-GMT 12:30 USA Nonfarm Payroll (Sep) EST 100k PREVIOUS -4k
-GMT 12:30 USA Unemployment Rate (Sep) EST 4.7% PREVIOUS 4.6%
-GMT 12:30 USA Avg Hrly Earnin (Sep) EST 0.3% PREVIOUS 0.3%
-GMT 12:30 USA Work Week (Sep) EST 33.8hrs PREVIOUS 33.8hrs
In the US, the employment report, also known as the labor report, is regarded as the most important among all economic indicators. The report provides the first comprehensive look at the economy, covering nine economic categories. Here are the three main components of the report:
Payroll Employment: Measures the change in number of workers in a given month and measures the number of jobs in more than 500 industries (ex-�farming) in all states and 255 metropolitan areas. The employment estimates are based on a survey of larger businesses and counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation’s business and government establishments. This release is the most closely watched indicator because of its timeliness, accuracy and its comprehensiveness. It is important to compare this figure to a monthly moving
average (6 or 9 months) to capture a true perspective of the trend in labor market strength. Equally important are the frequent revisions for the prior months, which are often significant.
Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the civilian labor force actively looking for employment but unable to find jobs. Although it is a highly proclaimed figure (due to simplicity of the number and its political implications), the unemployment rate gets relatively less importance in the markets because it is known to be a lagging indicator – it usually falls behind economic turns.
Average Hourly Earnings Growth: The growth rate between one month�s average hourly rate and another�s sheds light on wage growth and, hence, assesses the potential of wage-push inflation. The year-on-year rate is also important in capturing the longer-term trend.
The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they’re getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state and future direction of the economy. They also provide insight on wage trends and wage inflation. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage
inflation threatens, usually interest rates will rise, and bond and stock prices will fall. One weakness in this indicator is it is subject to significant revisions and large seasonal distortions.
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4200 117.60 2.0490
R2 1.4165 117.20 2.0450
R1 1.4140 116.75 2.0395
S1 1.4085 116.20 2.0300
S2 1.4065 115.80 2.0275
S3 1.4035 115.30 2.0240
-GMT 12:30 USA Employment Report
D) TRADING TIPS
Major Reversal Patterns
Differences Between Tops and Bottoms. Topping patterns are usually shorter in duration and are more volatile than bottoms. Price swings within the tops are wider and more violent. Tops usually take less time to form. Bottoms usually have smaller price ranges but take longer to build. For this reason it is usually easier and less costly to identify and trade bottoms than to catch market tops. One consoling factor, which makes the more treacherous topping patterns
worthwhile, is that prices tend to decline faster than they go up.
Therefore, the trader can usually make more money a lot faster by catching the short side of a bear market than by trading the long side of a bull market. Topping patterns are harder to catch, but are worth the effort.