Newsletter 16/10/2007

ASIAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-15/10/2007

  • GMT 23:00 USA Bernanke Speaks to Economic Club of New York Dinner

-16/10/2007
-GMT 06:00 GER CPI final (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.2%
-GMT 06:00 GER CPI final (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.5% PREVIOUS 2.5%
-GMT 06:00 GER HICP final (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.2%
-GMT 06:00 GER HICP final (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.7% PREVIOUS 2.7%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4280 117.95 2.0490
R2 1.4260 117.65 2.0475
R1 1.4240 117.45 2.0440
S1 1.4190 117.00 2.0395
S2 1.4160 116.80 2.0370
S3 1.4135 116.65 2.0350

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates

  • (15/10/2007) GMT 23:00 USA Bernanke Speaks to Economic Club of New York Dinner

D) TRADING TIPS
The measuring technique of the descending triangle is exactly the same as the ascending triangle in the sense that the trader must measure the height of the pattern of the pattern at the base to the left and then project that distance down from the breakdown point.

EUROPEAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 08:30 UK CPI (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.4%
-GMT 08:30 UK CPI (y/y), (Sep) EST 1.9% PREVIOUS 1.8%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

-GMT 08:30 UK CPI-Core (y/y), (Sep) EST 1.8% PREVIOUS 1.8%
Definition
This indicator is a derivative of the CPI that excludes the volatile Food and Energy items.

-GMT 09:00 GER ZEW Sentiment (Oct) EST -22.3 PREVIOUS -18.1
-GMT 09:00 GER ZEW current (Oct) EST 70.0 PREVIOUS 74.4
-GMT 09:00 EU ZEW Sentiment (Oct) EST -25.0 PREVIOUS -20.3
Definition
The ZEW works in the field of user-related empirical economic research. In this context it particularly distinguished itself nationally and internationally by analysing internationally comparative issues in the European context and by compiling scientifically important data bases.
The ZEW’s duty is to carry out economic research, economic counseling and knowledge transfer. The institute focuses on decision-makers in politics, economics, and administration, scientists in the national and international arena as well as the interested public. Regular interviews on the situation on the financial markets and business-related service providers as well as large-scale annual studies on technological competitiveness of and innovation activities in the economy are representative of the different types of topical information provided by the ZEW.
The ZEW is subdivided into the following five research fields:
International Finance and Financial Management;
Labour Economics, Human Resources, and Social Policy;
Industrial Economics and International Management;
Corporate Taxation and Public Business Finance;
Environmental and Resource Economics, Eco-management.

-GMT 09:00 EU HICP core (y/y), (Sep) EST 1.9% PREVIOUS 1.9%
Definition
This indicator is a derivative of the CPI that excludes the volatile Food and Energy items.

-GMT 09:00 EU HICP final (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.4% PREVIOUS 0.1%
-GMT 09:00 EU HICP final (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.1% PREVIOUS 2.1%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4280 117.95 2.0490
R2 1.4260 117.65 2.0475
R1 1.4240 117.45 2.0440
S1 1.4190 117.00 2.0370
S2 1.4160 116.80 2.0350
S3 1.4135 116.65 2.0310

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 08:30 UK CPI
-GMT 08:30 UK CPI-Core
-GMT 09:00 GER ZEW
-GMT 09:00 EU HICP
-GMT 09:00 EU HICP-Core

D) TRADING TIPS
The measuring technique of the descending triangle is exactly the same as the ascending triangle in the sense that the trader must measure the height of the pattern of the pattern at the base to the left and then project that distance down from the breakdown point.

US SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 13:00 CAN BoC Rate Decision EST 4.5% PREVIOUS 4.5%

-GMT 13:00 USA Net Foreign Security Purchases (Aug) EST $60.0B PREVIOUS $19.2B
Definition
These Treasury data track the flows of financial instruments into and out of the United States. Instruments tracked include Treasury securities, agency securities, corporate bonds, and corporate equities.

-GMT 13:15 USA Industrial Prod (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.1% PREVIOUS 0.2%
Definition
Industrial production consists of the total output of a nation�s plants, utilities, and mines. From a fundamental point of view, it is an important economic indicator that reflects the strength of the economy, and by extrapolation, the strength of a specific currency.

-GMT 13:15 USA Capacity Util. (Sep) EST 82.1% PREVIOUS 82.2%
Definition
Capacity utilization consists of total industrial output divided by total production capability. The term refers to the maximum level of output a plant can generate under normal business conditions. A normal �figure� for a steady economy is 81.5 percent. If the figure reads 85 percent or more, the data suggests that the industrial production is overheating, that the economy is close to full capacity. High capacity utilization rates precede inflation, and expectation in the foreign exchange market is that the central bank will raise interest rates in order to avoid or fight inflation.

-GMT 17:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct) EST 19 PREVIOUS 20
Definition
The Housing Market Index is data from a survey of home builders reflecting single-family home sales on the present, the next six months and traffic from prospective buyers. This composite index indicates housing market trends. This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but consumer sentiment as well. Furthermore,
this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and investments. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic “ripple effect” can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4240 117.45 2.0440
R2 1.4225 117.25 2.0395
R1 1.4200 117.00 2.0360
S1 1.4150 116.45 2.0310
S2 1.4130 116.15 2.0275
S3 1.4100 115.90 2.0245

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 13:00 CAN BoC Rate Decision
-GMT 13:00 USA Net Foreign Security Purchases
-GMT 17:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index

D) TRADING TIPS
The measuring technique of the descending triangle is exactly the same as the ascending triangle in the sense that the trader must measure the height of the pattern of the pattern at the base to the left and then project that distance down from the breakdown point.