dpat,
exactly. there’s nothing to gain by offering such a “guarantee” but an eventual lawsuit if things do go sour. we never know what tomorrow holds with trading. as much as we love our strategies there is nothing as a “guaranteed” strategy.
i’m glad you made that decision.
best of luck and keep in touch. let me know how things go for you.
Thanks uptick,
And before you know it I’ll be in ‘the club’ and have an account with Tradestation Securities!!! Then I can sit and listen to the NYSE ticks ALL DAY AND ALL NIGHT!!! (Did I mention that I’m obsessed with this business)???
Actually, again, this is something that might interest you: do you know that it’s possible to get a live audio feed from the trading floor at the NYSE? So that you can hear the ‘pit noise’. Apparantely this helps i.e. you apparantely, with enough practice, are able to ‘make out’ the ‘calls’ being made in the pit. I did sign up for a demo once but I never got it to work and never pursued it any further (mainly because to get the feed I think it was another $200 or something like that per month).
I’m subscribed to tradethenews.com… its pretty good. you download their program and it alerts you to breaking news and stuff. i get a little popup on the bottom right hand corner of my monitor. i know that they do have an audio feed if you like…but i never subscribed to it since it does cost additional. you should check it out…they might have what youre looking for.
Brendon:
By the way: there will be no signals on GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR tonight I’m sure (not unless something REAL drastic happens and the ZAR strengthens by ‘leaps and bounds’ against these two currencies). Sorry, I’m real tired, and I was not ‘looking properly’. USD/ZAR does not look like it’s going to ‘swing’ either so no trade for me. This, I must tell you, is the one REAL ‘beauty’ of the system i.e. you really only get into a trade when there is a REASON to be in the trade i.e. no market orders, only stop orders, and patience!!!
Why is this thread still there?
Who reads this???
Hi Dale
Yes u r right there is nothing happening technical wise on the GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR.
The slow turn on the USD/ZAR is more due to the USD weakening at this stage I reckon.
I still do believe that the ZAR is currently undervalued and should make a bit of a comback over the next month or so. I am currently only trading oanda demo so I don’t have a option to use GBP/ZAR and EUR/ZAR else I would have opened a trade on them too.
I posted this on the newbie forum a few days back, not sure if u saw it. It is more of a fundamental analysis on the ZAR
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/10612-usd-zar-long-term-trade.html
What I like about being short on the USD/ZAR is the carry, mitigates some of the risk
cheers
Brendon
Hello Brendon, it is ‘I on the midnight shift here’!!!
I thought you said that you don’t think that you can trade??? I think that your insights and comments on the fundamentals of the ZAR and your thoughts on the trade are excellent!!! (OK, well, I’m not sure just how much that means coming from me as I think by now you are well aware of my ‘fundamental analysis skills’).
OK, well, where the ZAR is concerned I do agree with you i.e. it’s been a very long while since it’s been at this level. On the other hand I am experiencing first hand, for the first time, WHY South Africa is deemed to be an ‘emerging market’. I mean, let’s face it’, of all the things that I never in a million years expected to happen to us, was that we’d run out of power for crying out loud (I did some IT work for Eskom ‘eons’ ago and at that stage all our power stations were running and I went to quite a few of them back then and seeing and remembering this mammoth infrastructure of back then it’s hard to imagine that we have a power crisis now). My point is this: even I am wondering what ‘the next surprise’ in going to be!!!
Although I may agree with you on the ZAR I don’t have the ‘balls’ nor the capital to think of taking a trade like that. One of the ‘oustanding features’ of trading the ZAR is the fact that it’s a very good ‘payer’ (is the term I always use). ???/ZAR only has to move just a few pips (after covering the humungous spread of course) for you to make some ‘buku bucks’ but if the trade goes against you it can wipe you out on a grand scale. Someone in my household, against everything I told them, decided to go long EUR/ZAR (this in spite of the fact that I told them that the Swing Index System had not given a signal yet) at the end of last week. Not only was one position taken but three (to add insult to injury) and although they were mini lots and the total margin requirement was something around $24 USD this person had lost nearly $70 two days later and there was only one red candle in the series so what I’m saying is that, in effect, one ‘bad day’ nearly killed the account now can you imagine investing or trading something like $5 000 USD and being wrong??? Nope, not for me, not for this, boy, not anymore!!! If, however, I get a ‘swing’ signal then there would be no hesitation on my part to take the trade. If I’m wrong I’m not going to wipe my account out and if I’m right then I’ll make some nice profit. One other thing you need to consider (just bear it in mind if you have not already done so) is the ‘cost of carry’ i.e. just make sure that if you’re thinking ‘long term’ that you’re getting PAID interest and that you’re not PAYING interest. On ???/ZAR positions I would imagine that the rate is quite high so just be careful. I have a few positions on Soybeans that I’m holding on to right now and they’re doing VERY nicely but it kills me to see the interest that I’m getting charged for holding those positions every night!!!
On page 105 of the New Concepts book there is a worksheet for the Swing Index. I’ve tried to use Wilder’s math to recreate the worksheet in a spreadsheet and I am finding that my SI values are different from the one he calculates about 33% of the time.
Dale, did you experience that too? I’ve quadruple checked my formulas as well as my O, H, L, C, N, K, R, and L values against his and they all look good to me. I must note that I still have about 10 R values to cross check with the book but so far so good.
Hello daxm, and well done getting this far (I know it’s a 'pain in the ar*e but you won’t be sorry)!!!
I also ‘pulled my hair out’ and I cannot tell you HOW many times I have recalculated that worksheet. It’s drove me ‘nuts’ for days!!! I even had two other people ‘do the math’ just to make sure that it was not me who was being a total idiot!!!
Anyway: the good (good???) news is that there is a mistake on the fourth line of the worksheet i.e. where the SI is 15. I have tried for months (off and on) to get to that SI of 15 and ‘no go’. It’s definitely a mistake. The ‘correct’ value for the SI on that line is 24 (or 24.38 if you don’t ‘round it’). The way to check if the rest of your calculations are correct is to substitute the correct value of 24 with HIS value of 15 and you will see that the rest of your calculations will agree with the worksheet in the book BUT the SI value of 15 is incorrect i.e. it should be 24 based on his prices.
Let me know when you get to the ‘good part’ of calculating the ‘Trailing Index SAR’!!! That’s another ‘funny’ but you’ll see what I mean when you get there.
just demo’ing dale,
not going to put real money down for a few months at least
Why??? It’s not fair that I’m the only South African to have lost money!!! Open a live account!!! Now!!!
Hey 'buddy ‘ol pal’: I hope that you’re going to all the concerts and things over there that I cannot go to!!! Have you booked tickets for the Download Festival yet???
Hi Dale
New to this thread and only on page 210! It’s killing me to have to read the whole thing. :eek: not enough time in this world. Been live since December doing hedge plays and very careful moneymanagement. Lost some despite all that. Great learning experience. demo accounts dont teach the emotions that go into trading…not even close! As a Capey(as in “cape town” for all the un-initiated…), is there a way i cant get your book by doing a non ebay thingie? i guess there is a thread somewhere on this but i cant read them all to check…
Enjoy your commitment! keep it up.
Hey this is great,
Welcome fischerb, welcome.
OK, well, it’s not MY book (wishful thinking on my part i.e. I ‘wish’ I could have figured this all out on my own)!!!
It was written br Mr J. Welles Wilder Jnr. and it is called ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’. It is available from Amazom or directly from Mr Wilder’s organisation known as ‘The Delta Society’. If you order it direct from ‘The Delta Society’ you will get a $20 discount from them on the book as a babypips.com member. Unfortuantely you have to email me on [email protected] so that I can give you the discount code which you enter when ordering in order to qualify for the discount (they did not want me to post in ‘publicly’ although I suppose anybody could join babypips just to get the code but anyway). Please note that you have to pay shipping, handling, and, in our case, VAT and customs duties (yes we do get ‘nailed’, badly here) but the $20 should cover all of that (I think. I don’t remember because I bought mine from Amazon early last year).
Ok, well, I suppose it had to come some time!!!
I guess if the truth be told I’m very attached to this thread and I hope it’s not going going to ‘die’!!! I guess I’ve been ‘putting off’ this decision for too long now. Sorry. (Geez, I almost have a tear in my eye)!!!
Ok, well now that I’m over that, LET’S MAKE SOME MONEY!!!
dosen`t the parabolic sar repaint itself ? I noticed if I disconnect from my broker and reconnect the dots are different…once were over but now under price
Hi there! For my first post: I’m a South African too, (living in Amsterdam though) and I’ve lost lots 
Not with a live account though, just opened a trial account a week ago and am still a complete and utter n00b.
This thread rocks
If you are living in Amsterdam then YOU HAD BETTER MAKE SURE that you go and see After Forever and Within Temptation (for me)!!!
Welcome to the thread.
If I can be of any assistance then let me know.
A word of advice: before you get TOO excited about Parabolic SAR then ‘mosey on over’ to 301 Moved Permanently if you want to make money.
Parabolic SAR will not, I don’t think, be given too much attention on the new thread (even although it’s the first chapter in Wilder’s book). Parabolic SAR certainly has gotten it’s ‘fair share’ of attention on this thread I can tell you!!!
If you’re talking about the July 22 concert, I think I’ll probably be in S.A. at that time 
Thanks! I’ll definitely try and pick your brain. I just got bitten by the forex bug a little over a week ago, registered a demo account before even finding babypips or doing any research, then proceeded to net $32000 in two days and thought I was going to be disgustingly rich soon. Thankfully it wasn’t a live account, because of course I lost far more than that in less than a day 
Thanks again! I’ll study diligently
They are calculated (mathematically) from the previous stop and reverse point to “now”. I can only imagine two cases where they would be on the other side of the chart.
You’ve refreshed your screen right when your broker’s closing day occurred AND right when the calculation of the SAR created a Stop and Reverse instance (hence the new dot is “going the other way”)
You’ve relogged in and set your timeframe to a different scale. Therefore you are seeing a longer/shorter trend that wasn’t seen in your first chart.
Hello,
daxm:
Thanks for ‘fielding’ the question BUT I have to say that I have seen it too i.e. if Parabolic SAR is penetrated at ANY time during the day (period???) and you have the ‘facility’ to ‘refresh’ your charts (and if you don’t then the ‘refresh’ would be done when you logout or disconnect and then login and connect again) it CAN ‘change places’ or ‘jump’ from one side to the other depending on you charting package or broker. That’s why the ‘classic’ way would be to wait until the daily bar closes and base any trading decisions on Parabolic SAR AT THAT MOMENT. The problem is, of course, that this requires discipline for the simple reason that an hour later Parabolic SAR may get penetrated AGAIN in the opposite direction and it takes a lot to ‘stick to the indicator’ when you just know that you have another 23 hours of ‘nail biting’ to go before you’re able to act.