I don´t trade this Index. But i study it because for me it´s like an alert in case of a future global crisis. I could study the S&P500 but i´ve prefered the Nikkei225 considering that i use to trade jpy instruments.
I study it from H4 and Daily Time Frame charts. My trading plan is just Price Action, i´m manual trader.
From my Trading Plan there was downtrend signal since 05/15 in H4. There isn´t same signal from Daily TF.
Trying to read the daily chart with Elliott Wave, it´s possible that a C wave of a correction is finishing. The next step is a downtrend move perhaps looking for a new botton under the 03/23 candle close. If this happens we´ll see volatility increased. But this is just a possibility, i prefer to read the markets, predictions are just adventures.
Hi, everyone. At daily chart last week a downtrend signal has appeared at my trading plan. It could follow a retracement (bullish) but after that the Nikkei will be bearish. I hope this Index crossing candle 03/23 close. My first objetive is at 18700 area. Last days volatility´s increased.
Hello, Despite the Nikkei225 today has been bearish, i believe that it retracement (bullish) hasn´t ended yet. I´m waiting the price crossing 22340 and after that downtrend´ll follow. My target is 22430 area.
Hi. My target 22340 area was crossed. Working from H1 i hope the Nikkei225 crossing the resistance area 22615. Above this area probably a downtrend signal will appear from H1 with my trading plan. I don´t forget that from daily chart there´s downtrend signal.
Hi, @Kamajafx,
This made me intrigued. Can you please share what signs you would consider as hinting for such crisis?
Hi, Sebastiano. Difficult to explain in english but i´ll do my best effort. In regular conditions i usually trade the usdjpy. A feature of this pair is that in those regular conditions, usdjpy and eurusd move at opposite directions, like mirror. But when conditions change at markets and stock exchange begin a downtrend, shares holders begin to sell them, they don´t want the shares they prefer refuge currencies such jpy, usd and chf. So demand by these currencies increases and when this demand increases they revaluate. If they revaluate usdjpy´ll be bearish and eurusd´ll be bearish, too. No more mirror, they begin to move at same direction, downtrend. With this new feature things aren´t easy for me. My mind is prepared for opposite direction. I lost a tool to trade and furthermore at this new conditions, volatility really increases. And i add that the change for opposite to same direction isn´t easy to anticipate. I need some tool to help me and that tool is an Index. When at Nikkei225 i find downtrend signal i begin to suspect. I hope i´ve answered your question. I recommend to traders to study at least an Index preferently S&P500 who trade the usd pairs and Nikkei225 who trade jpy pairs. I hope you study the Nikkei225 so both can post at this thread. Greetings.
Thank you so much for the detailed explanation. I see what you mean here, since the two pairs start behaving the same way, your established strategy gets confused which is completely normal. In my opinion, this situation could be expected as so far I’ve found that often markets can be quite unpredictable. But your advice for studying an index as a back-up plan is quite valuable. I might try this.