News and its Effect

So, I’ve noticed quite often the price moves a bit in the direction that the news items move the price before the news actually is announced, so I wonder if the news is leaked or if some people have insider information and this can be used to predict moves based on news?

Also I notice that quite often the price moves back to roughly where it was before the news, so some news is only very short term in its effect on the price, sometimes it’s long lived, are there different types of news that affect the price differently and can that be used for trading?

Anyone trade news reliably, what’s your strategy?

Buy the rumour sell the news.

This subject is covered in the school!

1 Like

Those are illiquid times in the market, very wide spreads. You’ll pay more to transact than the profit target. Historical price charts don’t show spreads. Trading during risk events will always have retail traders at a large disadvantage.

5 Likes

Nope.

I don’t believe any retail trader does, in the long run. Not at all.

People say they do (on Youtube, etc.) but it turns out that their income’s really from marketing on Youtube etc., not from trading. As so often!

Read every sentence of Ryan’s post just above, David - it tells you what you need to know! :slight_smile:

Regulators and big prop-firms always say that retail traders trying to trade the news is the commonest cause of account-loss.

It’s basically trading without a stop-loss (because “news” is the one time that your broker can’t honour your stop-loss, and it says somewhere in their small-print that they might not, but nobody reads it all!).

People think they can do it, and say so on forums. Everything goes nicely for them the first four, five, six times they try. Then BANG - the seventh time; margin call, no funds, out of business.

Don’t even think about it. :wink:

3 Likes

Yes, but the main point to appreciate is that you can get the overall direction right 80% of the time and stll lose money (from spikes in both directions) overall. It’s very deceptive!

3 Likes

The important thing to remember when trading “the news” (I assume you’re speaking of things such as NFP) is that it’s usually priced in.

The market only really ever moves big and fast on news is when it’s an unexpected result. Such as today’s China USA negotiations.

By before, always remember the big players pay for the information and get it maybe a second faster than you.

It doesn’t seem much but 1 second is a lifetime in the markets.

2 Likes