Looked for a short today at nyo. Had some technical problems with my computer and ended up chasing price a little but i think it will work out. Shorted at 1.306.
Still in my short from yesterday. Looking at good exit points. This isn’t something I get to do often because frankly I normally get stopped out. hahah
The pictures is pretty self explanatory… I have fib extensions on that small move up as well as the fib expansion tool ( I don’t have much experience with this one). The 161 level on the fib extension lines right up with the 100 level on the expansion tool. If you look to the left of the chart those two levels line up closely with an OTE sweet spot on the fib retracement. So… just looking at these tool 1.297 looks like a great place to close the trade… I wouldn’t mind waiting for it to reach 1.295 but that might be pushing it. We will see.
So far this week I have been looking for shorts… I may be changing my bias. I was thinking that this could be the low of the week. Here are some charts of why I am having these thoughts.
SMT div on higher time frames
Ote on fiber
Reflexion on cable
Ill be looking at this closely when nyo rolls around. I may just sit on my hands and watch. I don’t want to give any of that last trade back. I made almost 100 pips on that one…
Wow, that’s one cracker of a trade bro! 
Congrats!
Thanks PM. It was pretty. hey, I was going to ask, I think I read somewhere that you are a weight lifter… I hit the gym from time to time myself. Used to be into it hard core but I’m so freakin busy now days I’m lucky to get in two days a week…
Just shorted pound. I know I said that I might be looking for longs today but there is some crazy smt div this morning on top of usdxcable div. I was looking at that feeling kinda confused when I noticed that we were right on 78% retracment level… This pretty much made up my mind.
If I’m wrong then that means usdx is about to turn around… But I was comparing it to SP500, Dow Jones Industrial av., and the Nasdaq Composite and I was not seeing any divergence. So I figured if everything is lining up with USDX except for cable then maybe I should just short the cable… this is the first time I have ever used these indexes in my trading so I might be way off. We will see.
I shorted at 1.6020. Did I mention this is right on two previous Asian range highs?
Yesterday’s short didn’t work out… I should have went with my original analysis… The good thing is I suspected something was up and closed out my position for .25% loss…
This morning I went long on fiber at 1.298. I need to slow down and look at higher time frames. This is the most trades I have taken in a week in a long time…
Well not trading today. No thanks to Hurricane Sandy.
Superstorm Sandy will keep financial markets closed Tuesday - TwinCities.com
I think I would be looking at a short if I was going to be serious about trading today but because of the storm Ill just sit on my hands.
I am currently looking at better ways to journal my trades. Currently, I use this thread as a journal as well as a small writing tablet for personal notes. Its not the best method for going back and reviewing trades. I need to find something that is easy to review. Something that I can look at in a glance and see what I did/or was trying to do. Currently I take a few screen shots and make a few shoddy notes. Looking back on them is a pain because I am not getting enough detail and the charts always look different after the fact then before(can you believe that? lol). Looking through my brokers feed gets complicated because I take partial profit by opening small positions against my original short/long. In the feed this just gets confusing and it only take a couple days for me to forget the details of a trade… I am thinking of taking screenshots and then printing the charts out on paper and marking them up with a pen and pencil. Old fashioned I know, but it might be the easiest way to keep track of what I am doing. Simple methods for simple minds right? 
First week of the new year and I am up 5% for the month. yay. I have been staying active with trading even though I haven’t updated this thread. This last year my total greatest draw down was 14%. That was in the beginning of Dec. I have made a little back sense then and am sitting at 8%. Hoping to make that back in the next two months and continue the year in profit. I will try to be better about posting my analysis consistently this year.
Here are some things I did right this year:
I stuck with good money management.
My knowledge of market structure and price action has increased.
First year of maintaining a LIVE account without a margin call.
I have done well with sticking to key times in the market to take a position(London Open and New York Open)
Things I need to work on this year.
Obviously I would like to end the year in profit… this means increase my r:r and % of wins
I need to learn more about interest rates, bonds, and COT report. This was something I wanted to do this last year and just never jumped into it.
Looking at fiber and cable pre-LO. Here are my thoughts.
This week I expect both fiber and cable to go up. I will be looking for buys maybe as early as Monday LO.
Fiber: We have been moving higher (market structure and and flow is up). I looked at position ratios on oanda and fxbooks and its interesting that up 71% of the open positions are shorts… just food for thought. 71% seems a bit extreme doesn’t it? lol
Cable: This one has been tricky the last couple weeks. It really hasn’t fallowed the fiber or respected what usdx has been doing. Friday was an up day which I was waiting for… (I made a nice trade off of 1.575) Does this mean we are on our way up from here? The problem is that the position ratios (mfxbooks and oanda) are saying that 81% of the open positions are long… If i was an institutional trader I think I would try to shake some of those long positions off… just sayin. I might wait to trade cable till Tuesday or Wednesday…
USDX: On Friday we saw a nice down day… We are at some resistance now on the daily so I would like to see that break to the downside. If that doesn’t happen it could just range were its at for a while and I will be screwed. lol There is some nice div between usdx and cable. Part of the reason I would like to buy cable.
There are a few more things that I could post but these are the things I want to review at the end of the week so Ill leave it at that. No pictures because I am feeling lazy. lol peace.
Here is what I was looking at this week…
I think the low of the week was reached today… So I will still be looking for longs.
Okay guys… looks like London express is trying to leave early… Ill be looking at by any retrace back into the Asian range.
Bought cable at 1.5747. Only used a quarter of the risk that I would normally use because this is an aggressive entry.
Holding my cable trade till tomorrow… Took some profit and all my risk is off. This is what I am thinking for in terms of closing the trade… If it doesn’t drop like a rock tomorrow which, frankly, is a possibility.
Closed my cable long from yesterday 60 pips. Not happy with this at all because I was waiting for a specific level and got scared out of waiting.
You can see in the picture that I got scared out of the position by a strong move down… If I would have been paying attention I would have seen that it was just setting up a long ote for the ny session. Instead I closed the position missing out on a extra 43 pips. That would have put this trade up to 103 pips. Those are the kinds of trades I am going for i.e. the weekly range… SO PIPMART PAY ATTENTION TO THIS EXAMPLE THE NEXT TIME YOU START DOUBTING YOUR ANALYSIS.
Price does what price does. You moved in. Got what you can and got out. You will always leave pips on the table.
You made a decision on the movement of price. That’s a far better decision than relying on an indicator.
Celebrate your win.
My mistake didn’t end there… I was also in a fiber long trade. I closed this one at break even, again, because I felt FEAR.
It wasn’t the best entry… Missed the low of the day by ten or so pips because I wanted to see if the 79% retracment would hold as support. Price really waited to move till nyo. I exited because of the sudden down movement a saw in both the cable and fiber. Should have held on to it. If I had I would be sitting on a nice 30 pips. Lesson learned. Stick to the plan man.
Thanks MG99. Good point. I did well managing my risk throughout the trade. Taking profit at predetermined areas and moving my stops. The problem is If i would have left the trade to take my final profit it would have bumped it up to a 3:1 risk reward. That’s really what I am trying to do here. My analysis was pointing to this area in a ton of ways and the move down that i reacted to didn’t change that analysis. (I had already moved stops and stuff to take care of me actually being wrong).
This is basically a slap on my hands to keep the emotional responses under lock and key. Risk reward is 2:1 because of this. Way to go you emotional little girl. (that was directed at me not you) lol
If you’re too emotional, consider lowering pip size. The less you care, the more rational your decision making becomes.
Good point! I do the same thing when I try out something new I want to incorporate. I’m usually just an intraday guy, but lately, I’ve been trying to get into the trades that I hold a few days. In order to do that, I need to set longer stops. (If I had ice in my veins like MG, I wouldn’t even need those…) But I don’t trust my analysis of long-term trades yet, so I cut my lot size in half. You still tend to freak out a bit when you think that you’re risking a ton of pips, but then you remind yourself by doing the math and realize its only half the $$.
Thanks for the advice mg99. Ill play with my position size and see what that does for me. 