Hey guys! Got any trade ideas for the NFP release today? Looks like the ADP has hinted at a slight slowdown but the trend in initial jobless claims has been positive for hiring.
I’m thinking of taking a straddle setup on USD/JPY for this one since the pair is in tight consolidation. How about you?
I’m staying away from the JPY crosses today- don’t have much interest right now as I recently traded the big EURJPY rally.
For today, I’m looking @ the Pound and the Swissie.
The GBP got crushed overnight & the CAD is looking strong this morning.
And the Swissie H4 technical picture is very clean.
My strategy for NFP involves fading the initial move- so, my attention goes to where the larger movements in price are. I rely on the FXCM StrongWeak App to aggregate movements in Pips.
My logic has always been- “Fade the largest move, because it typically will have the most potential to spring back to pre-NFP prices”.
Jake
I’m still holding my long entered usdjpy at 102.80. This being my first fundamental based trade I have no real insight other than strong resistance may have turned to support and the NFP projections and tech analysis lead me to believe higher prices. It is Friday tho. Not sure how long I’ll be holding this one. Let us know how it goes guys
got lucky as i had short position on UJ’s yesterday’s high and after price crossed fiercely today’s pivot point left it alone and ran all the way to 102.461 'til it met the descending trendline from January 2 to April 4; remains to see if it holds as support.
thinking of buying the weekend’s local lottery too after that…
Still long. I’m in again at 102.80. 101.70 sl and 105.80 tp. For some reason I just want to let this one ride itself out.
[QUOTE=“Braden1;645858”]Still long. I’m in again at 102.80. 101.70 sl and 105.80 tp. For some reason I just want to let this one ride itself out.[/QUOTE]
Ouch! I see this dawg heading back below 102. But again who knows.
Support may hold at the 102.30 level for a couple days then get going in light of the BoJ announcement. My normal technical analysis would have me get out if 102.30 is broken through. Trying to incorporate some PnF charting into my planning hence the bigger SL at a more substantial level of support. I’m willing to pay for some mistakes as I develop another methodology into my trading strategy. You’d think I’d be using my demo account only, no, too stupid to do that lol fingers crossed
Hello everyone,
I have an NFP query that I wish to consult the seniors (all of you).
Normally it will be bullish if the actual NFP release is better than forecast. But on 5th April 2013, the opposite happened.
The actual release was much worse than the forecast. But USD seemed to be strengthening and is moving downwards on AUD/USD for the rest of the day before weekend. I have checked AUD’s economic calender on the day, and the day before. But no major news was released for AUD.
Anyone can justify the movement?
Pls help to enlighten me.
Thanks
Ojy
Babypips economic calendar shows NFP came in at 138 of a forecasted 190. You’re right. NFP is just one of unlimited factors that can move a pair tho. One of the better ways to trade the NFP is to fade the move as was mentioned earlier. Most people fading the news will drop to a 15 min chart and begin fading 15 min after the news release as price tends to revert to pre-news prices.
I’m not gonna go back to April 5th on a 15 minute chart but you’ll probably find an answer there. 15 minute chart on audusd on April 5th. Go to 8 am. At 8am the dollar probably lost strength on the 15 minute candle. The next candle probably showed the move was over. After the 815 candle closed price moved back to where it was before the news release.
It’s not a 100% winner strategy because nothing is but if you want a pretty good chance of bagging some pips then fading the news on the NFP isn’t a bad way to go. Trends tend to continue on their way after about 9 or 10 o’clock.
I stick to daily timeframes or higher but I’ve done it a couple times. Usually works out.
I’m not a senior I’ve only been trading a few years. forexunlimited can shed some more light for you if he sees your post.
Don’t try to justify anything when it comes to fundamentals.
Just be aware of the release, and trade whatever the market shows you.
There isn’t a direct correlation between a positive release for a currency, and bullish price action, 100% of the time.
It’s not that black-and-white.
Hi Braden,
Thank you so much for the feedback. Will check out more on fading.
Hi FXULMT,
Thank you for the information too.
NFP is very influential, so something huge must have happened during the timing of NFP release to change the direction of the market. Completely agreed that the correlation will not be 100% of the time, but there must be a logic behind right? Or maybe I’m wrong?
You advised not to justify anything when it comes to fundamentals, so does that mean that the market does move illogically… from time to time?
Please shed another light.
Thank you.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and trade ideas, guys! That release was a pretty crazy one in terms of volatility, particularly for USD/JPY which still appears to be indecisive at the moment. Yep, there is no absolute guarantee on how the dollar might react to a stronger or weaker report but the latest releases show that the odds favor a fundamental reaction (strong data leads to strong dollar, weak data leads to weak dollar). It’s just that other market factors such as risk aversion also come into play.
