Good morning Folks.
Dale, you do have a point about the MACD signal. I have also noticed that when MACD is close to the zero line, it seems to signify a ranging market rather than a trending one. That’s the case on all the charts I’ve looked at.
Dale, I just looked at your EUR/NOK pair and saw that it had a 70 pip spread…:eek: How do you trade pairs like that?
And I thought a 10 pip spread was very high:rolleyes:
Hello ‘Just Joan’,
Dale, I just looked at your EUR/NOK pair and saw that it had a 70 pip spread. How do you trade pairs like that?
I know - it’s great isn’t it!!!
How do I trade pairs like that??? With ‘BIG ONES’ and a lot of faith in the (our) ‘system’ (oh - and ‘MARGIN’)!!!
I take it then that GBP/ZAR would not interest you???
Seriously though - it’s all relative (in my humble opinoin that is). I mean to say - when EUR/USD with its 1 - 3 PIP spread moves it moves in 1 PIP increments - BUT - when something like GBP/ZAR moves it ‘F***S OFF’ if you know what I mean. With these ‘favourite’ pairs of mine - it’s just being able to survive the initial ‘shock’ of seeing the monetary value of the spread when it appears before you upon opening the position - if you can survive that you’re good to go!!!
Regards,
Dale.
LOL, Well on that particular pair, MACD has almost crossed, Stoch is heading up out of the oversold area where it has been for a while and psar has a dot on the daily. Well I took the trade, even though the high spread scares me but if I can’t trade it comfortably on a demo, there’s certainly [B]no way [/B]I can trade it live so here goes nothing…
Evening all,
I’ve been a bit busy so I’ll have to go back and read the last few pages of the thread but here are my current positions as they stand just now.
I’ve had a few positions stopped out in the last couple of days as this is when I have switched to the shorter time frame (3H) to lock in profits. Although I have closed profitable trades, it would appear that some of them could of run longer for more profits but I believe you got to be happy with what you got.
[U]Open Positions[/U]
AUD/JPY Long (Re-opened position after reversal signals on 3H time frame)
EUR/AUS Short
EUR/JPY Long
EUR/CHF Long
GBP/USD Long
All of the above are showing profit with the exception of GBP/USD which is currently at a loss.
[U]Closed Positions[/U]
GBP/USD. Closed manually for a loss after Fed rate cut. -50 pips
USD/CAD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +350 pips
XAG/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +5000 pips
AUD/JPY Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +180 pips
AUD/NZD Short. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +100 pips
NZD/USD Long. Stop Loss on reduced time frame for +190 pips
So far so good and a few opportunities coming up by my charts.
Cheers all,
WOW - was that bad timing or what ‘Just Joan’???
I don’t know if it has ‘JUST’ happened to you or if you missed it - but EUR/NOK gapped down (it actually gave me quite a fright when it happened because all my alerts went off - cellphone / email / workstation - all at the same time) and I thought ‘what the f**k is going here’ - it CAN’T be EUR/NOK!!! Anyway - IT WAS!!! BUT - I’ve seen this happen before - so I IMMEDIATELY went long on EUR/NOK and GBP/NOK - and - hey presto - the price retraced - so I did not lose anything and made enough to cover my ‘crappy’ EUR/CHF ‘nothing position’ (yet another reason to NOT trade with stops by the way)!!!
Anyway - after the above little ‘glitch’ I have closed ALL of my positions again INCLUDING EUR/CHF!!! LET’S START AGAIN (at least I broke even - can you believe that - after almost three weeks work and late night after late night going through my ‘wishlist’ - and I broke even - maybe $30 profit IN THREE WEEKS)!!!
Again - there IS method in my madness (by closing all my positions again) i.e. YOU CANNOT ignore ANY of our ‘new rules’ i.e. everything was ‘perfect’ with EUR/NOK EXCEPT THAT MACD HAD NOT YET CROSSED!!! We are really onto something here BUT there can be NO EXCEPTIONS to ‘the rules’ I don’t think!!! There can NEVER be an ‘EXCEPT for this … and this … BUT this …’ in our plan EVER again!!!
Please don’t be put off my ‘favourite’ pairs e.g. EUR/NOK, GBP/ZAR, EUR/ZAR etc. etc. etc. (Joan - have a look at USD/RUB - that thing pays off big time and the spread is not that much comparatively speaking). They DO make BIG money - but - as stated above - YOU CANNOT BREAK ANY OF ‘THE RULES’ - AND I’M MORE GUILTY OF DOING THAT - AS YOU ALL ALREADY VERY WELL KNOW - THAN ANYONE ELSE ON THIS THREAD although ‘Just Joan’ ALSO ‘just’ fell into the trap I think i.e. ‘MACD has ALMOST crossed’!!! Wow ‘Just Joan’: ‘FIVE OUT OF SIX AIN’T BAD’!!! Sorry - couldn’t resist!!!
Anyway - I closed out everything - broke even - and from this minute onwards WILL NOT OPEN A SINGLE POSITION UNTIL EACH AND EVERY SINGLE ONE OF OUR ‘RULES’ ARE SATISFIED - YOU CANNOT GO WRONG - YOU MIGHT JUST HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE IS ALL!!!
Every single position that I have opened in the last two or three weeks where ONE ‘rule’ has not been satisfied has pretty much turned to ‘sh1t’. Actually - I don’t know what is going on with the forex markets - everything seems to be ‘hanging on the edge’ as it were - or is it just me??? I mean - it appears that all of the recent trends are just coming to an end (all of the recent trends that I missed I might add) but the reversals seem to be taking quite some time to start!!! I suppose this means that forex trading is pretty much over for me for this month (I have no idea how I’m going to pay bills and am trying everything in my power to NOT draw on my capital) i.e. nothing is going to reverse and start trending between now and Friday I don’t think BUT I’ll keep looking - you know me - ‘forever the optimist’!!!
Let me see if I can ‘work some magic’ with stocks before Friday!!!
I am going to start working on our ‘Version 1.0’ and post it when I’m finished - you can ‘pull it apart’ from there!!!
By the way - I wonder what ‘those people’ think now - you know - the ones that ‘took our system’ and didn’t like all the ‘additions’!!! You know who you are and what I’m talking about!!!
Regards,
Dale.
ROTFL, I knew you were gonna get me for that.
Honestly though, I’d rather make all my expensive mistakes on a demo account than a live one…
Dale,
Will look fwd to version 1.0 when it comes out.
Cheers
Scott
may i ask what other indicators you are using? i have oanda too, and somehow i failed using PSAR only mostly coz of my impatience, as soon as i see red numbers my eyes go O_O and i chicken out and close the trade. Trades which are supposed to be working, fails on me coz i wait too long (due to greed?) until i exit… i have to work on my complete BS attitude being too much of a “greedy chicken”
btw, Dale, i like this thread, your daily rumblings are fun 
i am about to chicken out another trade with a loss, but before closing i thought i better ask you guys what you think of this trade? where was my mistake?
i looked at the H1 and saw it was going down nicely, then i looked at the H3, and saw a dot at the top and entered somewhat on the opening of the next H3 bar…
Hello CharlesLioe, welcome!!!
Thank - at least SOMEBODY is reading my daily ‘ramblings’!!!
Anyway - I’m not sure what you’re trying to say in your previous post.
You say you looked at the 1 hour chart and THAT was going down and then you looked at the 3 hour chart and entered when the first dot appeared? I think that’s how I read it.
Well - firstly - put it this way - MY opinion of course is that YOU SHOULD NOT EVEN BE LOOKING AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE DAILY CHARTS - but that’s just me - I DO know that there are a whole lot of people who are using this on the smaller or shorter timeframes and are making (what would appear to be a whole lot) of money. I’ve just been burned too many times on the shorter timeframes AND IF YOU’VE READ THIS THREAD FROM THE BEGINNING THEN YOU’D KNOW WHY I SAY THIS!!! YOU HAVE READ THE THREAD FROM THE BEGINNING HAVEN’T YOU!!!
Secondly - IF you INSIST on trading the shorter timeframes then - IF I UNDERSTAND YOUR POST CORRECTLY - you’re doing it the wrong way around i.e. some people trade this ‘system’ by looking at a HIGHER or LONGER timeframe, seeing what Parabolic SAR is doing on that HIGHER or LONGER timeframe and then trading the NEXT LOWER or SHORTER timeframe in the same ‘Parabolic SAR direction’ NOT the other way around. In other words - for example - check the ‘Parabolic SAR direction’ on the daily chart and then trade the four hour chart in the same direction as the daily.
As far as you being ‘chicken’ is concerned - if you went short (sold) on that 3 hour chart then you should hang in there. Seeing as you’ve HAVE read the WHOLE thread then I don’t need to explain to you where to put your stops now do I!!!
Actually - this is a question I’ve been meaning to ask: Oanda SEEMS to be the ONLY broker where the trading platform has a ‘standard’ 3 hour chart - I’ve never seen that before. Why 3 hours? Just out of interest sake I’d like to know. Or is the theory something like: ‘3 - 6 - 9 - 12 - 15 - 18 - 24’? Just curious (Delta has 3 hour charts as well BUT as an ‘extra’ not as a ‘standard’ if that makes sense).
JUST TO RECAP FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE READ THE WHOLE THREAD BUT BECAUSE IT’S SO LONG AND YOU’VE HAD TO TAKE IN SO MUCH INFORMATION SINCE READING THE ‘NEW RULES’ AND ARRIVING AT THIS MESSAGE:
Daily charts ONLY (just me) with the following indicators:
Parabolic SAR (for entry and stops)
'Akrams Alligator’
MACD
RSI
Stochastic (Slow)
ADX
And don’t bother reading further to find out WHAT the above indicators are supposed to be indicating - IT’S DETAILED IN A PREVIOUS POST - SO LONG AGO THAT EVEN I CAN’T FIND IT ANYMORE!!!
No seriously - I hope you all know that I’m really only joking with you - BUT - the ‘new rules’ are were very nicely laid out in a post not too far back from this one (my ‘original’ and then a very nicely laid out ‘summary’ by Ingot54) - AND THEY WORK. Put it this way - I think that the most important ‘findings’ on this thread have been made since posting those ‘new rules’ so there really is no point in skipping over the posts since then i.e. there are a lot of ‘little things’ that have ‘come out in the wash’ since posting those ‘new rules’ so you really need to go and find that post and read on from there otherwise you’re really just going to come ‘unstuck’ like I have in the past two or three weeks (uh - oh - sorry - I almost left ‘Just Joan’ out there)!!!
Also - and equally as important as the ‘system’ itself - there is a whole lot of ‘personal traders psychology’ (‘daily ramblings’) detailed throughout this thread (albeit my own ‘psychology’) which I reckon will go a long way toward sorting out your lack of patience or ‘anxiety’.
Anyway - how’s that for a ‘welcome’!!!
By the way ‘Just Joan’ - looks like I WAS lucky to close out EUR/CHF - not sure WTF is going on with this pair (or any other pair at the moment for that matter)!!! What’s happened to YOUR EUR/NOK???
Regards,
Dale.
I still need to read the entire thread but I’ve spend some time looking at it and the system appeals to me because:
-
I’m trading with extremely small capital. I started with $1000 but lost most of it. So a need a fairly foolproof system to help me regain my precious little capital and then some.
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My intraday screenwatching methods so far take up too much of my time.
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This system is short term swing trading, and you all kinow you cant do decent swing trading with small capital. Even short term swing is dangerous but with the coaching of you guys I’m willing to take the chance.
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If this method rescues me I will teach it to others.
So hear the good news. I actually used Parabolic all on my ownsome lonesome after reading the dailly charts yesterday. I went long on USD/CHF and exit today because of analysis. I booked 43 pips. Praise the Lord!!!
Oanda analysis suggests strong Swiss and weak US might see sell. right now Oanda is showing a sell signal. What do you guys think. You can respond here as well as at my blog.
See my blog at forexology.
Glendon (forexology)
PSAR gang,
I decided last week to look into currency trading again - I did some practice trading a few months ago but got busy with work and lost interest. I don’t have time to work out a difficult trading method, so my hat’s off to Dale, etc for developing a great plan! I’ve read this thread with great interest and I’m excited to try it out in a new practice account.
I actually use only the PSAR and MACD. It seems to tell you whether or not the pair is trending or ranging, and in which direction it is moving, as well as providing for earlier entries and exits. Of the 11 trades I entered (all of them well after the first PSAR dot formed, but I wanted to go ahead and get in the market), 3 stopped out [my stupid fault on all 3, btw], and 4 others are positive pips for a net gain in NAV. If the other 4 don’t turn I will probably get a signal the other direction.
My question is, which pairs are best to trade? Also, I use Oanda and noticed that EUR/NOK spread gets as low as 25 pips if you keep your eye on it…
Hey Glendon, and hello and welcome.
I have had a look at your blog - nice - just one thing - my name is ‘Dale’ not ‘Dave’.
Also - why is there a link to ‘that other site’ and NOT to this one?
A word of advice: people ARE going to come ‘unstuck’ if they use ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR and don’t have enough margin and a lot of pairs to trade i.e. even although it was ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR that gave rise to this thread we (I) have been through a very steep learning curve in the past couple of weeks with this and I can tell you that as nice as the idea of ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR sounds it COULD spell disaster for the reasons mentioned above.
One other thing - I can tell you this - that this ‘system’ is NOT (meant to be) a ‘short term swing trading system’ - that’s been the point all along.
Anyway - please don’t think I’m dumping on you particularly - and if this ‘system’ helps you ‘get back’ - then we’ve all accomplished something - and I know everyone here is very willing to help. I’m just trying my best to ensure that nobody loses money because of this thread and this WILL happen if only a portion of the information contained in this thread is ‘selectively’ copied and posted somewhere else.
I am going to say this for the last time (and again this is NOT directed at you but to the next person that posts a message saying that they’ve had a look at this thread and have not really gone through it yet but they will ‘soon’ and then ask a question that has been asked and answered many times before previously in the thread): if you do not read this thread in its entirety you’re going to come ‘unstuck’. If it was THAT easy to make ‘consistent’ money or profits by opening positions based purely on the Parabolic SAR ‘dots’ then I can assure you that there would not be a trader in the world that used any other system. Think about it - the traders at the big brokers would only have to work an hour a day - and still make their ‘trillion dollars’!!! I ‘hit it big’ about two months ago using ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR but I know now that I just happened to be on the right side of the market at the right time.
Anway - I cannot emaphasize the above enough - and I won’t be emphasizing it again. My more ‘patient’ ‘colleagues’ will be more than happy to oblige I’m sure!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hey dr_zeus, nice to have you ‘on board’ (‘PSAR gang’ - I like that)!!!
I cannot answer that question for you because I personally will trade all the (44) pairs available to me when all of our ‘rules’ are satisfied (right now I’d trade my shoes if they had a valid PSAR entry signal on them)!!!
It is, however, something I have wondered about myself i.e. would it not be better to just ‘stick to the major crosses’??? Don’t know. I have done a fair amount of ‘commentary’ on the subject of whether or not (or how) to trade the ‘commdoll’ pairs WHICH I’M SURE YOU HAVE ALREADY READ ABOUT HEY!!!
Anyway - good question - input from anyone else???
Regards,
Dale.
hello everybody,
I am back again.and welcome to every one who is new in this thread!!
so i am missing lots of posting here although i read all of them!!!
I think it is the time now to sell any thing realted to CAD.why i am saying that CAD as i mentioned earlier in canada they r going to drop the intrst rate in october and this what every one is saying.the oil is dropping down so as Dale’s rules if the oil is going to drop down that means the CAD is gong to be affected big time.i looked to the cahrts the MACD with any thing realted to CAD is about to cross over please dale check them through your broker and tell me your opinion as i am convinced to open lots of postion concerning the CAD.
Regards,
Akram
I read your input on using gold/silver to determine entries to commdolls, so I’m interested to see the result of that method compared to a pure commdoll entry over a few months. If AUD, NZD, CAD are as comm dependent as we all think, it should be a valid improvement.
The reason I ask about which pairs to use is because I’ve read that some pairs tend to get range bound, some pairs are lightly traded, and others have high spreads that make a profitable return difficult (USDTWD, for example).
Also some pairs are highly correlated, i.e. it doesn’t make much since to buy EURGBP, sell EURUSD, and buy GBPUSD since the 3 trades cancel each other out.
We also probably want to balance the portfolio so we are too weighted toward any currency. I’m long EUR by $13,784, short DKK by $11,935, short USD $7,121, and the other 12 currencies are between $900-$4500 long or short. Is this balance enough?
(Or does this even matter? - if USD is dropping, all USD pairs will be affect the same way and wouldn’t we want to be on the paying side of each pair?)
One other thing - has anyone noticed a significant improvement in return by using stochs, rsi, alligator, and MACD to filter PSAR versus just using MACD? Since all four filters measure the same thing - range vs trend - I’d think using one (MACD is my choice) would keep the signal-noise ratio down.
pip huntter,
CAD certainly looks setup for a move on Oanda - I use two sets of MACD (12,26,9 for buying, 8,17,9 for selling) and the selling signal is turning. However, the lines have not crossed, and PSAR hasn’t given me a dot, so I’m not taking the trade yet.
OK u right with the MACD they r not crossed yet but the PASR in my broker sofware is shown in the opp. direction but i have to wait till it closed today to make sure that i do have a vailed entry.
so if things goes well i will jump on it and go on selling as i am convinced that it will not be more going to be strenthened against all the currencies.beside the oil is already having the same signals like the CAD.
Akram
Dale,
did any one get back to u concerning the PSAR difference?
Akram