Newsletter 25/09/2007

Trading Discussion News and Economy
#1

A) CALENDAR

-24/09/2007
-GMT 23:50 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for August

-GMT 23:50 JPN CSPI (y/y), (Aug) EST 1.6% PREVIOUS 1.6%

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4155 115.30 2.0320
R2 1.4130 115.15 2.0295
R1 1.4095 114.95 2.0245
S1 1.4060 114.65 2.0200
S2 1.4030 114.50 2.0175
S3 1.3995 114.30 2.0140

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates

  • (24/09/2007) GMT 23:50 JPN BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for August

D) TRADING TIPS
Speedlines provide an innovative method for trend analysis, perfected by Edson Gould and quickly embraced by the technicians. To calculate speedlines, the total range of a trend is divinded into thirds on a vertical line. The two speedlines are plotted by connecting the origin of the range (bottom for an uptrend and top for a downtrend) and the 1/3 and 2/3 levels respectively. A price fluctuation away from the trend, which finds support the at the first (1/3) speedline, indicates that the trend continues smoothly ahead. The penetration of the first (1/3) speedline is a trend-weakening warning; the next level to watch is the second speedline (2/3). If the currency price bounces back, we may be faced with an uncertain (or consolidation) period between the first (1/3) and second (2/3) speedlines. If the last speedline gives way as well, then the next target is the origin of the range. The previous rule, that a penetrated support level will turn into a resistance level, and its converse, remain valid for speedlines. Speedlines may be applied to all charts.

#2

EUROPEAN SESSION
A) CALENDAR

-GMT 08:00 GER IFO index (Sep) EST 105.0 PREVIOUS 105.8
-GMT 08:00 GER IFO current (Sep) EST 111.0 PREVIOUS 111.5
-GMT 08:00 GER IFO expect (Sep) EST 99.4 PREVIOUS 100.4
Definition
The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as �good�, �satisfactorily� or �poor� and their business expectations for the next six months as �more favourable�, �unchanged� or �more unfavourable�. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses �good� and �poor�, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses �more favourable� and �more unfavourable�. The business climate is a
transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2000.

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4155 115.30 2.0200
R2 1.4130 115.15 2.0175
R1 1.4095 114.95 2.0140
S1 1.4060 114.50 2.0100
S2 1.4030 114.30 2.0085
S3 1.4015 114.00 2.0050

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 08:00 GER IFO

D) TRADING TIPS
Speedlines provide an innovative method for trend analysis, perfected by Edson Gould and quickly embraced by the technicians. To calculate speedlines, the total range of a trend is divinded into thirds on a vertical line. The two speedlines are plotted by connecting the origin of the range (bottom for an uptrend and top for a downtrend) and the 1/3 and 2/3 levels respectively. A price fluctuation away from the trend, which finds support the at the first (1/3) speedline, indicates that the trend continues smoothly ahead. The penetration of the first (1/3) speedline is a trend-weakening warning; the next level to watch is the second speedline (2/3). If the currency price bounces back, we may be faced with an uncertain (or consolidation) period between the first (1/3) and second (2/3) speedlines. If the last speedline gives way as well, then the next target is the origin of the range. The previous rule, that a penetrated support level will turn into a resistance level, and its converse, remain valid for speedlines. Speedlines may be applied to all charts.

#3

US SESSION
A) CALENDAR

-GMT 14:00 USA Consumer Confidence (Sep) EST 104.5 PREVIOUS 105.0
Definition
The Consumer Confidence index attempts to gauge consumers’ feelings about the current condition of the economy and their expectations about the economy’s future direction.

-GMT 14:00 USA Existing Home Sales (m/m) (Aug) EST 5550k PREVIOUS 5750k
-GMT 14:00 USA Existing Home Sales (m/m) (Aug) EST -4.3% PREVIOUS -0.2%
Definition
Existing Home Sales is a measure of the selling rate of pre-owned single-family homes, collected by the National Association of Realtors from 650 realtor associations.

-GMT 14:30 EU ECB’s Liebscher Speaks in Vienna

-GMT 21:30 USA Fed’s Plosser Speaks About Economy, Productivity in New Jersey

B) SUPPORT-RESISTANCE
EURO/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD
R3 1.4180 115.30 2.0200
R2 1.4155 115.10 2.0175
R1 1.4130 114.95 2.0140
S1 1.4060 114.55 2.0085
S2 1.4030 114.30 2.0050
S3 1.4000 114.00 2.0035

C) WATCH
-Interest Rates
-GMT 14:00 USA Consumer Confidence
-GMT 14:00 USA Existing Home Sales

D) TRADING TIPS
Speedlines provide an innovative method for trend analysis, perfected by Edson Gould and quickly embraced by the technicians. To calculate speedlines, the total range of a trend is divinded into thirds on a vertical line. The two speedlines are plotted by connecting the origin of the range (bottom for an uptrend and top for a downtrend) and the 1/3 and 2/3 levels respectively. A price fluctuation away from the trend, which finds support the at the first (1/3) speedline, indicates that the trend continues smoothly ahead. The penetration of the first (1/3) speedline is a trend-weakening warning; the next level to watch is the second speedline (2/3). If the currency price bounces back, we may be faced with an uncertain (or consolidation) period between the first (1/3) and second (2/3) speedlines. If the last speedline gives way as well, then the next target is the origin of the range. The previous rule, that a penetrated support level will turn into a resistance level, and its converse, remain valid for speedlines. Speedlines may be applied to all charts