IMHO, the main concern of opening a position on Friday is getting stop out due to higher over the weekend margins requirement for most brokers or getting gapped out. Unless you do not have a stop loss order in place, you will always have to worry over the weekends. Some trader who are able to execute a hedging strategy well and is prepared to HEDGE with a pending buy/sell stop order instead may worry less. Question is hedging a worthwhile approach to forex trading in today’s world?
I find the following video explain hedging in forex best, feel free to take a look.
Normally, on Monday volatility is low and especially so during the Asian sessions. Pretty choppy with lots of fake out I would say.
Well, I’m in Bangkok now so the market opens at 4AM here and I don’t want to wake up at that time, although sometimes I do just for Forex… So leaving a position open for the weekend or entering a position on Friday (with a SL of course) is not a bad idea if you think the market will go that way you think it will.
I like NZDUSD because it’s easy to trade and there’s a lot of movement, candles are bigger on this pair. On the other hand, GBPNZD is a total mess lol.
There’s a strong downward movement here but I think at some point (now, for example) should retrace a little bit and then continue going down to last year’s low again. Weekly chart is ranging and is showing bearish movement, daily might retrace now a bit (couple of days) then continue to fall. 4H candles shows a wedge that has just broken. Just like two weeks ago. Will see soon. Long-term bias is totally bearish!
So I’m going to buy a little then sell around resistance area. Let’s see…
I’m trading on a live account for 4 months now. Haven’t traded on demo that much. I used a demo account to learn the trading software. I don’t like being on demo because it gives me a false image of how much money I can earn (with a $100k demo) and it doesn’t make me become emotionally prepared (emotional reactions lol) when trading on live. So I trade live with small money and with small risk so I can get used to it. I can afford to lose it if all my trades go wrong… at least there’s something to learn… a lot of things. And I have a realistic image and expectation how much I can really profit and lose… and earn later.
[quote=“Mordengaard, post:22, topic:147269”]
So leaving a position open for the weekend or entering a position on Friday (with a SL of course) is not a bad idea [/quote]
Although your SL will not actually be active while the markets are closed. If, when the market reopens on Monday, the price is beyond your SL it will be filled at that current price, not your stop level.
We did not get any gap up so I guess we can at least say that there was no need, at least on this occasion, to have bought on Friday as opposed to waiting for Monday, which would have also given a better entry on the long side as well as avoiding the weekend exposure risk.
So that was the theme of this thread…
But how do you fell about the direction from here? Are you still anticipating a rise?
There has been a significant fall so far with this pair and there are signs that the move may now continue downwards, but it seems this is mainly about the USD rather than NZD so it may depend on what the USD does prior to Friday’s NFP. Personally, I am waiting to see what the NY session does before taking a view, one way or the other.
Ok, I have to confess, since I couldn’t find anything better to do, I couldn’t resist a little sell here, it was looking so weak. But it is stalling around the recent lows and I decided to take the money and run! - for now - well its a sweetener for the month end anyway - and MayDay is a BIG celebration here…!
Well, it’s consolidating at the moment and couldn’t get past last Friday’s low… However couldn’t go upwards either… So I’m not sure now, gonna have to say that it’s more bearish than bullish at the moment… But will see at night and tomorrow where we’re heading. I’ll open a sell position and hopefully I can keep it open for some days. Until this point I was like it’s gonna retrace a bit but it’s just so slow hahaha…
Anyway, this is the only pair I have been trading but I might have a look at other majors as well. I’m just afraid to open two positions at the same time. What if I think both EURUSD and NZDUSD will go up, then I buy, then suddenly both goes downwards… and I lose twice. Because that wouldn’t make sense to buy EURUSD and sell NZDUSD right? I stick to the daily and 4H charts recently.
There would be little sense in taking both in opposite directions as they seem to be acting almost in parallel at present. The only other pair on my radar at the moment is possibly shorting USDCAD but I am not quite there yet on my 4-hour model. It is bouncing around its Friday (weekly) close but not yet through it…
I am still keeping a reminder in front of me that Friday is NFP, and tomorrow is May Day and a day off here to be spent on family things…
So I guess I’ll spend this week just sniping wherever a target appears. But, yes, NZDUSD is still negative until proved otherwise…on my model anyway!
[quote=“Manxx, post:29, topic:147269”]
The only other pair on my radar at the moment is possibly shorting USDCAD but I am not quite there yet on my 4-hour model. It is bouncing around its Friday (weekly) close but not yet through it… [/quote]
A nice example of trusting one’s model, discipline and patience!
I was really tempted at one point to sell this pair and 4H chart was indeed within a hair’s breadth of signalling a short - but it didn’t. It would have been so easy to pre-empt the signal are sell…but the signal never came. It has been playing around the Friday close and then today broke through the recent highs instead…on the other hand:
[quote=“Manxx, post:29, topic:147269”]
So I guess I’ll spend this week just sniping wherever a target appears. But, yes, NZDUSD is still negative until proved otherwise…on my model anyway![/quote]
This one did continue its move with a nice day trade.
But this is all digressing from the point of this thread so best to leave it there - just wanted to tidy up the loose ends…
[quote=“Mordengaard, post:32, topic:147269”]
Anyway, if I’d sell NZDUSD, why would I sell USDCAD? Aren’t they interrelated? So, if NZDUSD goes down then USDCAD should go up?[/quote]
Yes, you are correct in broad terms, but it depends a bit on what kind of trade one is looking to do. This is a daily chart for the last 2 years which shows the clear correlation. But if one is day trading then the correlation is not that tight and, say, 10-50 pips one way or the other is not out of the question. It is always good to remember that each pair has two currencies. If the major significant factor moving prices is USD-based then the correlation is going to be much tighter, but when a factor specific to CAD or NZD is relevant then it will not reflect so directly or immediately across both pairs.
The factor with USDCAD was whether we were about to see a retracement starting (which would have also cast doubts over whether to be short the NZDUSD). But my model never gave the “go-ahead” and, interestingly, if one looks at the Strong/Weak situation graphically there was no strong indication there either to anticipate a significant move on the USDCAD pair compared with other pairs:
It is not a good idea to enter the market just before it closure as the market shows gaps on the opening which can be of higher pips. It ia really a wild risk which does not have viable rewards. You have to wait for the opening of the market on monday. Stay profitable!
Long-term bias is totally bearish!
Let’s see…
Thanks.At this time I don’t think there’d be any chaos haha.
