Newsletter 15/11/2007

ASIAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-14/11/2007
-GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (m/m), (Sep) EST -1.0% PREVIOUS 1.3%
-GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.6% PREVIOUS 2.1%
Definition
The tertiary index measures activity in six industries: utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4715 112.00 2.0620
R2 1.4685 111.80 2.0595
R1 1.4655 111.45 2.0545
S1 1.4620 111.15 2.0480
S2 1.4590 110.80 2.0450
S3 1.4560 110.30 2.0400

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates

  • (14/11/2007) GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index

D) TRADING TIPS
CANDLESTICKS REVERSAL PATTERNS
Evening Star: The Evening Star is a bearish reversal candle pattern, as its name suggests. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick which fully enforces the current uptrend. On the open of the second day, prices gap up above the body of the first day. Trading on this second day is somewhat restricted and the close price is near the open price while remaining above the body of the first day. The body for the second day is small. This type of day following a long day is referred to as a Star pattern. A Star is a small body day that gaps away from a long body day. The third and last day of this pattern opens with a gap below the body of the star and closes lower with the close price below the midpoint of the first day.

EUROPEAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 09:30 UK Retail sales (m/m), (Oct) EST 0.1% PREVIOUS 0.6%
-GMT 09:30 UK Retail sales (y/y), (Oct) EST 4.8% PREVIOUS 6.3%
Definition
The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of business in retail trade throughout the nation. It is the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns and is adjusted for normal seasonal variation, holidays, and trading-day differences. Retail sales include durable and nondurable merchandise sold, and services and excise taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Excluded are sales taxes collected directly from the customer. It also excludes spending for services, a large component of consumer expenditures. Retail sales is a the first picture of consumer spending for a given month. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. Also, gas and food component changes are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand. Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to large revisions.

-GMT 10:00 EU HICP core (y/y), (Oct) EST 1.9% PREVIOUS 1.8%
Definition
This indicator is a derivative of the CPI that excludes the volatile Food and Energy items.

-GMT 10:00 EU HICP final (m/m), (Oct) EST 0.5% PREVIOUS 0.4%
-GMT 10:00 EU HICP final (y/y), (Oct) EST 2.6% PREVIOUS 2.6%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of
prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4785 112.00 2.0740
R2 1.4750 111.80 2.0680
R1 1.4715 111.65 2.0620
S1 1.4655 111.05 2.0505
S2 1.4620 110.80 2.0480
S3 1.4590 110.30 2.0450

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 09:30 UK Retail sales
-GMT 10:00 EU HICP final
-GMT 10:00 EU HICP Core

D) TRADING TIPS
CANDLESTICKS REVERSAL PATTERNS
Evening Star: The Evening Star is a bearish reversal candle pattern, as its name suggests. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick which fully enforces the current uptrend. On the open of the second day, prices gap up above the body of the first day. Trading on this second day is somewhat restricted and the close price is near the open price while remaining above the body of the first day. The body for the second day is small. This type of day following a long day is referred to as a Star pattern. A Star is a small body day that gaps away from a long body day. The third and last day of this pattern opens with a gap below the body of the star and closes lower with the close price below the midpoint of the first day.

US SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 13:30 USA CPI (m/m), (Oct) EST 0.3% PREVIOUS 0.3%
-GMT 13:30 USA CPI (y/y), (Oct) EST 3.5% PREVIOUS 2.8%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

-GMT 13:30 USA CPI Core (m/m), (Oct) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.2%
-GMT 13:30 USA CPI Core (y/y), (Oct) EST 2.2% PREVIOUS 2.1%
Definition
This indicator is a derivative of the CPI that excludes the volatile Food and Energy items.

-GMT 13:30 USA Initial claims EST 320k PREVIOUS 317k
Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

-GMT 13:30 USA Empire Manufacturing (Nov) EST 19.5 PREVIOUS 28.8
Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. This index is seasonally
adjusted using the Philadelphia Fed’s seasonal factors because its own history is not long enough with data only going back a couple of years.

-GMT 17:00 USA Philly Fed Survey (Nov) EST 5.0 PREVIOUS 6.8
Definition
A composite diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey is widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends since it is correlated with the NAPM survey and the index of industrial production.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4715 111.70 2.0620
R2 1.4675 111.30 2.0565
R1 1.4655 110.80 2.0495
S1 1.4590 110.30 2.0420
S2 1.4560 109.80 2.0400
S3 1.4530 109.30 2.0355

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 13:30 USA CPI
-GMT 13:30 USA CPI Core
-GMT 13:30 USA Empire Manufacturing
-GMT 17:00 USA Philly Fed Survey

D) TRADING TIPS
CANDLESTICKS REVERSAL PATTERNS
Evening Star: The Evening Star is a bearish reversal candle pattern, as its name suggests. The first day of this pattern is a long white candlestick which fully enforces the current uptrend. On the open of the second day, prices gap up above the body of the first day. Trading on this second day is somewhat restricted and the close price is near the open price while remaining above the body of the first day. The body for the second day is small. This type of day following a long day is referred to as a Star pattern. A Star is a small body day that gaps away from a long body day. The third and last day of this pattern opens with a gap below the body of the star and closes lower with the close price below the midpoint of the first day.