Newsletter 11/10/2007

A) CALENDAR

-10/10/2007

  • GMT 23:50 JPN M2+CDs (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.0% PREVIOUS -0.1%
    -GMT 23:50 JPN M2+CDs (y/y), (Sep) EST 1.8% PREVIOUS 1.8%
    Definition
    M1 + Quasi-Money (Time Deposits etc.) + CDs
    [ Financial institutions surveyed for Deposit Money, Quasi-Money, and CDs ]
    Domestically Licensed Banks (including Foreign Trust Banks), Foreign Banks in Japan, Shinkin Central Bank, Shinkin Banks, Norinchukin Bank and Shoko Chukin Bank

-GMT 23:50 JPN Broad liquidity (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.0%
-GMT 23:50 JPN Broad liquidity (y/y), (Sep) EST 3.7% PREVIOUS 3.7%

-GMT 23:50 JPN Bank lending (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.0% PREVIOUS 0.2%
-GMT 23:50 JPN Bank lending (y/y), (Sep) EST 0.3% PREVIOUS 0.5%

-GMT 23:50 JPN Current account (Aug) EST 2050.4B PREVIOUS 1855.9B
-GMT 23:50 JPN Adjusted Current Account (Aug) EST 2203.8B PREVIOUS 1753.9B
Definition
Balance of trade plus NET investment income & transfers. The difference between what the country earns and spends overseas. The �current account� more specifically deals with the daily recurring transactions in the ordinary course of business. It involves international receipts & payments including trading receipts & payments, service receipts & payments and unilateral transfers such as payment of royalties, repatriation of after-tax profits & dividends, remittance of after-tax wages & other income by foreign employees and any payment of interest on foreign debts.

-GMT 23:50 JPN Trade Balance (Aug) EST B PREVIOUS 784.3B
Definition
Balance of trade figures are the sum of the money gained by a given economy by selling exports, minus the cost of buying imports. They form part of the balance of payments, which also includes other transactions such as international investment. The figures are usually split into visible and invisible balance figures. The visible balance represents the physical goods, and invisible represents other forms of trade, e.g. the service economy.
A positive balance of trade is known as a trade surplus and consists of exporting more (in financial capital terms) than one imports. A negative balance of trade is known as a trade deficit and consists of importing more than one exports. Neither is necessarily dangerous in modern economies, although large trade surpluses or trade deficits may sometimes be a sign of other economic problems.
If the balance of trade is positive, then the economy has received more money than it has spent. This may appear to be a good thing but may not always be so.

-GMT 23:50 JPN Core Machine orders (m/m), (Aug) EST -4.0% PREVIOUS 17.0%
-GMT 23:50 JPN Core Machine orders (y/y), (Aug) EST -0.4% PREVIOUS 8.0%
Definition
Machine Orders Data (also known as Machine Tool Order Data) is a figure issued by Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) every month. It serves as one indicator of the Japanese economy. In the forex market, the release of such data is often followed by sharp change in currency exchange rate.

-11/10/2007
-JAPAN- BoJ Target Decision EST 0.5% PREVIOUS 0.5%

-JAPAN -BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks

-GMT 06:00 JPN BoJ Monthly Report

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4215 118.05 2.0490
R2 1.4200 117.80 2.0475
R1 1.4180 117.60 2.0440
S1 1.4110 116.95 2.0395
S2 1.4090 116.80 2.0365
S3 1.4060 116.65 2.0340

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates

  • (11/10/2007) BoJ Target Decision
  • (11/10/2007) BOJ Governor Fukui Speaks
  • (11/10/2007) GMT 06:00 JPN BoJ Monthly Report

D) TRADING TIPS
Triangles have measuring techniques. In the case of the symmetrical triangle, there are a couple of techniques generally used. The simplest technique is to measure the height of the vertical line at the widest part of the triangle (the base) and measure that distance from the breakout point. The second method is to draw a trendline from the top of the base parallel to the lower trendline. This upper channel line then becomes the upside target in an uptrend. It is possible to arrive at a rough time target for prices to meet the upper channel line. Prices will sometimes hit the channel line at the same time the two converging lines meet at
the apex.

EUROPEAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 09:00 EU GDP (q/q), (2q F) EST 0.3% PREVIOUS 0.3%
-GMT 09:00 EU GDP (y/y), (2q F) EST 2.5% PREVIOUS 2.5%
Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of final goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a year. It is one of the measures of national income and output. It may be used as one indicator of the standard of living in a country, but there may be limitations with this view.

-GMT 09:15 EU ECB’s Trichet Speaks in Moscow

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4215 118.05 2.0475
R2 1.4200 117.80 2.0440
R1 1.4180 117.60 2.0420
S1 1.4135 117.25 2.0365
S2 1.4115 116.95 2.0340
S3 1.4090 116.80 2.0310

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 09:00 EU GDP

D) TRADING TIPS
Triangles have measuring techniques. In the case of the symmetrical triangle, there are a couple of techniques generally used. The simplest technique is to measure the height of the vertical line at the widest part of the triangle (the base) and measure that distance from the breakout point. The second method is to draw a trendline from the top of the base parallel to the lower trendline. This upper channel line then becomes the upside target in an uptrend. It is possible to arrive at a rough time target for prices to meet the upper channel line. Prices will sometimes hit the channel line at the same time the two converging lines meet at
the apex

US SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 12:30 USA Import Prices (m/m), (Sep) EST 1.0% PREVIOUS -0.3%
-GMT 12:30 USA Import Prices (y/y), (Sep) EST % PREVIOUS 1.9%
Definition
The Import Price Index measures prices American consumers pay for imports. Export Price Index measures prices American producers charge for exports. Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects net transaction prices for more than 20,000 products from over 6,000 companies and secondary sources. These prices are then weighted according to the relative importance and are not seasonally adjusted. Changes in import and export prices gauge inflation here and abroad. Inflation leads to higher interest rates.

-GMT 12:30 USA Initial Claims EST 315k PREVIOUS 317k
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

-GMT 12:30 USA International Trade (Aug) EST -59.0$B PREVIOUS -59.2$B
Definition
Balance of trade figures are the sum of the money gained by a given economy by selling exports, minus the cost of buying imports. They form part of the balance of payments, which also includes other transactions such as international investment. The figures are usually split into visible and invisible balance figures. The visible balance represents the physical goods, and invisible represents other forms of trade, e.g. the service economy.
A positive balance of trade is known as a trade surplus and consists of exporting more (in financial capital terms) than one imports. A negative balance of trade is known as a trade deficit and consists of importing more than one exports. Neither is necessarily dangerous in modern economies, although large trade surpluses or trade deficits may sometimes be a sign of other economic problems.
If the balance of trade is positive, then the economy has received more money than it has spent. This may appear to be a good thing but may not always be so.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4280 118.05 2.0475
R2 1.4255 117.80 2.0440
R1 1.4215 117.60 2.0420
S1 1.4180 117.25 2.0365
S2 1.4160 116.95 2.0340
S3 1.4135 116.80 2.0310

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 12:30 USA International Trade

D) TRADING TIPS
Triangles have measuring techniques. In the case of the symmetrical triangle, there are a couple of techniques generally used. The simplest technique is to measure the height of the vertical line at the widest part of the triangle (the base) and measure that distance from the breakout point. The second method is to draw a trendline from the top of the base parallel to the lower trendline. This upper channel line then becomes the upside target in an uptrend. It is possible to arrive at a rough time target for prices to meet the upper channel line. Prices will sometimes hit the channel line at the same time the two converging lines meet at
the apex.