Newb price question

I am very bearish in my trades. If I see a pair breaking the 2nd deviation in 1 Day time frame over 5 years I sell short. This has worked very well for me. My question is, who is still buying when price is so high. It’s obviously nearing exhaustion. Why would anyone continue to buy when a pair has broken 2nd std dev over 5 year, 1 day time frame?



Can you provide a chart / example or two?

Look at the current NZD/USD


NZD/USD, 1 Day/5 Year, Who is doing the buying pushing past 2.5 Std Dev (Thick Red Line)?

Just because price reaches the “thick red line” doesn’t mean that the indicator is telling you where the market will move next. Think about it— if it was that easy, wouldn’t we all be driving around in $100k cars?

Here’s what I can tell you with 100% certainty about your strategy.
(1) When the “2.5 Std Dev” is tested, the market will reverse because the instrument is overbought.
(2) When the “2.5 Std Dev” is tested, the market will continue because the instrument has momentum.

Flip a coin and pick one.
This is not a strategy w/ an edge. This is taking a position w/ a 50/50 shot of being profitable.

This question will be the death of your strategy.
You cannot think about trading like this.

You need to review your forex charts using 1 Day for 5 years and see how many 2.5 std dev breaks are not profitable.

Yeah- they’re not profitable until they are. If that’s your strategy and it’s making you money, then who cares what anyone else says.

To me, the question just seemed like you’re chasing/hoping/wanting a “golden egg” strategy and no markets work that way. A strategy can work until it doesnt.

Here is today’s example of NZD/USD that made $$$

You need to learn to read charts properly before you take big steps in the market. Try to analyse everything properly before you do anything.

It depends upon your strategy also, whether you are a day trader or a scalper? Learn more about charts reading and it will good if you can do technical analysis also.

Making money should not be your only aim. You must be ready to learn at every step. There will be losses and profits both. Losses should not dishearten you and profits should not get over your head. Otherwise, it won’t take much time to be on the losing end.