I am relatively new to Forex trading and I am still waiting for my first big long term successful trade.
After looking at currency strengths and weaknesses. I have noticed that NZD/CAD are near to the upper level they have reached before, ie. looking on the Monthly chart I see that they were at this level on 1st March 2013, and also on 1st March 2014. The pair do seem to have already begun to retrace. In the past this pair dropped about 720 in 6 months.
BTW, I am aware this is not the correct forum to post this but I tried to post this on the ‘Other Pairs’ forum but I got the following error ‘The number of tags you tried to add exceeded the maximum number of tags by 20’
Hi Silvaticus.
Now probably isnt the best time to make a judgement, trading volume is low because of the holidays and it doesn’t take much to make a pair spike.
Can I ask why you chose this pair, 2 minors, rather than pair one of them with a major where there would be more liquidity and narrower spreads?
I am only a demo devil, but from what I have seen, price rising into unchartered territories will be suppressed to a point, only to make marginal gains as traders question the markup value within the pair.
As far as CAD goes, only until oil begins to rise, and my one and only man’s opinion, will you see some pip moves re-enter the market for all CAD pairs.?
Seeing USD has an ongoing 5 years of pressure on CAD, Id wait for something to hurt the USD before looking short, or atleast a double top on USDCAD.
Youd be better looking for NZDCAD to drop below .9236 then look for a Buy positions from that point.
And this can go inhand with what “pippin on the moon” presented with oil. Oil is low, and I personally think its about bottomed out, and has very little room north. If Oil starts to rise substantially speaking, it will inturn weaken the USD, which will give CAD some slack to run with.
This is opinion, make no trade presumptions on my assumptions and forecast.
I have been looking for the possibility of a trend change, and by looking at currency strength chart I was brought to the attention of this pair and that it has recently changed direction. When I looked at the monthly chart I noticed that it had it had been slightly higher than it is at the moment in the beginning of 2014 and also 2013.
I have learned to look in the past as this can indicate what can happen in the future and in the past the NZD began to lose value against the CAD when about this value and about this time of year.
As regards to your question about major currencies, the majors would of course be preferable but I am not seeing such a pattern with any of them at the moment.
I am trying to spot the beginning of a long term trade. I will keep an eye on this pair for the time being.