NZDUSD Bearish Bias Strong Below .7687

[B]• Euro Triangle a Possibility
• Japanese Yen Trend Intact
• British Pound Forming a Low?
• Swiss Franc Wave 4 Correction?
• Canadian Dollar Move Stalling
• Australian Dollar Headed Lower
• New Zealand Dollar .7687 Key For Bears[/B]

[B]SEE A DESCRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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[B]Commentary[/B]: There are a few possibilities right now with the EURUSD but the one that seems most probable is that a triangle is unfolding in wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from the June low at 1.3261. Triangles unfold in 5 waves so is a triangle is forming now, then the EURUSD will find a bottom near term and advance towards the upper resistance line near 1.4700 or so.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

[B]Commentary[/B]: We wrote last week that “resistance should be strong in the 108.35/50 area; which is the confluence of the 61.8% of 110.11-105.91, 100% extension of 105.91-107.92/106.35, and 1/15 high. We will look for a top and reversal near there.” The rally ended at 107.59 before price dropped below the 106.00 figure last night. At this point, the short term bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 107.92. There is no change to our targets that lie below 100.00.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

[B]Commentary[/B]: Might the drop to 1.9337 have formed a tradeable bottom? One count in the GBPUSD suggests that a multi-week low is in place as there are 5 waves down from 2.1160. Under this count, the decline from 2.1160 is either wave A or 1 in a 3 or 5 wave bear cycle. Under this count, the pair is expected to rally in either wave B or 2. The stron rally in the last few hours may be the beginning of the corrective advance.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

[B]Commentary[/B]: We had favored the idea that the USDCHF decline was extending as long as price is below 1.1190. While still possible, we want to present an alternate count that calls for a larger recovery before new lows. The drop to 1.0836 could have completed wave 3 within a 5 wave bear cycle from 1.2768. If this is correct, then wave 4 is underway now and has the potential to reach the December high and former 4th wave at 1.1594.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish, against 1.1190, target below 1.0836 (be aware of alternate count though)

[B]Commentary[/B]: Near term, the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves and is either wave C of an A-B-C rally from .9055 or is just wave 1 of either a larger C or 3. Given that the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves, weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) – which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0305 at 1.0094. We’ll look for an opportunity to get long near this support.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat

Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.

[B]Commentary[/B]: The drop below .8682 destroyed the bullish bias. The drop from .9018 is either an A-B-C decline that is nearing completion or in the middle of a 1-2-3-4-5 decline that is just near its midpoint. Either way, resistance should be strong near the 38.2% of .8851-.8512 at .8641. Look for a top and reversal near here to be followed by a drop below .8512.

[B]Strategy[/B]: Get bearish near .8640, against .8710, target below .8512

[B]Commentary[/B]: The decline from .79837 is not complete. Price needs to come at least under .7365 (wave A) before we can begin looking for a bottom. Also, the decline from .7933 is wave iii of C so even a corrective rally in wave iv will give way to lower prices. A potential terminus for the decline is the 61.8% of 6639-.7891 at .7118. The bearish is bias as long as price is below .7687. Resistance should be strong near the current price (just above .7500).

[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish now, against .7687, target TBD
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.

DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.

DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.

200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at [EMAIL=“[email protected]”][email protected]

Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at [email protected][/EMAIL]