Newb price question

I am very bearish in my trades. If I see a pair breaking the 2nd deviation in 1 Day time frame over 5 years I sell short. This has worked very well for me. My question is, who is still buying when price is so high. It’s obviously nearing exhaustion. Why would anyone continue to buy when a pair has broken 2nd std dev over 5 year, 1 day time frame?



Can you provide a chart / example or two?

Look at the current NZD/USD


NZD/USD, 1 Day/5 Year, Who is doing the buying pushing past 2.5 Std Dev (Thick Red Line)?

Just because price reaches the “thick red line” doesn’t mean that the indicator is telling you where the market will move next. Think about it— if it was that easy, wouldn’t we all be driving around in $100k cars?

Here’s what I can tell you with 100% certainty about your strategy.
(1) When the “2.5 Std Dev” is tested, the market will reverse because the instrument is overbought.
(2) When the “2.5 Std Dev” is tested, the market will continue because the instrument has momentum.

Flip a coin and pick one.
This is not a strategy w/ an edge. This is taking a position w/ a 50/50 shot of being profitable.

This question will be the death of your strategy.
You cannot think about trading like this.

You need to review your forex charts using 1 Day for 5 years and see how many 2.5 std dev breaks are not profitable.

Yeah- they’re not profitable until they are. If that’s your strategy and it’s making you money, then who cares what anyone else says.

To me, the question just seemed like you’re chasing/hoping/wanting a “golden egg” strategy and no markets work that way. A strategy can work until it doesnt.

Here is today’s example of NZD/USD that made $$$

You need to learn to read charts properly before you take big steps in the market. Try to analyse everything properly before you do anything.

It depends upon your strategy also, whether you are a day trader or a scalper? Learn more about charts reading and it will good if you can do technical analysis also.

Making money should not be your only aim. You must be ready to learn at every step. There will be losses and profits both. Losses should not dishearten you and profits should not get over your head. Otherwise, it won’t take much time to be on the losing end.

maybe it’s easier to invest in ea or etf? so the proffesional could trade

I will be the first to experience making money. It applies to any job. From my experience, when I was in new trading, I learned by watching various online videos, articles, Forex related books. That education has helped me to become experienced.

What currency are you currently doing?

You’re quite right, analyzing is the mandatory thing in trading as well as other fundamental rules such as money and risk managements and stuff like that. Traders should analyze every time I think. To my mind the most effective way of analyzing is the analyze of won deals because it can helps you to understand how to trade the next time, you have to see what did lead you to winning of the position. The analyzing of losses isn’t effective mainly because it won’t lead you to anything. Only if you mke a serious mistake you have to go on demo account and analyze what actions did make you to come to loss.

Yeah, such educational content should be the first step for every trader who wants to dive into trading activity. Videos/podcasts/articles, everyting will help you during this educational period.
I personally think that there is no end in educational process as it relates to trading because you have to find something new out every day when you trade. New indicators/strategies/patterns/figures/oscillators and all stuff like that/ There are lots of forums (like this one) in the internet where people share their strategies and new indicators which have been already tested successfully. Traders only have to never give up.