Optimization (Walk Forward Analysis) Question

To the traders profitable and using WFA. What do you do when a WFA (10-15 year period) on a strategy and found that the most recent two years were at lost and increasing (2017 = -2%, 2018 = -9%) while the other years are profitable? Do you modify the strategy? Conclude the strategy is already not profitable? or do you ignore this because the average gain on 10-15 year period is positive, and continue trading this 2019?

What do you do typically with a situation like that and what are your experiences?

Any answer is appreciated, thank you!

Problem with calculations for WFA is weighting it properly.
For example as money supply doubles the volatility decrease by 50% each time.
Thus your trends become shorter and choppy.
While really long term trends are still occuring how many of use have the resources to withstand the ebb and flow of the market waves.

You are correct. I thought to examine closer the market where the strategy “failed” and determine somewhat if its reasonable like the market is trendless/choppy. However even if I look at it, there are really solid solution as one modification may lead to another problem, worse overfitting. I wanted my strat to be as simple as possible.

I wanted to know generally if those scenario occurred, (WFA with recent 2 years at loss) What is the usual conclusion that you come up with? strategy is already failing or its just a 2 year loss vs its recent good profit (its just maybe a drawdown)?

FYI. Im trading at H1. so longer term trends are somewhat kinda obscure in my H1 chart, unless its a straight trend without any consolidation.

EDIT: I have seen experiments/research/thesis where their recent years are zero to negative return. But since their WFA or backtest of 15 years is overall positive, there really isnt any attention given to the recent years nor any insight of what might be happening.

We have a few traders in my group that are data base and spreadsheet heros. They dig out data like you would not believe. Time Slicing of any thing trading imanageable. Me not so I’m just there to adsorb the logic and occasionally contribute with my understanding of cycles and momentum.

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