Is it a good idea to open a position on Friday before the Forex market closes or should I wait for the daily candle to close and trade on Monday? What’s your thought and experience?
1 Like
I wouldn’t dream if it myself.
I like to enjoy my weekends free from trading worries.
But everyone’s different.
2 Likes
To take full advantage of the extended trends that forex pairs can live in for many month,s you absolutely should be ready to hold over weekends. Which day you get in won’t make it or break it.
But you seem to be talking about a strategy of holding just a few days?
1 Like
I wouldn’t normally do this on a Friday close either! Stop losses are not active over the weekend because there is no market open.
I guess it depends a bit on what kind of position you are looking at. But normally, I would expect the Monday opening to be fairly close to the Friday close and the market does often retrace back towards that level during Monday anyway. If there are major events over the weekend, then it might help your position - but it might equally well destroy it.
I dont see any sense in starting a position on Friday close if it is a short-term trade as the risk is too great. But if it is intended as the start of a longer term, positional move then I suppose one could justify it better. but then if the Monday opening is fairly close to Friday’s close does it really make that much difference - and there is still the risk of a major gap over your stop level…
4 Likes
Thanks for the replies. I would probably hold this position for a couple of days next week. It’s on a support now (daily chart) and if my analysis is good then it would take some days to reach the target. I’m not sure… there is a hammer forming but this day hasn’t finished yet! Maybe I should just wait for it to close.
On basis of holding a few days and closing before the end of the following week, I’d avoid holding over the weekend, its just an extra layer of risk, though you also forfeit the possibility of profiting from a development that would have helped your pair - what’s bad news for one currency could be good for your counter currency.
Then again, I would never take a trade with such a limited life as 5 days…
2 Likes
Bit of a dejà vu feeling here! Last Friday someone was looking at a market that had paused on a major support on Friday. But, it seemed, it only paused there for the weekend and then carried on through it on Monday…
If it is a widely recognised support there is unlikely to be much interest in selling into it on a Friday afternoon but that lack of selling pressure doesn’t necessarily mean that the price is going to bounce off it - although it might! 
What are you looking at here?
2 Likes
Manxx: Alright. Looking at the NZDUSD daily chart (and 4H for confirmation). It’s on a support now (daily) and about to break out of the wedge (4h chart) hence should go long here in my opinion.
Do you base your trades on the daily and weekly charts then? 
That has been quite a strong, consistent down move on NZDUSD since 16th April? The recent stalling could well only be profit-taking or lack of fresh selling ahead of the weekend? If there are no unexpected events over the weekend I would have thought it very likely that Monday will see at least a test of further weakness after that move that should see at least Friday’s close touched if not even lower?
I am a very, very cautious trader and personally, I would wait until Monday for confirmation that there really is a bounce here - but then I am a mouse when it comes to risk-taking and I don’t trade this pair anyway - so don’t let me influence your decisions! 
…but I will be interested to see how this works out for you on Monday!
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
2 Likes
Thanks for sharing your thoughts too.
Yeah it’s been going down since April 13 and last Friday (21) it didn’t even “think” about slowing down. Now, it’s been ranging for a couple of hours and can’t decide where to go. Bears got tired and there is a falling wedge that might break out soon… Well there’s only one more 4H candle to be formed so there shouldn’t be much happening till close. This time, for me, the daily candle is significant.
1 Like
Perhaps we can look at this again on Monday and see how things turn out. Interesting!
Have a great weekend!
1 Like
Definitely… and thank you! You too!
Trades are off the dailies, I use dailies and weeklies to assess trends. I never day-trade.
1 Like
An interesting close last night (Friday).
On an hourly basis the last few hours were quite strong but failed to rise above recent highs before drifting into the close.
The 4-hour doesn’t look much more than a small, profit-taking move at the end of a rather consolidatory two days prior to the weekend.
The daily candle is quite interesting. It has a longish lower wick and closed above its open. But overall it is a rather insignificant size body and - perhaps more significantly - failed at Thursday’s high. This again suggests just profit-taking ahead of the weekend rather than any significant sign of a change in direction.
But the theme of this thread is not where this pair might be going next, it is only about whether it was worth entering a long position on Fridays’ close or to wait until Monday and avoid the weekend exposure risk.
Based on the daily and 4-hour, it looks to me that there is little reason to expect a gap between Friday’s and Monday’s trading (excluding, as usual, any unexpected major events over the weekend!) which, surely, would be the main reason for entering on Friday?
If this exhaustion in selling is due to USD-related factors alone then we may well see a consolidative range-type week next week with some higher highs, as markets start to tune-in to the NFP expectations next Friday…but that is not the subject of this thread! 
NZDUSD 4-hour:
3 Likes
According to me, it’s not ideal session for trading, even I don’t use 1st 2 hours of Monday.
1 Like
It depends on your trading style and market position. Usually I try to close all my running trades on Friday. Because any geo political or fundamental may cause unexpected move of market.
1 Like
See also,:
1 Like
Thanks for the replies! So if it’s necessary, then it’s a good idea to leave it open.
1 Like
I am not too sure I understand what you mean here. Are you referring to the possible direction during next week?
My own view on this pair (which I don’t actively trade but am becoming interested in!) is that the down move has, at best, only entered a neutral stance. My technical approach only shows upwards on 1-hour chart but the longer term still has a lower bias to it - which, interestingly, is also reflected in Dennis’ “Trading the trend with strong weak analysis”.
In other words, you may well see some upward movement, but the greater risk is currently still of a further break on the down side. However, if there is a change in sentiment then there are surely a lot of shorts that will look to get out quick and you will indeed see a good upwards trade - but has there been a change in sentiment for this pair yet?
Being a wimp regarding risk, my personal approach here would be to rather wait for the price to move up and then sell into it as soon as the 1-hour chart gives a reversal sell signal back into synch with the longer term picture.
But this is just my personal view on things here
Have you a live open trade on this now or demo?
…or were you just referring to opening a position on Friday closes in general?
1 Like