Good Evening Everyone!
Sorry folks - I was outside making a fire for a ‘braai’ or ‘barbeque’. There is nothing quite like a warm late afternoon / early evening spring / summer night here in South Africa. If you people make enough out of Parabolic SAR come and visit my country - I’ll give you the ‘grand tour’ and subject you to the worst ‘hangovers’ known to man (we just have to avoid the lions and elephants in the traffic on the way back from the airport but that’s nothing to be scared of as I’m used to it and I’ll be your driver anyway). You know that’s a joke!!! Right??? The part about the lions and elephants??? Just a joke (I’ll have our Department of Tourism knocking on my door if I don’t make it clear that the part about the lions and the elephants WAS A JOKE)!!!
Oh - man - now we are all really ‘getting our teeth’ into this - it’s fantastic - thanks for all the great posts and info.
cgrey:
Sorry - I am ‘guilty as charged’ of posting conflicting statements about stop losses and / or stop and reverse points. Put it this way - I’m not sure myself to be honest. I know how it’s ‘supposed’ to work but sometimes I suppose I ‘take a chance’ or make a ‘judgement call’ (which ironically is one of the reasons that I like this indicator so much i.e. I don’t want to have to make nor be able to make ‘judgement calls’ because my ‘judgement’ ain’t that great)!
Put it this way: the way I figure it is ‘supposed’ to be is that you only stop and reverse when you get a Parabolic SAR dot indicating a reversal i.e. in the opposite direction when the candle has closed NOT when the current Parabolic SAR dot has been hit i.e. not immediately when Parabolic SAR is penetrated. The reason I say this is because if I think about it logically - when Parabolic SAR was ‘invented’ (for want of a better word) a trader would only have known at the close of the day (candle) that Parabolic SAR had been pentrated during the day i.e. Parabolic SAR was only calculated and plotted after market close in those days. Make sense? In other words it is only by virtue of the fact we now have online systems etc. etc. that we can actually see Parabolic SAR being penetrated in real time. Now whether or not, because of the technology available to us today, this ‘rule’ still applies - I don’t have the answer. I do know that I have (sometimes) stopped and reversed immediately when Parabolic SAR has been penetrated and (sometimes) been ‘lucky’ and (sometimes) not so ‘lucky’. I am really starting to be of the opinion that the best way to go is to not trade with stops at all i.e. you only stop / stop and reverse when you get a Parabolic SAR signal (dot) indicating a reversal (the next day or on the close of the current candle) and not when Parabolic SAR is penetrated. I know this ‘flies in the face’ of all you’ve ever been taught or learned (as far as stops and / or stop losses are concerned) but with this indicator I have, more often than not, proved to myself that (even on the daily charts / time frame) it is possible to get ‘whipsawed’ out (the ‘Parabolic whoops’) and if you have a stop loss set the loss is immediately realised or - even worse - you stop and reverse - and then the price starts going back in the direction it was going in the first place. In this scenario you have lost twice - once when you initially stopped and reversed and again when the price retraced AND you HAVE to be on hand to enter a new stop loss value or stop and reverse value on the new position otherwise your new position would just get ‘dragged’ into a loss in this scenario and you may only ‘catch it’ when it’s too late. As a matter of fact - to demonstrate - this has happened to me twice, for example, on EUR/SEK in the past couple of weeks and has happened again today on EUR/SEK (my one lonely little position). In other words - had I been trading with stop losses or stop and reverse points set I would have been ‘whipsawed’ out earlier today and instead of showing a (currently) $149.31 profit (‘whoopee’) I would have written off an (albeit small) amount. Again - in this scenario - had I set stop and reverse points not only would I have lost on the intial stop and reverse but the new stop and reverse position would have been dragged down with the price as well (I would not have been around to see it happen so it would have been impossible to place a stop and reverse on the new stop and reverse position if you know what I mean).
Whew - I hope that all makes sense - it ‘feels’ a bit ‘jumbled up’ to me - but I know what I’m trying to say - so - if it does not make sense then please let me know and I’ll try and explain in a more ‘concise’ or clearer way (I’ll try anyway).
Ingot54:
That was a great post - and I thank you for commenting on the fact that my ‘discipline’ is improving. It does not feel like it to me but that is really encouraging to me and it will help me to become more ‘disciplined’.
I’m glad that I’m not the only one getting ‘sleepless nights’ though!!!
I really like what you have to say and it makes TOTAL sense. What’s really great about it is that we would still be sticking with ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR. Now why did I not think of this (OK - be fair - I did suggest that you enter on the daily but use the four hour for exits but the four hour is - like you say - too far ‘removed’ from the daily to be of any use). The good news is that I have just checked on my Delta platform and - guess what - I have 8, 12, or 16 hours available to me - never looked before. Like I said - I REALLY like this plan - I mean - it makes TOTAL and UTTER sense. That’s the only drawback of this indicator i.e. the price HAS to reverse and you HAVE to lose some PIP’s at the end in order for Parabolic SAR to indicate a reversal and a new position in the opposite direction - and - I think - you may just have solved that problem. Good on you. If you have 18 or 20 hour charts available to you then you are better off than me but even 16 hour charts will lessen the inevitable ‘end loss’ if you know what I mean. Really great. Thanks.
As far as second indicators for exits is concerned - I would not - especially after your ‘five star’ idea above!!!
droesparky:
Man - you really seem to be the MT4 ‘expert’ - thanks for that info. I must say that I really do like MT4 - but if I have to make a choice between using MT4 and trading with Delta - then MT4 is out of the window for me I’m afraid. But I do know that your info will be extremely useful to others and not just those that subscribe to this thread. Thanks again.
jguy3348:
How did you ‘slip’ that post in - you must have posted while I was typing this ‘mammoth’ message.
Please do let us all know what you come up with. Yeh - letting profits run has ALWAYS been a problem for me I know - but - trying hard, REALLY hard, to change the error of my ways!!!
Why do you say that your approach is so different from mine - just for interest sake?
Above all - I’m just so glad that everbody is ‘back to work’ today - man - it was getting lonely here!!!
Oh - by the way - have you seen Gold today! Man oh man! What goes up must come down and I can tell you that when Parabolic SAR tells me that Gold has reversed I’m selling ZAR and AUD and NZD and buying GBP and EUR and USD with everything I have! And if it does in fact go to $700 an ounce or beyond (see - I told you earlier - if I say something is going to happen - then something does happen - just always in the opposite direction) - then things are even better!!!
Edit:
Just to give you an idea as to why I ‘bang on’ about my beloved ZAR: GBP is almost 1000 PIP’s down against the ZAR JUST in the last three or four hours. Now even with a 100 PIP or so spread on the pair that’s still a 900 PIP move on ONE SINGLE PAIR in three or four hours!!! And then there is still EUR/ZAR and USD/ZAR!!! Now when they reverse . . . !!!
Anyway - thanks again everybody. This feels good!!! We’ve got something good going here!!!
Regards,
Dale.