I believe the 158,000 number you’re talking about is from the ADP employment index released today. It’s the largest gain in the ADP index since June’s 368,000.
The ADP report is considered by some to be the best single predictor of the government’s nonfarm payroll report, but its record has been spotty since being rolling out in public in April. So just because ADP shows good numbers doesn’t necessarily mean the NFP will.
For example, the ADP report got it wrong in June, when it forecast private-sector gains of 368,000, while the government report showed just 107,000 new jobs created in the private sector and an additional 27,000 government jobs. Since then, the ADP has been off by an average of 48,000, compared with the government figures. The consensus of economists has been off by an average of 46,000.
Regarding your question of what would happen to the EUR/USD if the NFP is good, you obviously didn’t read my blog post, Euro Top?on Monday.
But that’s okay, here’s a recap:
“[B]Strong Employment Report.[/B] The market has seen the crystal ball and believes that the US economy is in for a hard landing (think plane crash landing) due to its slowing housing market as well as possible interest rate cuts by the Fed mafia early next year. These assumptions (guesses) could all change Friday. If there is large revision upward of last month’s (Oct) non-farm payroll numbers or a huge gain in November, [U]look for the dollar to rise from the dead[/U]. A strong labor market will provide evidence that maybe the US economic outlook isn’t as bad as it seems and there’s really no need for the Fed to start cutting.”