The pair, after slightly retreating from 1.0895 resistance it encountered during the week, is approaching the 1.0850 support level. While intraday interim support is seen at 1.0850, I’ll be monitoring 1.0828 as the main support.
In the event of possible reactions, the first intraday resistance is at 1.0870, while the main resistance is at 1.0895.
Very large 1.0850 options expiring today at 10am New York. That will pull price close until it’s over.
Watching these large option levels at 1.0845 & 1.0840 this morning
(FX option expiries for 21 May 10am New York cut | Forexlive)
Wedge setting up. USD FOMC Meeting minutes released tomorrow (Wednesday) may be the catalyst that breaks it.
Large option expirations Wednesday at 1.0830 & 1.0860 ForexLive Option News
Retail Sell Limits at 1.0950, Buy stops at 1.0955.
Retail Sell Stops at 1.0830.
I’m torn on the US pairs right now.
EURUSD looks bullish on the 4H:
Bearish on the daily:
I will just wait for my signal. I’m leaning towards another leg up based on more recent PA. But I won’t even pretend to know for sure.
I feel we’re due for some USD strength. There will be some headline if so as to why. Just noticed crypto & metals has extended up, may be due for a pullback at the same time with EurUsd.
EurUsd broke down London morning. No real catalyst seen… unless the German Bund auction was it.
Retail Sell Stops ran at 1.0830… Options/Option Hedging holding price close to 1.0830 level now.
Here’s the large EurUsd option levels for the rest of the week.
Thursday: Massive option level up at 1.0900 if price could possibly go that high, there’s a lot of resistance.
Friday: Very large option levels from 1.0865-1.0900. Either price rejects the first option level, or if it breaks 1.0865, it’ll be trapped in delta hedging that range until they expire at 10am New York.
Which was moving along nicely until price dropped on Thursday:
Despite the bullish Friday, by bias is now bearish according to the daily chart, which I will trust over the 4H any day:
Large Option levels at 1.0835 & 1.0875 expiring today.
Retail Sell Stops & large bids at 1.0800
Same thing for the top side
Retail Buy Stops & large offers at 1.0900
I believe that 1.0800 will hold long enough for a Buy there. I have a bid pending at 1.08.
Adding to shorts if/when 1.0948-50
EurUsd just ran those sell stops below 1.0805. Now sitting in bids at 1.0800-1.0805
A lot of very big options expiring soon. More than a yard worth at key round numbers (1.0775, 1.0800, 1.0825, 1.0850, 1.0900) Updated with Thursday’s option levels in yellow:
The pair, which tested 1.0895 during the week, has been declining for the past two days and dropped below 1.0895 during the Asian session last night. Whether it can rise above 1.0805 again during the day will be important. If it remains below this level, movements in favor of the dollar may continue. The economic growth data from the US will be quite significant.
New lows tonight are opening up hedging for the 1.0775 options. LSE Premarket has begun, London open in 1.5 hrs (8am London)
Action going on at 1.0815.
Options exercising above and selling, option writers buying below to hedge.
Update:
Sellers took over 1.0815… looks to be headed back to 1.0800
1 - Closed shorts at 1.0800 earlier in the day.
2 - Went long at 1.0800. Closed at 1.0840.
3 - Pending short at 1.0845:
Edit: Friday 00:50 UTC
Some notes before I update the chart
First area circled is the sell stops & large bids zone. Sellers dominated only to run out of gas and retrace up. This imbalance looked to last longer than a usual sell stop run… it did go about the usual depth of one, running about 13 pips below 1.08. I suspect short positions entered as well, adding to the buying pressure when they exited.
Second circle was all about option hedging at 1.0815. After breaking through sellers, price settled at 1.0830 at expiration.
Third circle is a possible exhaustion of the move, paired with a large option for Friday at the same level.
Updated order flow for Friday 5/31:
Retail Buy stops & pending offers at 1.0845 (AND an option)
Retail Sell Stops & pending bids at 1.0805
Large option levels at 1.0845-50, 1.0875 & 1.0800 (Blue lines)
More info on Bloomberg reported orders: Forex Orders - Forexlive
More info on Retail orders: OANDA Order Book
Edit Update @ 18:20 UTC
Price mowed through buy stops at 1.0845, taking it up to the option levels at 1.0875/1.0880. Option exercising took the pair back down where it’s settling to end the week at 1.0850.
