovery; the central banker will have to see a threat of inflation before his is prompted to rate hikes (and most likely preemptive ones at that). It is true that he has said he would hold the benchmark well into next year; but he could easily renege on that vow; and his propensity for aggressive policy shifts is renowned. However, the issue here too is that he does not want to further encourage his currency to appreciate.
In the meantime though, the direction and momentum of any genuine trend for the kiwi will lie with risk appetite. It has been said that a rising tide floats all boats; and the New Zealand currency is certainly riding the surf. In fact, all commodity dollars have enjoyed the advance in risk appetite (even the Canadian dollar which has neither no real return to speak of nor a particularly hawkish future ahead of it). For the kiwi, demand for yield finds a significant return with the nation’s high benchmark; but there is also the sentiment factor. For those currencies considered fundamentally depressed (like the British pound), a bullish outlook for the global economy and markets offers a far greater reward. Taking stock of direction in sentiment, the proxy for sentiment (equities) is on the cusp of new yearly highs. A breakout or reversal can develop; but there are no clear catalysts offering to resolve the standoff. This in itself is an important observation; because without an engine to keep risk appetite on a rise, the currently high levels of optimism will eventually appear extreme and will encourage a retracement. - JK
Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Questions? Comments? Send them to JOhn at <[email protected]>.