Parabolic SAR - that's all!

Howzit Dale, (yes u don’t have to explain it to me my china) :wink:

I realise the the psychological aspect can hurt you and it is something I will try put measures in to control before I start trading live. That is a good few months of reading, learning and demo-ing away… at this stage I am still not convinced it is viable full stop…

I am on page 52 and progressing slowly but at this stage I would like to ask a question that may be a silly, but here goes…

I have read a few a trading systems that recommend not trading on friday due to it being more ‘unpredictable’.

I am currently using oanda demo. You can choose to ignore weekend data and you can specify when you ‘weekend’ starts and stops.

So my question is: What If you ignore some of Friday and some of Monday data (not sure how much at this stage) to try and get PSAR (or any other trend indicators for that matter) calculated on ‘cleaner’ data. Would this possibly help reduce false reversal signals?

I applied this idea to a couple of daily graphs and noticed that ‘some’ of the false PSAR reversals dissapeared…

just an idea… I hope this hasn’t been covered in posts I haven’t got to yet.

regards
Brendon

Hi,

I have to admit that of late (it seems to have become more ‘pronounced’ lately) that the period between Sunday night and Monday morning New York time i.e. when the NYSE opens on Monday morning is a ‘dog’ i.e. nothing happens (at least not from where I ‘sit’) and the market definitely does not seem to have ANY direction whatsoever until Monday night after the NYSE has closed (and this applies to ALL the markets INCLUDING forex so please don’t anyone post saying that the NYSE has nothing to do with forex because believe me it does even if it’s only in ‘sentiment’). I have also noticed lately that Monday seems to be the ‘profit taking day’ (lately anyway) i.e. things go ‘roaring up’ on Friday and then on Monday seem to go ‘roaring down’ again with the same ‘fervour’ (although I would imagine that this ‘scenario’ will constantly change and happen at different times as the year progresses). I am ‘lucky’ that at one of my brokers I don’t get a ‘Sunday bar’ so that makes things easier. Having said that there has been so much ‘unanswered debate’ on this i.e. remember that the ‘Sunday bar’ includes the Asian session which is a ‘big deal’ so if you get a ‘Sunday bar’ do you just ignore it, combine it with Monday’s bar, or what??? As this pertains to Parabolic SAR: the problem is this: what if the signal received on Sunday is RIGHT??? Then you’ve missed a trade and to get in late is ‘suicide’. Parabolic SAR unfortuantely ‘is what it is’ i.e. it was designed to keep you ‘in the market’ no matter what and as soon as you ‘break the cycle’ you’re actually just ‘screwing yourself’. Having said all of that though: if you have a look back a few pages there are some ‘ideas’ that have ‘come to mind’ (I have not traded them so I can’t tell you with certainty whether they have merit or not). One of them (that I like even though I have to say so myself) is waiting for a ‘pullback’ in price before acting on a Parabolic SAR entry signal. From what I’ve see (more often that not) when the first Parabolic SAR entry signal is given there is almost always a retraction in price for two or three days and then the price starts moving in the ‘correct’ Parabolic SAR direction. Yes, of course, by ‘waiting’ for two or three bars you could very well miss a trade but is this the end of the world when the other trades that you are in are almost always profitable??? Anyway, like I said, it was just an ‘idea’ that ‘came to me’ and I ‘threw it out’ on the thread to see if it interested anyone and if anyone wanted to ‘demo it’. I mean, as I type, something else just ‘came to me’ i.e. what about ‘combining’ Parabolic SAR with ‘Chucky’s’ ‘3 bar pivot’ or whatever it’s called i.e. you do NOT enter on the first Parabolic SAR entry signal but watch the bars until you get a valid entry to enter in the same direction as Parabolic SAR from ‘Chucky’s’ system and then just ‘track’ the rest of the trade using Parabolic SAR and then repeat the process when you’re ‘instructed’ to stop and reverse by Parabolic SAR??? Just another ‘thought’ (I’m ‘full of them’ lately)!!!

The research I’ve done with PSAR is that it should not be used to enter trades, but to exit only. Use moving averages, MACD, RSI, ADX, inside bar, random entries, etc, etc, whatever works with you to enter trades, and then use PSAR to help you exit the trade. That’s what I’m doing now after testing PSAR for almost 5 months now. I use PSAR as a guide to where I should place my trailling stops, but I don’t blindly accept what PSAR tells me, you should look at what the price is doing, chart patterns, pivot points, etc, and then decide where to put the stops. Sometimes the stops indicated by PSAR are so stupid that I just ignore them. This is usually caused by huge price spikes. On other occasions the stops are just perfect, especially in those long and well defined trends. PSAR is a useful little mathematical tool but adding a bit of human thinking to the mix will improve your system considerably. Trade longer time frames (daily if possible) so you can have all the time in the world to properly look at the chart. :slight_smile:

Also, stopping and reversing is not a good method either. The chances of getting a very long streak of consecutive losses increase dramatically if you use the original “stop and reversal” method. All trading methods have series of consecutive losses, it is inevitable, but in a ranging period PSAR will kill you if you are always in the market. You can easily get 10 consecutive losses, followed by small wins and then another 10 consecutive losses. In my tests I had up to 18 consecutive losses. Maybe it works with commodities, but currencies I don’t think so. You should only trade in the direction of the long term trend, if the trade stops wait for another entry signal, don’t reverse it. It’s better to have less trades, but ones with much higher probability of being profitable.

Another thing, PSAR is highly susceptible to price spikes, so I’m my system I have 2 PSARs on the same chart, one is the original 0.02; 0.02; 0.2 using the high, close and low prices of the bars. The other is also 0.02; 0.02; 0.2 but it only takes into account the closing price of the bars. This one gives smaller initial stops, less reversals and smoother trends, try it on your charts. Note that this PSAR will only reverse if the candle CLOSES below/above the PSAR, unlike the original PSAR that reverses as soon as the price HITS the PSAR. I look at both PSARs, this gives me a much better feeling of what the market is doing and where I should put the stops. I usually put the initial stop loss using the modified PSAR, and then as soon as the price moves in my direction swith to the original PSAR. Or I can use an average of both… No 2 trades are the same so I try not to have a rigid rule regarding my exits. A mostly mechanical system with a bit of price action analysis is much better than a pure mechanical system, in my opinion :slight_smile:

Thanks Dale,

I remembered what you said about discount on the book so will contact you when I am ready to buy. Cheers.

Some nice words on the PSAR there PipAddict and I agree with most of what you are saying.

Thanks
Boca

Ok, guys, guys, guys, (and dolls although they seem to all have given up)!!!

Look: I’ve reached a point where I feel very strongly about something and I can no longer keep quiet about it (and I have put much thought into what I’m about to say here over the past couple of days so this really is not just another one of my ‘whimsical posts’ made ‘on the fly’).

Parabolic SAR is a GREAT indicator on it’s own. This business of ‘throwing everything but the kitchen sink at it’ to make it more reliable is just a waste of valuable time. I’ve been there, done it, tried it, and unless you’re in it for the ‘long haul’ and have sufficient capital to be able to withstand the inevitable whipsaws associated with Parabolic SAR without getting margin called, you’re ‘dead in the water’. Parabolic SAR was designed by a (very successful) commodities trader, Mr J. Welles Wilder Jnr., as you already know, and I see Parabolic SAR performing like a ‘dream come true’ every single day on Soybeans but I don’t see the same performance on the Dow and forex pairs (and I have it open on all of my charts ‘just for old times sake’ I suppose so I do see how it’s performing on different instruments on a daily basis). I really do believe that I have done everything in my power to improve it’s performance with the Dow and forex pairs and, as I type this message to you, I believe that a quote by Mr Wilder himself has become very pertinent to this issue:

[I]‘I know traders who can never seem to hang on and follow a good system because of a compulsive need for action. I know other trader who have a greater need to be right most of the time thatn they have a need for the money they can make’. (from ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ by J. Welles Wilder Jnr.)[/I]

This is where I’m at:

I am trading Mr Wilder’s ‘Swing Index System’ exclusively now and never, since the day that I started trading, have I had so many consecutive profitable trades and never since the day that I started trading, have I been showing a nett profit at the end of each and every single trading day as I am able to show now (and have been showing for about the last four weeks). I ‘kinda, sorta’ kept quiet about all this until I was sure that I was on the right track (unlike my very first post on this thread which was posted the moment I saw a huge profit in front of my eyes and just HAD to share without giving a second thought to what MAY happen a few days on)!!!

What I’m saying is this:

If you want to really be trading for a living using a system(s) that was designed by a professional trader that’s not going to cost you any more than a $45 book then buy the book and start making money. It’s that simple.

I must apologize if I have led anybody ‘up the garden path’ with Parabolic SAR and made it out to be something that it’s not but I, like all of you, are learning every day and, I could either continue ‘needing to be right’, or ‘call it’ like it is, which is what I am doing now.

Now if you’re interested in what I’m saying then here is the deal:

Buy the book!!! I am not prepared to assist anyone who has copied the book or acquired it by any other illegal means and has violated any copyright laws. Feel free to buy it from Amazon or from The Delta Society direct (where you will, as a babypips member, be eligible for a $20 discount. I stress, once again, that I do not receive any compensation from them whatsoever in respect of sales of the book and I am not affiliated to them in any way). Study the book until the concepts become second nature to you. Analyse the systems in the book. Work them. You will not be sorry that you did.

Know this though: the systems in the book are complicated to say the least, especially the ‘Swing Index System’, so if you’re not prepared to put in the hours and the ‘slog’ then don’t bother buying the book because you’re wasting your money. These systems are not ‘easy and quick’ shortcuts to making money. They are not ‘just another series of indicators’ to ‘slap’ on your charts and ‘hope for the best’. These systems are based on price action alone not indicators (although his indicators are used for confirmation but that’s the only role they play).

Now as you know (if you’ve read at least the last few pages of this thread) I have ‘coded’ all the systems detailed in the book into my Delta Stock trading platform so that they appear as ‘indicators’ on the platform. This allows me to trade any one of them without having to use Excel or do manual calculations every night and every morning which would obviously be time consuming. My offer to you is this: if you open a live account at Delta Stock, with a minium of $750 (or EUR or GBP), I will GIVE you the ‘coded’ systems and trade them with you. Yes, I am an IB for Delta, and yes, I will make commisisons out of your trades, but then why shouldn’t I? I’ve spent at least the last three months, night and day, ‘coding’ these systems into Delta’s platform and adapting them so that they can be used on any instrument or pair so the way I see it I’m entitled to some compensation for my work no matter how well my trading is going. Bear in mind that this compensation would be paid to me by Delta not by you. They get you as a new client, I get commission on the trades made by you, nothing is coming out of your pocket, and in return you are getting systems that work for nothing. I will also, for a time, furnish you with, by email, my daily entries and trade the ‘Swing Index System’ with you.

You may also ask ‘why Delta’? The main reason being that I have never had anything else but first class service and support from them, I don’t get orders slipped, I don’t get stop hunted, and I don’t have a problem getting my money out them when I want it. There is also the fact that I know the platform ‘inside out’ after all of this so I would be providing ‘first line support’ to you on the platform (which they are aware of).

Having said the above, on the other hand, you don’t need my ‘coded’ systems at all. You can trade the systems at any broker. If you have the knowledge and experience to ‘code’ the systems into your trading platform then feel free to do so. If not then do the calculations manually or use Excel. Either way I can assure you of success.

Now I know that the above is probably going to upset some people as it may be deemed an advertisement and a way for me to make some extra money. Before getting upset though, think about this: are we members of this forum because we have nothing better to do than type messages to each other or are we members of this forum in order that we can share ideas and trading systems with each because we have a common goal in mind and that goal is to make money from trading? Well I know, that although I love the forum and, in particular this thread, and I love all the people that have ‘put up with me’ over the past year, I’m here to make money first and foremost. I have found a system(s) that are consistently profitable and it is this that I am sharing here i.e. no different from anything else I’ve posted along the way. The mere fact that I MAY make some commission out of trades that you do should not be of any consequence. Put it this way: the commission would be being paid on something tangible that I’d be giving you that I’ve worked hard on i.e. it would not be being paid for an idea that I have shared here. Fair enough? On the other hand: so what if I’m making a ‘gazillion dollars’ in commission? If you’re making money ‘hand over foot’ (which you would have to be making if I was making a ‘gazillion dollars’ in commission) then is that not what counts here? I’d call it a ‘win-win’ situation wouldn’t you?

The bottom line is this: we could all hang around here discussing Parabolic SAR ‘ad infinitum’ and not get anywhere. I don’t have that luxury. I am so far behind on payments to creditors because of last years ‘fiasco’ that I now have to stop messing around trying to prove something to myself and I have to make money, daily, and I am now, and, for the first time since I started trading, I am confident that I’ll be able to start settling some debts after a few months, ‘the patience of my creditors willing’ of course!!!

In closing: none of the above means that this thread will be neglected by me (or anyone else for that matter) (I’m also assuming that after this post I’m still welcome here). I just know that there is no point in discussing something that obviously is not working for most people here so why not move on to something that does work. Furthermore: should the above be of interest to everyone then the discussion threads would be opened on babypips. Understand this though: if it becomes apparent that there are scanned copies of the material ‘floating around’ then I’ll either ask for the thread to be shut down or closed and I will definitely ‘gracefully bow out’ from the discussion group (I would obviously continue to support ‘my clients’ in the event of this happening but there would be no more public discussion or mentoring on the system(s) from me in the event of this happening). Strange as this may sound I look at it like this: spending a little bit of money goes toward showing ‘intent’ i.e. you’re serious about this business and are prepared to invest some time, money, and effort to be successful.

Edit:

If this post offends anyone then please let me know and I will delete it.

Administrators: if this post is ‘out of line’ then please also let me know and I will delete it. I would rather remedy the issue by deleting the message than be banned totally from the site (although it did take me a very long time to type and proof read I must tell you)!!!

Personally I see nothing wrong at all in what you are proposing Dale. It is open and upfront and seems to me to be consistent with the BPips philosophy of helping beginning traders (and perhaps not so beginning traders). I am certainly looking forward to receiving my copy of the book to see what the excitement is all about

Best Wishes

Thank you Tony, I really appreciate your input.

I for one cannot wait for you to get your book either because I know that you of all people will have some very useful insight into those systems because of your experience with support and resistance and candlestick trading and chart pattern recognition.

Why is it taking so long if you don’t mind me asking? Geez, I thought things took long to get here to South Africa (unless you pay an ‘arm and a leg’ for ‘Priority International Shipping’ of course which is sometimes more than the cost of the item itself)!!!

As far as ‘excitement’ is concerned: I’m not I’d use the word ‘exciting’ to describe the book. Having said that though: anything that enables me to ‘turn my financial life around’ is exciting!!!

As far as being open and honest about things: I think (hope) this thread ‘speaks for me’ and my intentions and, if I can keep the new traders away from the ‘sharks’ and make something on the side, well then why not. (Actually I don’t know why I’m going on about this commission thing i.e. it’s good but not THAT good. 25% of the spread is all and if everyone opened a mini or micro account it would be a long time before I’d be able to fund a single full size contract on the Dow out of my commission I can assure you)!!!

Anyway, like I said, what I’m saying is probably not going to be eveyones ‘cup of tea’ so if there are geniune objections to my last post then feel free to voice them and I will remove such post.

Actually Tony, seeing that I know your book is on the way, let me ‘wet your appetite’ a little with a quote from the introducton to the Swing Index (System):

[I]"One of the smartest technicians I know put me on the trail of this method with the following statement:[/I]

[I]Somewhere amidst the maze of Open, High, Low and Close prices is a phantom line that is the REAL market. This line is also indicative of the REAL swings the market is making". (J. Welles Wilder Jnr. from 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems, 1978).[/I]

Now if the above statement can be proved to be correct, which I feel I am able to do (now) on a daily basis, think of the ‘edge’ you suddenly have!!!

Happy reading.

Amazon to Australia is generally 10-15 days for shipping. It shipped 26/1 so should be any day now

DALE!! So I struggled through to page 86 of this thread only only to hear form you now that PSAR is not a holy grail!! arrgghhhh!!!

just joking, I realised very soon that it wasn’t a 'holy grail’
I stuck with the thread so I could see how you where all trying this, that and the next thing with PSAR and all the time I was learning from everyone and their experiences which I have to thank all for sharing.

I must admit that all the time I kept feeling people were missing the point, looking to hard at the indicator for the answers, and not the bigger picture. Even the basic principal of it being a ‘trend indicator’ where sometimes overlooked. I have learnt that no indicatros give magic answers, for the simple reason they are based on historic data. To be fair they did also say that in babypips school.

I am still not covinced that trading is a worth while venture for me. I am not sure i have the time, intelligence, capitol, and determination to make it work but from what I see, if you have those, you will find a way to make it work.

If anyone deserves success int this, Dale you do, and I hope you have found it in your ‘swing trading system’. I will be looking at that soon but at this stage I still think I may be a basic long term ‘position’ trader at most.

I am going to carry on reading this thread, I woder how many people have actually read all 216 pages…

Anyway, thanks for sharing with me and I am sorry I have not really contributed usefully.

regards
Brendon

Hi Dale

I would also like to quickly say I support what you are doing here with the ‘swing index system’.

I think it is a good thing and no one should question your motives if they have followed your posts on this thread from the start.

cheers
Brendon

Dale,
I love your open, honest, and fair view of the world. Each and every one of your posts seem direct from your heart. As you may remember I have the book but I haven’t gotten to the Swing Index yet. (Like you I got stuck at the PSAR and then on the ADXR.)

A quick question on the Swing Index… Can it be done on a daily basis? I only have 1-2 hours in the evening to work on my trading skills and can’t watch the monitor all day.

Another quick thought. I’d like to vote we start a new thread for the Swing Index. Not only would it help newbies sift pass the PSAR stuff but also make the thread a little less intimidating to read “all the way through”. Maybe we could call the thread “Grail Dale 2.0 – The Swing Index”. :slight_smile:

Thank you very much for the posts and encouragement Brendon.

I would actually like to explain to you (and everyone else) WHY Wilder’s systems, and, in particular, the Swing Index System, are working for me and after you have read this post I hope that you will change your mind and have no more doubts about this business.

Before I begin let me clear one thing up: the systems in the book are actual technical trading systems based on price action. They ARE NOT indicators. Yes, Parabolic SAR, ADX, and RSI are discussed in detail in the book but these ARE in fact (just) indicators (although once you have read through Wilder’s explanations, theories, and calculations, they take on a ‘whole new meaning’ and become ‘meaningful’ ESPECIALLY ADX and RSI).

Now as you (probably) have gathered I am absolutely useless at following systems that require a bit of ‘thought’ and ‘interpretation’ on my part. I am also absolutely useless at trading based on fundamentals. I don’t quite grasp them and I always call the end result wrong. I have a problem recognizing candlestick patterrns and chart formations while they are in the process of forming (it’s real easy to see them when they’re complete but I think it’s a skill or an art and only comes with years of practice and experience). Needless to say that not at any time in the past has any of the above worked for me.

Wilder’s trading systems are absolutely specific and leave nothing to my interpretation, intellect, or insight, and, most important, my emotions. For instance: the Swing Index System tells me when to buy or sell and at what price. It also tells me when to get ready for a potential stop and reverse. All of these ‘signals’, if you will, are mathematically calculated. There is no interpretation involved. I have tried to follow other trading systems like EMA trading systems for example. While I have no doubt they work they do not work or me. I mean to say: John F. Carter has some absolutely fantastic systems detailed in his book but he also has the experience and has developed the ‘knack’ of trading them. One of the systems in his book is the 8/21 EMA Pullback System (which I tried at one stage and detailed here sometime on this thread). The idea is to wait until the 8 crosses over the 21, then wait for a pullback to the 8, and then take a position. Well I just don’t have the courage or experience to ‘drive’ that system. I mean: when is a pullback a pullback? How far does the pullback have to be and how long does it have to last? How do you know that it’s a pullback? There is another system in his book that uses Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels. The idea is that you wait until the Keltner Channels are inside the Bollinger Bands and when the Keltner Channels move outside the Bolinger Bands then it’s time to take the trade based on the direction of the Momentum Indicator. Fine so far? I’m sure. Problem: If the Momentum Indicator is up then you go long and if it’s down then you go short? OK so how do you ‘deem’ the Momentum Indicator to be up? Must it just have crossed the zero line? What if it’s already at the top of it’s range? Is it not too late then to take the trade? Is it going to turn around just after you’ve taken the trade? Not sure? Me neither! Now I happen to know that John F. Carter is a very successful trader and is making a lot of money. I also know that he has been doing this for a very long time and I am assuming that because of his experience and knowledge the answer to any of the above questions is second nature to him. I’m sure that he has developed a ‘feel’ which can only come with time. I’m sure that had I started working in the back office of a broker when I left school I’d also have developed these skills and, who knows, by now I may have been the top hedge fund manager on Wall Street. I also think that if I pursue my trading as I have been doing in the last year for the next couple of years the answers to the above questions will also become second nature to me (and who knows I may become the OLDEST hedge fund manager on Wall Street)!!! The point I’m trying to make is this: Wilder’s trading systems (and I feel bad about even describing them like this because I think they really are ‘technical genius’) are almost like ‘trading by number’ (‘paint by number’???) and that’s why they work for me. In time I do believe that I’ll develop the skills that I need to NOT only trade these systems but be free to be creative in my trading but that time is not now and if I did not relentlessley work on these systems until I understood them and made them work for me then there would BE no more time to trade in ANY way in the future.

I hope I’ve explained myself well. I just hate to see people ‘floundering around’ (as I did for a long time) trying to look for something in an indicator that just is not there to be found. You know: it’s a funny thing and it only occurred to me the other day when I was having defend my losses to someone: this is like any other career. Why do doctors go to university for a couple of years before they can practice? Why do lawyers go to university for a couple of years before they can practice? Why do doctors and lawyers do an apprenticeship or internship before they can practice? Simple: to gain knowledge and experience. Trading is no different BUT for some reaon or the other we accept the fact that doctors and lawyers have to go through a process before they can start making any money but we (and people that know nothing about this business) expect to buy a book or two on trading, open an account with a broker, and start putting Warren Buffet AND George Soros to ‘shame’ within a month or two!!! And to make it worse it’s almost ‘expected’ of you by your peers!!! If you have not made a ‘gazillion dollars’ by tomorrow morning then you’ve failed as a trader!!! I think not!! Wilders trading systems are the absolute closest you’re going to come to making money with little or no experience I can assure you. If that buys you (me) time to move on to bigger and better things if the are indeed out there well then so be it.

Hey daxm,

Thanks for the post and the message contained therein.

There’s more though: see my previous post (I’m definitely on a roll today)!!!

The Swing Index System is DESIGNED FOR AND SHOULD ONLY BE TRADED on a daily basis!!! There is your answer plain and simple. OK, in true ‘Dale style’, I’m going ‘overboard’ again, but it’s paying off big time this time around i.e. at Delta I am spending an average of about an hour a night going through all the pairs, commodities, and indices, checking for entries and potential stop and reverse entries and then placing my orders accordingly. I can only do this at 01:00am South African time because that’s when Delta’s daily charts rollover. I am then up at 07:00am South African time (currently 00:00am New York time) to go through the commodities and indices at GCI. Here I do not have the systems ‘coded’ into the platform so I’m using Excel at the moment (still busy with the ‘coding’). This takes a good hour or two because I have to first export the data for each instruments, pull it into the spreadsheet, update the spreadsheet and indicator, and only then can I place orders etc. etc. etc. HOWEVER: if you’re only going to trade the major pairs, for example, if you keep up to date every single day, then it should not take you any longer than an hour at most to accomplish this even with Excel. It’s a bonus, of course, if you live in a timezone where it’s 00:00am at your broker but around 07:00pm at home i.e. you can still get some sleep!!!

As far as starting a new thread for all the systems in the book I’m all for that (always have been) but I’m just not too sure how many ‘subscribers’ we’re going to have i.e. does it really warrant it? So far I know of three: you, me, and Tonymand!!!

Dale,

Best of luck with your endeavors. Did you get a reply from Delta in regardds to your “guarantee”?

Hi Dale

I am very interested and will order the book.
I have a few questions about it to give me a general idea, if you don’t mind…

  1. Do you have to trade a lot of pairs/indices to be succesful? (does it need hedging)
  2. How long term (many days) do the trades tend to stay open?
  3. Is it more suited to forex or indices?

Thanks
Brendon

one more - what does it say about the USD/ZAR? I have been short for a few days already and it is starting to pay now…

Dale,
I’m all for what you are trying to do. I will be in touch with you soon in regards to purchasing the book and I totally take my hat off to you for your dedictaion to the cause and the time and effort you put into posting on here.

My only concern is Delta. I’m not saying that they are not good, it;s just that I found it very very difficult to navigate my way around their platform. Albiet, I didn’t give it much time, but I really was lost while trying to chart and come to terms with what was going on.

Anyway, I’m sure that’;s something that can be overcome with a bit of practice and time and effort. You’ll have to forgive me as I’ve had a few ales tonight, but I applaud what you’re doing and I look fwd to reading the book.

cheers.

Build it and they will come. :wink:

Hello everyone, and thanks ever so much for the posts.

uptick:

No, I have not received a reply from them as yet, but, to be honest, I don’t think they’ll go for it just on the off chance that something goes ‘sour’ and it would be their reputation at stake no matter HOW MUCH I make it clear that they are not the ones guaranteeing the losses. But then again, after some more thought, is this guarantee even necessary??? I mean I would only give the best signals out because it’s in my interest to make sure that everyone is profitable and that, I think, will ‘sell’ more accounts than any guarantee I am able to make. What do you think?

Brendon:

I trade anything and everything where I get a signal (in true ‘Dale’ style as mentioned) but no, I would say that if you only traded the majors at once, you’d be good to go. I have traded some exotics this week and made a nice profit (like EUR/SEK, USD/DKK, EUR/NOK) and even with the HUGE spreads things worked out nicely. I’ve added the ‘commdolls’ BACK to my ‘basket’ but the results are not that great AT THE MOMENT but the one thing I have learned about the system is that you DO NOT exit until you get a signal otherwise you will ‘kick yourslef to death’ because invariably when it gives you a signal it appears to always be right!!!

There is also a formula in the book called the ‘Commodity Selection Index’ which, based on certain inputs, tells you what the ‘best’ intruments are to be trading at that moment based on movement, leverage, margin requirement, etc. etc. etc. so if you have the time to ‘work’ the formula every day (or open an account at Delta of course, through me of course, then, of course, the CSI has been ‘coded’ into the platform as an ‘indicator’) then you could pick the instrument(s) that is / are the highest on the CSI scale and trade only that / those instrument(s). In other words: no there is no hedging involved. Of course if you’re trading EVERYTHING that ‘comes your way’ then you will obviously be ‘inadvertently’ hedging but it’s not a requirement of the system rather a ‘factor of greed’ on my part!!!

Most of the trades that I have done in the past month or so probably average two or three days but then I have some open now that have been going for week already (like Soybeans).

Due to the ‘modifications’ that I’ve made the system works on anything and everything (and they were not ‘modifications’ to the system itself it’s just that you have to be careful to take into account the way that different instruments are quoted i.e. you’ve got to be concious of the fact that a forex pair will have a price of let’s say 1.6199 but something like Soybeans has a price of 1369.50 and the value of a pip movement on forex may be, and is, different to the value of a pip movement on a commodity like Soybeans). Look, if the truth be told, all the system does is indentify MATHEMATICALLY the REAL AND TRUE swing points in the market much like a candlestick trader is able to do (and I’m sure that once Tony gets his book he’ll agree with me and see what I mean by that). Having said that though you don’t have to be able to recognize any patterns or formations or anything like that i.e. it’s purely mechanical (mathematical???).

Well done on being short USD/ZAR!!! I’m not in the trade because it has not ‘swung’ yet BUT if it closes anywhere near where it is right now i.e. at 7.6613 then I’d be getting a definite signal to go short and place an order just below the low of today (this point also ‘mathematically’ calculated). If this scenario ‘plays out’ today I would be placing an order to short at 7.5983 as per the system (assuming that the low did not get any lower today and, as I said, if it closes today somewhere near where it is now). By the way: I have, at the moment, the same scenario on EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR (BIG ‘payers’ if you’ve got the stomach for it)!!!

Boca:

I know what you mean about Delta’s platform. It really does take some getting used to but once you’ve mastered it you’ll see that it’s superb and very professional. I (personally) like GCI’s platform (but then again I think that it’s because I have an emotional attachment to it i.e. I’ve lost a good few $10K through that platform)!!! Anyway, it’s not something you need to worry about i.e. I have an (almost) direct line to support there and I am capable of providing you with first line support on the software and if there is anything that I cannot answer then I know I’ll be able to sort it out for you by contacting them. As I said: they are not full of ‘sh*t’ like everyone else i.e. there have been one or two ‘things’ that I suggested should be added to the platform and they actually took note and made the changes which are now in the current version. You know, that type of thing. You ask GCI to make a change for you and see how far you get??? You’ll be VERY lucky to get a reply let alone an update to the software (actually that’s unfair because GCI’s software is written by ACTForex and THEY could not be bothered to reply to any queries that you may have. You are, after all, ‘just a trader’ you know)!!!

Oh, and have a few more ‘ales’ for me. I can’t drink tonight as I’m still hungover from my ‘stint’ the other night would you believe!!!