Newsletter 17/10/2007

ASIAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-16/10/2007
-GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (m/m), (Aug) EST 1.0% PREVIOUS -0.5%
-GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index (y/y), (Aug) EST 2.0% PREVIOUS 1.3%
Definition
The tertiary index measures activity in six industries: utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services.

-17/10/2007
-GMT 05:00 JPN Leading index (Aug) EST 27.3 PREVIOUS 30.0

-GMT 05:00 JPN Coincident index (Aug) EST 85.0 PREVIOUS 83.3
Definition
An economic indicator that generally moves in line with the general business cycle such as industrial production.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4240 117.45 2.0410
R2 1.4215 117.15 2.0380
R1 1.4180 117.00 2.0350
S1 1.4155 116.70 2.0295
S2 1.4135 116.40 2.0265
S3 1.4100 116.25 2.0245

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates

  • (16/10/2007) GMT 23:50 JPN Tertiary Industry Index

D) TRADING TIPS
While the descending triangle is a continuation pattern and usually is found within downtrends ,it is not unusual on occasion for the descending triangle to be found at market tops. This type of pattern is not that difficult to recognize when it does appear in the top setting. In that case, a close below the flat lower line would signal a major trend reversal to the downside.

EUROPEAN SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 07:00 EU ECB Council Member Liikanen Speaks in Helsinki

-GMT 08:30 UK BoE Minutes

-GMT 08:30 UK Av. Earnings inc bonus (3Mo/Yr), (Aug) EST 3.6% PREVIOUS 3.5%
Definition
The Average Earnings Index (AEI) measures the average wage, including bonuses, paid to employees.

-GMT 08:30 UK Average Earnings ex bonus (3Mo/Yr), (Aug) EST 3.6% PREVIOUS 3.5%
Definition
The Average Earnings Index (AEE) measures the average wage, paid to employees

-GMT 08:30 UK Claimant count Rate (Sep) EST 2.6% PREVIOUS 2.6%
Definition
The Claimant Count measures the change in number of people claiming unemployment related benefits over the previous month.

-GMT 08:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mo),(Aug) EST 5.4% PREVIOUS 5.4%
Definition
The percentage of the people classified as unemployed as compared to the total labor force.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4240 117.45 2.0410
R2 1.4215 117.15 2.0380
R1 1.4180 117.00 2.0350
S1 1.4155 116.25 2.0265
S2 1.4135 115.90 2.0245
S3 1.4100 115.65 2.0210

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 08:30 UK BoE Minutes
-GMT 08:30 UK Employment Report

D) TRADING TIPS
While the descending triangle is a continuation pattern and usually is found within downtrends ,it is not unusual on occasion for the descending triangle to be found at market tops. This type of pattern is not that difficult to recognize when it does appear in the top setting. In that case, a close below the flat lower line would signal a major trend reversal to the downside.

US SESSION

A) CALENDAR

-GMT 12:30 USA CPI (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS -0.1%
-GMT 12:30 USA CPI (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.8% PREVIOUS 2.0%
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) gauges the average change in retail prices for a fixed market basket of goods and services. The CPI data is compiled from a sample of prices for food, shelter, clothing, fuel, transportation and medical services that people purchase on daily basis.

-GMT 12:30 USA CPI Core (m/m), (Sep) EST 0.2% PREVIOUS 0.2%
-GMT 12:30 USA CPI Core (y/y), (Sep) EST 2.1% PREVIOUS 2.1%
Definition
This indicator is a derivative of the CPI that excludes the volatile Food and Energy items.

-GMT 12:30 USA Housing Starts (Sep) EST 1283k PREVIOUS 1331k
Definition
An estimate of the number of housing units on which construction was started. Starting construction is defined as excavation for the footings or foundation, or the first shovel of dirt to break ground. (In response to natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew in August of 1992, that definition has been expanded to a housing unit built on an existing foundation after the previous structure had been completely
destroyed.) Housing starts are divided into single-family and multifamily(2+) units. Beginning construction on a 100 unit apartment building, for example, is counted as 100 starts.

-GMT 12:30 USA Building Permits (Sep) EST 1288k PREVIOUS 1322k

-GMT 18:00 USA Fed�s Beige Book
Definition
Officially known as the Survey on Current Economic Conditions, the Beige Book, is published eight times per year by a Federal Reserve Bank, containing anecdotal information on current economic and business conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors, and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book highlights the activity information by District and sector. The survey normally covers a period of about 4-weeks in duration, and is released two weeks prior to each FOMC meeting, which is also held eight times per year. While being deemed by some as a lagging report, the Beige Book has usually served as a helpful indicator to FOMC policy decisions on monetary policy.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4280 117.45 2.0475
R2 1.4240 117.15 2.0435
R1 1.4215 116.90 2.0410
S1 1.4155 116.40 2.0265
S2 1.4135 116.25 2.0245
S3 1.4100 115.90 2.0210

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 12:30 USA CPI
-GMT 12:30 USA CPI-Core
-GMT 12:30 USA Housing Starts
-GMT 18:00 USA Fed�s Beige Book

D) TRADING TIPS
While the descending triangle is a continuation pattern and usually is found within downtrends ,it is not unusual on occasion for the descending triangle to be found at market tops. This type of pattern is not that difficult to recognize when it does appear in the top setting. In that case, a close below the flat lower line would signal a major trend reversal to the downside.