Oats Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, OATS: D1 came out of the downtrend up. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if OATS: D1 rises above its most recent high of 405. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the lower Bollinger band, the 15-month low and the last lower fractal: 360. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (360) without activating the order (405), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Oats
USDA has updated its forecast for the global oat crop. Will the OATS quotes continue to rise?
USDA expects a significant increase in the global yield of this crop from 2.35 tons per hectare to 2.57 tons per hectare. According to preliminary estimates, in the 2021/2022 season, 22.54 million tons of oats will be harvested in the world on an area of 9.61 million hectares, and in the 2022/2023 season - already 24.21 million tons, with the expected decrease in crops to 9.42 million hectares. Theoretically, drought and worsening weather conditions could have a negative impact on this yield estimate. Note that in August USDA was more optimistic and estimated the global harvest in the 2022/2023 season at 24.3 million tons. In addition, anti-Russian sanctions may have a positive impact on quotes. Russia ranks second in the world in oat production after Canada. Its share in the world harvest is almost 16%, while Canada’s share is 19%.