Depaterso…
great job, a quick questions…
-“114% profit for the month”, are you saying that you doubled you money+ 14%…(eg.start…$100 + (114%) 114 = $214.00…I should know this but things can be tricky…If you did this, WOW!
rereading thread!
Suggestion: Maybe you could summarize your trading rules as it stands, since you made a profit. It might help in getting more trades posted.
FYI…Monday is Laborday in the the US…everything closed!!
thanks, and great job again,
generalz
Hi,
OK - well you are referring to ‘profit for the month’ and I’m referring to ‘capital gain for the month’. I’m not sure if you mean the same thing as me but yes - your calculation is correct.
Actually - I was going to post the calculation anyway for those of you who are wondering and do not know how to work out your percentage capital gain for any given period (month in my case).
% Capital Gain For The Period:
( ( (ACB + WTP ) - AOB - DTM ) * 100 ) / ( ACB + DTM )
Where:
ACB = Account Closing Balance at the end of the period
WTP = Withdrawls during the period (money taken out)
AOB = Account Opening Balance at the beginning of the period
DTM = Deposits made during the period (account funded)
I also have another idea for stops and take profit:
What about taking profit (or loss) the very moment that you have doubled the amount of margin used for a particular pair / lot? In other words - let’s say a particular lot cost you $500 in margin - you take profit when the profit on the lot is also equal to $500 without exception. That’s 100% profit is it not - and then - you just keep doing this on each and every single trade.
Comments?
Anyway - to put (my) monthg into perspective for you:
If I could repeat this performance every month from now on (let’s say only hitting 100% capital gain per month) then, by my calculations, after another four months I would be $13600 USD ‘shy’ of being a ‘dollar millionaire’ (excluding withdrawls of course from my accounts) and that my friends is a ‘s**t pile’ of ZAR!!! Now - if that’s not encouragement and a reason to keep going - then I don’t know what is!!! Realistically speaking though - I do believe that the profits that I made this month are inflated - purely because of the market volatility at the moment. Having said that - so what if it takes twelve months to achieve this - that’s good enough for me.
With reference to Edison (who somebody else referred to earlier on in this thread which really served as encouragement for me): let’s hope the light stays on this time!!!
Edit:
Oh - I forgot - I think somebody asked me what my trading strategy is. My trading strategy is detailed on this thread: 301 Moved Permanently 
. Once you’ve read it then please do come back to this message and tell me what you think.
Another edit:
For those of you who have in fact read this thread and are following me then read on:
I have just had a look at all of the pairs tonight (just for interest sake) and I can tell you that it looks like I did (finally) get out at a good point today as most of the remaning pairs / positions that I had open seem to have reversed slightly. This, unfortuanately, I have to admit was pure luck (not sure if I’d call it ‘judgement’ - not sure at all).
It is also interesting to note that only twice during the entire month was I stopped out by Parabolic SAR (I did not stop and reverse because I was very unhappy with the pairs e.g. GBP/CAD just cost me money) and if I’m not mistaken there were only another two stop and reverse points during the whole month. I think that if we get a decent exit strategy here we’ve got a winner with Parabolic SAR.
Regards,
Dale.
Dale and all
I am preparing for a day of football and of course I had a idea since we are deailing with the daily TF maybe we need to look at even longer TF for exit help.
I came up with this and wish I could take credit for it but it really came from some one elses idea.
Put monthly pivots on our chart and dont be greedy.
Either take a portion in profit once the next pivot line is broken and move stop to BE, let ther rest ride moving stop up one pivot line each time a pivot is hit. Maybe even taking a little more profit on each pivot.
Or Just let it all ride and move stop at each monthly pivot.
here is the indicators and template.
Let me know what you all think. At least it is a exit strat. that we dont have so far. Need to do some real time testing to go with the backtest.
About forgot this there is also the momentum(15) see if you think it helps.
win daily par sar.zip (5.54 KB)
Good evening,
Thanks for the post and idea.
Just to clarify one thing though: ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR DOES give us an exit strategy - maybe just not the best or most profitable one.
On the other hand - I do like the sound of this. I have used pivot points for trading in the past - they work pretty much ‘like a charm’ with the Dow I must say i.e. with the Dow - whenever I have plotted pivot points (daily pivot points that is) - and then drawn fibo lines - the pivot points and fibo lines are almost to the exact price - within a PIP or two - more often than not (at one stage I resorted to plotting pivot points and then used the pivot points as reference points to draw fibo levels - kind of ‘putting the cart before the horse’ type of thing - but be that as it may - it did have some merit). On the other hand - I can guarantee you this - that the day I plot pivot points on a chart - I let you know which instrument and which time frame - because you can be almost 100% certain that the price will trade to S3 / R3 and beyond - and not stop at S1 / R1 or S2 / R2 like it’s supposed to!!! Happens every single time with me!!!
So what you are saying is that we stick to our daily charts for Parabolic SAR entry and then use monthly pivot points for exits as you describe above? Put it this way - if you get to a point where your current Parabolic SAR dot is being displayed ‘close too’ or at an exact monthly pivot point you exit no matter what (or use a ‘scaling out’ technique which is what you are describing above). This way you are not ‘messing’ with ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR as far as stops or stop and reverse points is concerned.
This does make a lot of sense - it’s the ‘greedy’ part that is the most difficult to overcome (for me anyway).
What keeps ‘nagging’ at me is that I have still not - to this day - let all of the pairs / positions run their full Parabolic SAR ‘course’ as it were. Actually - (I don’t know why I did not think of this before - it just came to me as I was responding to you) I should duplicate all of my live trades from tomorrow night (I may wait for Tuesday night as the USA is on holiday on Monday) on a demo platform and then, assuming that I can’t help myself and take profits early on live trades, let the demo trades run and then see what happens. Now that would be a good test (although you all know what it will do to me if I’ve taken profit early and the demo results indicate to me what a fool I was)!!! Actually - this sounds like an even more attractive idea i.e. Delta runs a monthly demo trading competition (in addition of course to the live trading competition) if I’m not mistaken. The prize is not a whole lot (I think it’s a couple of hundred EUR or something like that) but hey - it’s still incentive (I’m just not sure if you can be competing in the live competition and then still be eligible to win something if you also have a demo account open - I’ll check though).
Anyway - thanks again for the idea, and the post, and the attachments.
Good on you.
I think that we have a good ‘collection’ of people following this thread - and I just know that we are bound to come up with the ideal ‘system’ (maybe we can call it ‘Perfect Parabolic’ - nah - that’s ‘cheesy’ - but you get the idea)!
Keep 'em coming!
I must just tell you that I can’t wait to address one or two of the other systems in the book with you guys (and they are actual systems - not requiring indicators as they are based on the price action alone). Like I said in a previous post - I’m just awaiting confirmation on something from someone - and then I’ll have a nice little ‘surprise’ for you guys (at least I hope you’ll feel that it’s a nice surprise).
I’ll tell you something that has become very apparent to me in the past couple of weeks / months - and that is - maybe the markets do ‘react’ far quicker than they could a couple of years ago - but - the same fundamental and technical analysis still applies today - and that ‘new’ is not necessarily better.
Regards,
Dale.
By the way: when you say that you are ‘preparing for a day of football’ what exactly did you mean? Where are YOU from?
Hi Dale
I must say that SAR works!!! I double my account from 1k to 2k USD in one week. Before knowing the SAR I was pretty much losing, but not anymore. BTW, can you recommend me some reliable fast chart sites? I already know dailyfx, but they dont offer 4 hour charts. Thanks
Alan
Hi Alan,
I’m very pleased to hear that Parabolic SAR has worked for you as well as it has. Please just do remember though - that I still firmly believe that the results that have been produced through the use of this indicator over the past two or three weeks - are ‘accelerated’ and ‘inflated’ - purely because of the daily volatility that the markets have been experiencing of late. Having said that I do believe that Parabolic SAR works very well - just don’t be dissapointed if you have not doubled your account again this coming month (September). Of course I’m hoping I’m wrong but I seriously doubt it and only time will tell.
As far as charts are concerned - I cannot help you there - the charts are integrated in all three of the trading platforms that I use - so I have never had to nor attempted to use charts independant of the (my) trading platforms.
Sorry.
Regards,
Dale.
Ok back to business, I did just a little back testing. Only on GBP/USD and from the first of 2007. Jan 4 to date. This may be more then a little surprising to some.
Yes some of the pivots are close and I took them in this exit strat and they save you some times and some times take half off early
My test went this way.
First pivot line take half off
Second pivot line take a quarter off
Let the last quarter run to stop or next parsar signal.
Remember you move the stop to the first pivot line when you hit the second one.
If you ran the course par sar signal to signal, there was 8 losses and 5 wins, but a total of +951 pips. Using 1 standard lot that would be $9,510. If you look we have had a lot of movement since June that May or may not be there in other years.
If you used the monthly pivots for and had 2 targets and a final stop.
I did not account for spread in this backtest.
1 loss -215 pips
12 wins.
T1 = +1111 pips $5,555
happened 12 times, 9 times under 150 pips, 4 of those under 100 two under 50
T2 = + 1105 pips $2,762.5 happened 3 times
Stop = +1657 pips $4,142.5 happened 3times
Total $$12,460
Or if you only took half at first target then let the rest run and still moving stop at each pivot. You would get half out at T1 and half out at stop.
T1 -1111pips $5,555
Stop = 1657 pips $8,285
Total = $13,840
You tell me what to do let it run or use pivots. Im not sure if we will get more of this market volitility but if we do this method will catch good protion of it. And you wont have to check the computor but once a day. Most trades where 2 weeks or longer.
Not perfect more like Practical.
Maybe using Fib levels in some way we could improve this some.
either way it will take a willingness to backtest, then the patieince to let it run with the plan.
Good Morning!
Hope you all had a great weekend (it’s Spring here is SA so life’s good)!
OK - well - life is ‘almost’ good - I wish the trading situation was as good as the weather!
I’ve just gone through my ‘Daily Parabolic SAR Worksheet’ (which I have attached for reasons detailed below) and there is not one single valid Parabolic SAR entry point anywhere. Not good.
Now this has only served to reinforce my belief that you cannot exit early with this indicator no matter what. The reason I say this is because once you have exited or closed your positions you may have to wait days, maybe even weeks, to get a valid Parabolic SAR entry point again and the major problem with this is that it affects your average long term profits i.e. there is no point in making $5K or $50K or whatever in August, for example, and then not being able to trade for the next couple of weeks because you have exited early and are now waiting for valid Parabolic SAR entry points. In other words - while your short term profits may abound - it’s the average of your profits over a long term that counts. Comments?
So - what to do now?
Anyway - like I said - I have attached a scanned copy of my current ‘Daily Parabolic SAR Worksheet’ for you to look at. Actually - I have attached it because I want somebody who may have better ‘vision’ and ‘understanding’ than me to have a look at it and see if they can see some sort of ‘trend’ or ‘meaning’ in the columns ‘D’, ‘W’, ‘M’, ‘GD’ and ‘OD’ (description of these column headings below). Basically a green ‘tick’ means that the direction of Parabolic SAR is up for that time frame and a red ‘tick’ means that the direction of Parabolic SAR is down for that time frame and a black ‘tick’ means that the pair has not been tradeable live long enough for Parabolic SAR to have been calculated and plotted for that time frame.
I have looked at this and I do not see any correlation between the columns / time frames / direction of Parabolic SAR for that time frame and I don’t see any reason to EVER complete these columns again (it took ages) unless somebody else has some input on this. In other words - with the exception of USD/CHF which has Parabolic SAR going in the same direction on all three time frames (and even this I don’t give too much credence to) - I don’t see how checking the direction of Parabolic SAR on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames can assist you in making a trade. The only possible merit I could see of doing this exercise would be to check the direction of Parabolic SAR on the Daily time frame and then only take trades in that same direction on the four hour charts and trading based on the four hour time frame using Parabolic SAR is not something I’m comfortable with anyway.
Anyway - for those of you who love ‘statistics’ and stuff like that - take a look - you may be able to see something of value that I’m not seeing. If you do - please post.
The column headings (on the right side of the worksheet) are as follows:
‘D’ - Daily
‘W’ - Weekly
‘M’ - Monthly
and
‘GC’ - Gold Daily (for ‘commdolls’)
‘OD’ - Oil Daily (for ‘commdolls’)
The other column headings are (on the left):
‘S’, ‘M’, ‘T,’ ‘W’, ‘T’, ‘F’ - Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
‘E’ - Entry i.e. Long or Short (this is the info I used last month to update the Parabolic SAR ‘reports’)
‘WL’ - Watch List (again used last month to update the Parabolic SAR ‘watchlist’ or to add ‘price alerts’ for myself)
droesparky:
Thanks for going to all that trouble and backtesting and posting your results.
The only thing I want to clarify with you: I assume that the abbreviations ‘T1’ and ‘T2’ refer to ‘Target 1’ and ‘Target 2’ i.e. not to support and / or resistance levels correct?
Regards,
Dale.
Hello,
Just thought I’d let you know that I feel like a ‘beggar’, a 'bottom feeder, a ‘low down good for nothing’!!! I’ve lowered myself to ‘scouring’ the four hour charts for some Parabolic SAR trades. Nothing!!! Nada!!!
Man this is a real anti-climax compared to last month!!!
What to do???
Looks like I might as well move my ‘drinking night’ up to Monday afternoon!!!
Maybe I should have a ‘braai’ or ‘barbeque’ for lunch - nothing happening here!!!
Mind you - it IS Monday - AND it’s ‘Labor Day’ in the USA - so I don’t suppose I could expect anything interesting to happen today anyway.
Needless to say - there is even less point looking at the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq!!!
The only reason I know that I am not the only person in the entire universe that is awake at the moment is because Gold and Oil give the odd ‘jump’ now and then. If it wasn’t for that I’d think there was something wrong with my network!!!
Where is everybody???
Have you ALL also taken a ‘Labor Day’ holiday’???
Regards,
Dale.
I’m still here to keep you company Dale 
I only managed to open one PSAR trade since I last posted and am waiting for some others to change direction… It does mean that you don’t need to watch the screen all day though. Do you do any intraday stuff for fun whilst you wait ??
Cheers
Steve
Hey Steve (popeyeuk):
Thanks for the message - I was getting worried there for a while.
Mainly I use the ‘Trend Balance Point System’ intraday on the Indices (which I hope to be able to start a thread about very soon - just awaiting permission - and something else from someone to get going) but today - it does not matter what system or indicator you use - nothing doing today!!!
Actually - that’s one of the reasons that I gave Parabolic SAR another VERY SERIOUS look i.e. the above system is a bit ‘cumbersome’ as far as calculations etc. etc. are concerned so you can’t use it on too many instruments at a time because by the time you’ve done the calculations and either opened positions or reversed positions the prices have moved too much!
I am again looking at the four hour charts to fill that need of ‘having to have a position open’ but the one or two pairs where a new Parabolic SAR dot has appeared indicating a reversal seem to be range bound or there is little or no volatility so I have managed to ‘contain myself’ and not open any positions but it’s eating my ass!!!
Help!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Well Ive been around today also. being a Holiday in the US it is not a lot of movement but there was some. quick little pop up on g/y then drops.
yes Dale T stands for target.
Here is a interpretation on using the Laguerre indictor. I think it might help us some on exits. when we see it turn against us before the parsar changes. Check it out. Ill upload it incase you dont have it.
Laguerre shows the overall trend and a long cross is up through 0.15 heading towards 0.45, and should usually stay above 0.75 throughout the long trend. A short cross is down through 0.75 heading towards 0.45 and should usually stay below 0.15 throughout the short trend. Sometimes it will break below its long of 0.75/above short of 0.15 and quickly come back, that’s why it needs to be heading to the 0.45. For our purposes, the 0.45 isn’t a “0 line”.
Laguerre.zip (853 Bytes)
Hey droesparky:
Thanks for the info and message.
I’m assuming that the ‘Laguerre indicator’ is for MT4. Unfortuanately I am not trading much at the broker where I can use MT4 - not enough pairs (and they seem to be going through a slight ‘legal’ problem at the moment anyway so I’m staying clear until I get direction). I do use their MT4 for ‘verification’ purposes on some of the pairs that I’m trading (or TRYING to trade today) at Delta but the pairs available to me on MT4 are extremely limited so I can’t really even comment. Sorry.
Regards,
Dale.
Nah chaps - I’m ‘stepping away from the vehicle’ today - otherwise I’m just going to get ‘burned’.
This is now my second ‘round’ of checking the four hour charts and this has also just reinforced my belief that this indicator was developed for and is meant to be used on the daily’s - nothing more - nothing less.
The only thing that looks remotely interesting to me today is the price of Gold and Oil. Parabolic SAR on these two appears to have a couple of days to go (well maybe just more than a couple of days) before a reversal comes and then those of you who trade ‘forex only’ can also jump on the ‘bandwagon’ with AUD/CAD/NZD/ZAR pairs (for those of you lucky enough to be able to trade the ZAR that is) and make a small fortune if your lot sizes are big enough!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hi droesparky
I’ll play around with the Languerre. I have seen it before but never paid it much attention and I use MT4.
Dale I am trying to formulate a 5 minute system to relieve the boredom. At the moment I have an EMA crossover signal an MACD and something called a “Slope direction Line” - this basically looks like a slow moving average line which changes colour when there is a change in the main trend… Looks quite promising…
Cheers
Steve
Dale I was looking over some charts on Oanda platform, they dont have a lot of goodies you know. But they have parsar.
There gold chart is gold vs the USD, and it it putting the long signal for gold today.
What I was noticing is that when price a the parsar come together price sometimes takes it out with a good move.
Do you enter when you see that price has moved thru the old parsar line, before the new day when you know there is going to be a signal.
This is not a repainting indicator so we dont have that to worry about. This might give us a jump on the entry.
what do you think?
Hello.
droesparky:
On my daily Gold charts Gold has been in a ‘Parabolic SAR uptrend’ (hey - that’s a good term) for about the last ten trading days or so - same with Crude Oil (daily). I just know from following the Gold charts that the time will come soon that it will reverse (I don’t believe this ‘mumbo jumbo’ about Gold going to $700 USD and beyond anymore) - I’m not saying take a long position on anything right now - wait for the reversal on both Gold and Oil and then I reckon you can ‘go mad’ on AUD/CAD/NZD/ZAR.
For interest sake I have attached the (my) current Gold and Crude Oil charts.
Actually - in case you’re wondering - the green Parabolic SAR dots are plotted using the default (numeric) parameters for this trading platform and the red Parabolic SAR dots represent Parabolic SAR with modified parameters i.e. modified so that the representation of Parabolic SAR on this trading platform is the same as the representation of Parabolic SAR on MT4 and at Delta. The default on this trading platform gives too many false signals for my liking. I have touched on this before in this thread i.e. the default (numeric) Parabolic SAR parameters on this trading platform are identical to those of MT4 and at Delta and yet the Parabolic SAR representation with those self same (numeric) parameters is totally different on this platform. Go figure. Parabolic SAR (default numeric parameters) on this trading platform gets you in earlier and out earlier but at a cost i.e. instead of staying in the trades for an extended period of time you would be stopping and reversing many more times and for the most part would lose money or at very least your overall profits would be reduced because of all of the false signals.
Anyway - getting back to the subject - what I’m saying is - I reckon that if you wait for Parabolic SAR to reverse on both Gold and Oil - and then wait for a valid Parabolic SAR entry signal on AUD/CAD/NZD/ZAR - you should be good to go. But you have to wait for these to turn around first otherwise you’ll see your a**e!!! I’d hate to be long GBP/ZAR and Gold does just decide to go to $1000 an ounce for some or the other reason!!! That would give new meaning to the word ‘carnage’!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Dale do you enter at the start of the day that you see the parsar change or the end of that day?
Most methods are traded on close of a bar or candle and thats the way I figured the backtest. Ill have to back check and see how much difference it makes getting in on the first of the day.
Hi,
Sorry - I forgot to answer your question.
No - over the past couple of weeks I have realised that if you open a position or stop and reverse before the candle has closed you are (most of the time) looking for trouble. Basically I would no longer open a position or stop and reverse until the candle or bar has closed for the period (day). You may lose out on a couple of PIP’s doing it this way but it’s far better to lose those PIP’s than be wrong and the price moves with a vengeance in the same direction it was going in before penetrating Parabolic SAR. I did this last month on GBP/ZAR and it cost me dearly.
Wait for the candle or bar to close.
Having said that - what I did try last month though was to open a position or stop and reverse the moment Parabolic SAR was penetrated and, if I (false Parabolic SAR stop and reverse signal) was wrong and the price continued to go in the direction it was going in before penetrating Parabolic SAR, I kept the position until Parabolic SAR actually did reverse and then doubled up the position. This is risky though - do it at your own peril - and - if you are going to do this - make sure you have enough margin to carry the loss until Parabolic SAR gives you a signal to stop and reverse and then double up the position. The logic behing this ‘move’ is so that at least you can cover the loss sooner to at least break even on the position i.e. without having to take a loss (which drives me nuts when it happens).
Regards,
Dale.
OK - well - forever being the optimist - I decided to check the daily charts a little early this evening - mainly to see if there was anything worth waiting up for. Still nothing.
The only two pairs where Parabolic SAR MAY give a valid entry signal tonight are EUR/RON and EUR/SEK but I’m not sure I’d take a chance on either of these at the moment.
Anyway - let’s hope that by tomorrow night - things are ‘back to normal’ as it were and we get some direction although if I have a look at all the majors the Parabolic SAR dots are far away from the prices so it could be days before some valid entry points come our way. This is why I’m convinced that there is no shortcut with Parabolic SAR i.e. if you ‘bail out’ early you lose far more in the long run than you may possibly have lost short term. ‘Tradevesting’ is the key - long term - stick with it - you know - all of that - which I just cannot seem to force MYSELF to understand!!!
Anyway - no point in staying up tonight - and to be honest I don’t see anything changing in the next couple of days (at least not on forex anyway).
Regards,
Dale.
